New Contender Would Face Barriers to Late Candidacy : Democrats: The party is anxious about its presidential hopefuls’ weaknesses. But deadlines to compete for a majority of delegates have passed.

With each new set of primary and election returns, a conflict underlying the Democratic presidential race grows sharper.

On one hand, the failure of any clear front-runner to emerge adds to anxiety among party officials about the weaknesses of the current field and spurs interest in the possibility of some new contender entering the race. House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen are the names most frequently mentioned.

On the other hand, the obstacles to any last-minute candidacy are becoming more formidable.

The basic problem is the “front loading” of the nominating calendar. Many states are eager to hold their primaries early in the season, hoping that they will have more influence, and have been encouraged to do so by national party leaders, who believe that a short nominating campaign will give the Democrats time to unite for the general election.

“We have designed a system to get an early nominee,” says John C. White, former Democratic national chairman. “And we have put more emphasis on that than on what kind of nominee we will get.”

Many states also have early filing deadlines, which make it all but impossible for any late-entering contender to amass a majority of delegates.

But even more fundamental than the arithmetic is the lack of a candidate with the will and nerve a late starter would need to beat the numbers game, justify his candidacy and overcome the inevitable resentment he would encounter from supporters of those already in the race.

“We didn’t have anybody with that willpower in 1988, when people were calling our candidates ‘the Seven Dwarfs,’ recalls Tom Cowley, executive director of the Maryland Democratic Party. “Where would we get someone like that now?”

Still, the dream of a last-minute hero will not disappear for good until one of the present contenders establishes a clear claim to the nomination. “At this point, when you look at this field, you don’t see anybody who has developed national strength,” says Rep. Sam Gejdenson (D-Conn.), who has been trying to persuade Gephardt to enter the race. “That could still happen, but if it doesn’t people are going to look elsewhere.”

Regardless of the misgivings about the current field, the odds against a new contender succeeding are daunting. A candidate entering the race today would be able to file for primaries in only eight states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, yielding a total of 725 delegates, and could enter 16 caucuses with 497 delegates for a combined total of 1,222 delegates.

But proportional representation rules would almost certainly prevent any candidate from winning all these delegates, and, in any event, he would be far short of the 2,144 needed for a majority.

Of course, numbers are not everything in politics. “Chemistry can be as important as arithmetic,” argues Democratic consultant Mark Siegel, who served on several of the commissions that created the party’s delegate selection rules.

Siegel points to the March 19 deadline for filing for the June 2 California primary, when 348 delegates will be at stake, and the April 9 deadline for the New Jersey primary, also on June 2, with 105 delegates. Triumphs in these two states on opposite coasts would provide a dramatic show of strength, Siegel contends, which could help gain support from the 771 “super delegates”--party and elected officials free to back whichever candidate they choose.

But before a late entrant could do well in these final primaries, he would face questions about what Brookings fellow Tom Mann, another veteran of Democratic rules commissions, calls the legitimacy of his candidacy.

“He would have to explain why he decided to run at this late stage, having declined to do it the old-fashioned way by building support over time,” Mann said. “He would have to answer the question: ‘What’s so special about you?’ ”

The Closing Window for Democrats

A late entrant in the Democratic presidential race could still compete in 23 states and three territories, but only 1,222 of 4,287 total convention delegates are at stake. A candidate needs 2,144 to win the nomination. For primaries (p), the date is the deadline for filing to enter. For caucuses (c), the date is when the event will be held. There is no preliminary filing for caucuses. The third column shows the number of delegates at stake.

MARCH 3 Amer. Samoa (c) 3 Idaho (c) 18 Minnesota (c) 78 Utah (c) 23 Washington (c) 71 MARCH 5 N. Dakota (c) 14 Alabama (p) 55 Puerto Rico (p) 51 MARCH 6 District of Columbia (p) 17 MARCH 7 Arizona (c) 41 Wyoming (c) 13 MARCH 8 Nevada (c) 17 MARCH 10 Oregon (p) 47 Delaware (c) 14 Missouri (c) 77 Hawaii (c) 20 MARCH 13 Nebraska (p) 25 MARCH 15 New Mexico (p) 25 MARCH 19 California (p) 348 Montana (p) 16 MARCH 31 Vermont (c) 14 Arkansas (p) 36 APRIL 2 Alaska (c) 13 APRIL 9 New Jersey (p) 105 APRIL 11 Virginia (c) 78 MAY 3 Guam (c) 3

Sources: Democratic National Committee, Democratic state parties