COLLEGE BASKETBALL : Will They Still Need Him, However, When There Are 64?

When trying to determine exactly who will be invited to the NCAA tournament, there is only one person to consult. Since Roy Kramer, the chairman of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, isn’t divulging any state secrets these days, we found the next best thing:

Pat Kennedy.

The Florida State coach is the acknowledged king of NCAA handicappers. Three years ago, he correctly predicted the 64-team field. “But most years I’ll have 62 or 63,” he said.

This is what Kennedy does this time of year. He frets. He scribbles list after list of tournament possibilities. It is a habit learned years ago at Iona College, where his teams, he said, “were always on the (NCAA) bubble.”

No more. In his six years at Florida State, the Seminoles have been to the tournament three times--four, if you count the guaranteed invitation to be delivered to 18th-ranked Florida State on Sunday. At Iona, he led the Gales to two NCAA appearances.

What began as a professional hobby of sorts has become an obsession. During a recent plane trip, Kennedy spent nearly eight hours compiling and arranging his list of tournament candidates. He studies schedules, nonconference opponents and, much like the committee itself, he looks for teams who finish the season strong.

When we last talked to Kennedy, he was parked at a baseball field in Tallahassee, where he was watching his son practice. With 90 minutes to kill before catching a flight for a recruiting trip, Kennedy, through the magic of a car phone, happily revealed his preliminary NCAA tournament field.

The list:

Atlantic Coast (5)--Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Kennedy thinks Wake Forest, which upset Duke earlier this season, is a sure thing. But the Demon Deacons were beaten in their final regular-season game by a so-so North Carolina State team. The loss dropped them to 17-10 and 7-9 in the conference. We think Wake Forest has to win an ACC tournament game to earn an NCAA invitation. A longshot: Virginia.

Big Eight (5)--Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Nebraska. Kennedy considers Iowa State an outside possibility. We say the Cyclones are at least one, maybe two Big Eight tournament upsets short of a bid.

Big Ten (5)--Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa. And you won’t hear a peep from the five who didn’t make it. Of course, Purdue has a chance if it beats Indiana this weekend at Purdue.

Big East (5)--Georgetown, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Syracuse and Connecticut, Villanova or Pittsburgh. Forget Pittsburgh. That leaves Connecticut or Villanova. We like Connecticut.

Pacific 10 (5)--Arizona, UCLA, USC and (two from among) Stanford, Washington State or Arizona State. Four for sure, probably five will come from this conference, Kennedy said. We think the committee will stick with five--congratulations, Washington State and Stanford--but if it were up to us, we would add Arizona State if the Sun Devils beat USC tonight or UCLA Saturday.

Southeastern (4)--Kentucky, Alabama, Louisiana State and Arkansas. Kennedy gives Florida or Tennessee a chance to squeeze in. We doubt if either will make it.

Great Midwest (3)--Cincinnati, DePaul and Memphis State or Alabama Birmingham. UAB has more victories, but we think Memphis State has the better team.

Metro (3)--Tulane, North Carolina Charlotte and Louisville or South Florida. Can you imagine a second consecutive NCAA tournament without Louisville? We can’t.

Atlantic 10 (3)--West Virginia, Massachusetts and Rhode Island or Temple. Probably Temple.

Southwest (2)--Texas and Houston. Kennedy says Texas Christian or Rice might receive an invitation. If so, we hope it’s Rice.

Western Athletic (2)--Texas El Paso and Brigham Young. If the committee is in a generous mood, Kennedy says Utah or New Mexico could earn a place. We like New Mexico’s chances before Utah’s.

Mid-Continent (2)--Eastern Illinois and Wisconsin Green Bay. If you can believe it, the committee might have to take two teams from this conference since Eastern Illinois upset favored Wisconsin Green Bay and went on to win the league tournament. We figure it’s a 50-50 chance for Wisconsin Green Bay to make it.

West Coast (1)--Pepperdine.

Big West (1)--New Mexico State or UC Santa Barbara.

Big Sky (1)--Montana or Nevada. For what it’s worth, Montana won the regular-season championship.

Ivy (1)--Princeton. Is this the year Pete Carril’s team wins a first-round game?

Mid-Eastern (1)--Howard. Howard, which won the regular-season title, overcame an 18-point deficit against Florida A&M; in the conference tournament. It belongs.

Midwestern (1)--Evansville or Xavier. Evansville deserves to be in the NCAA, no matter what happens in the league tournament. That said, we think the Aces will make it easy on the committee and win the bid outright.

