And That Lesser Election Here : Clinton and Bush look strong, but the electorate remains testy

Although not remotely as decisive or historic as the South Africa vote, the American presidential primaries in Michigan and Illinois did have their clarifying moments. Right-wing challenger Patrick J. Buchanan appears to be on the ropes, leaving President Bush the undisputed heavyweight. And the decline of former Sen. Paul E. Tsongas added prominence to former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown--a peculiar development that can only help front-runner Bill Clinton.

The Arkansas governor is now so far ahead there is already talk about the need for the party to rally around the front-runner. Clinton certainly came out of the Midwest stronger than ever. While President Frederik W. de Klerk was racking up about 70% of the white vote in South Africa Tuesday, Clinton was pocketing more than 70% of the black primary vote here. That is a substantial achievement--and raises the prospect of the Democrats gluing back together the historical black-and-white alliance that propelled the elections of Presidents Kennedy, Johnson and Carter.

The best news on the other side is that Bush-basher Buchanan’s goose appears cooked to a near-crisp. That’s a relief to many people--but especially to all sensible Republicans, such as California Gov. Pete Wilson, whose common sense and realism had also drawn Buchanan’s fire. The President’s huge triumphs in Illinois and Michigan might also reduce the primary campaign pressure and leave him more time to do what he was elected in 1988 to do--be President. Many issues, including the economy, the environment and aid to Russia, remain in great need of presidential ministration.

The electorate is in a very surly mood, no doubt about that. Few people are terribly happy about much of anything. Polls show that voters’ allegiance to the front-runners is in many cases razor-thin. The anti-incumbent mood is palpable. In Illinois four sitting congressmen were dumped. Considering the tremendous advantages of incumbency, that amounts to major congressional carnage.

In Illinois, for instance, veteran Democratic Sen. Alan J. Dixon was edged out by Carol Moseley Braun, who could become the first black woman senator. By conventional standards, Braun’s poorly financed, insurgent campaign had all the earmarks of defeat--but she won. Tapping women’s residual anger over the charges of sexual harassment aired in the confirmation hearings of now-Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, Braun drew strong support from suburban white women, as well as from black voters. That’s the kind of alliance that attracts attention nationally.

Tuesday’s primaries may have simplified the field somewhat, but this political year is far from over. How many more surprises are yet in store?