Missouri Valley (1)--Southwest Missouri State.

Southland (1)--Northeast Louisiana.

Southern (1)--East Tennessee State.

Sun Belt (1)--Southwestern Louisiana. What to do ... what to do? Louisiana Tech won 21 games. Do you add them to the list? Probably not.

Ohio Valley (1)--Murray State. As long as Popeye Jones, one of the nation’s leaders in rebounding, kept eating his spinach, you knew Murray State would earn a bid.

Southwestern (1)--Mississippi Valley State.

Big South (1)--Campbell. Who?

Colonial (1)--Old Dominion.

East Coast (0)--Towson State. If the committee decides to give an at-large bid to this conference, Towson is the one that will get it.

Metro Atlantic (1)--LaSalle.

Mid-American (1)--Miami or Ball State or Western Michigan or Ohio. Your guess is as good as Kennedy’s.

North Atlantic (1)--Delaware.

Patriot (1)--Fordham.

Trans America (1)--Georgia Southern.

Northeast (1)--Robert Morris.

Independents (0)--Penn State won 21 games, but its power rating is terrible. Notre Dame needed to win one of its last three games for a bid but lost all three.

Big East coaches voted Sunday on their choice for conference coach of the year. In a heartwarming twist of support for one of their own, a majority of the coaches reportedly submitted two sets of ballots.

The first ballot apparently listed Georgetown’s John Thompson as the winner--but with an asterisk. If Boston College’s Jim O’Brien was fired, many of the coaches wanted their votes to go to the embattled Eagle coach. O’Brien nearly was canned last year, and there were rumors that his job was still in jeopardy this season despite a 15-12 record--but 7-11 in the conference.

Not to worry. Boston College, in a long overdue move, extended O’Brien’s contract earlier this week. A thought: You don’t suppose the Big East coaches, figuring that Boston College would look stupid if it fired the conference’s coach of the year, purposely leaked word of the vote? If so, we commend them. O’Brien deserved the extension.

Shame on the two Associated Press poll electors who used their No. 1 votes on Nevada Las Vegas. The seventh-ranked Runnin’ Rebels are good, but they’re not that good. To waste the votes on UNLV (26-2), a team that plays in the soft Big West and isn’t half as talented as last year’s crew, is a joke. And by the way, don’t mention the poll to Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, whose Blue Devils received 62 first-place votes in the most recent rankings. Krzyzewski isn’t so upset with Duke not getting all 64 votes, as he is with the two voters’ intentions. “Vote for what is happening,” Krzyzewski said, “not as a protest . . . not who you like.”

Krzyzewski also wasn’t crazy about the recently announced all-Atlantic Coast Conference team, which failed to include Duke point guard Bobby Hurley on the first team. Nor could Krzyzewski understand how Duke’s Christian Laettner and Maryland’s Walt Williams weren’t unanimous picks. “They had remarkable years,” he said. “It’s not even close.”

Clemson Coach Cliff Ellis put an interesting spin on the conference tournaments. For those teams on the NCAA bubble, Ellis said the league playoffs “are actually the opening rounds of the NCAA. This is an elimination process.” . . . For those who think Duke has little incentive to win the ACC tournament, think again, Ellis warned. “I think they’re going to come in possessed and I’ll tell you why,” he said. “You’re going to have a team that’s won a national championship, been to the Final Four and won the regular-season ACC, but I don’t think they’ve ever won an ACC tournament. They don’t want to let that go.” You are correct, sir. The Duke senior class has never won the conference tournament.

Kramer, chairman of the selection committee, said his remarks pertaining to teams with sub-.500 conference records were misinterpreted. In an earlier teleconference with reporters, Kramer said that a team’s league record was an important standard in determining the NCAA field of 64. Now, Kramer said conference records are a factor, but not a deciding factor. That’s good news for Iowa State, which is 5-9 in the Big Eight.

Top 10

As selected by staff writer Gene Wojciechowski

No. Team Record 1. Duke 25-2 2. Kansas 23-4 3. Arizona 24-4 4. Indiana 22-5 5. Arkansas 24-6 6. Ohio State 22-5 7. Kentucky 23-6 8. USC 21-5 9. UCLA 23-4 10. Nevada Las Vegas 26-2

Waiting list: Oklahoma State (24-6), Missouri (20-7), Florida State (19-8), Seton Hall (20-7), Michigan (19-8).