NEWS ANALYSIS : Road Ahead Is Far From Smooth : South Africa: Right-wing forces are still a threat to peace. Internecine township violence continues.

The decisive victory Wednesday for President Frederik W. de Klerk’s reform program will give fresh impetus to negotiations with Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress, but the road ahead for South Africa remains far from smooth.

Right-wing forces, though soundly defeated Wednesday, still are a threat to the peace process. Some conservative whites may ultimately decide to participate in negotiations, but the positions of more extremist factions will probably harden.

Pro-apartheid violence will increase in the coming months, political analysts say, especially when an interim government that gives blacks some political power is installed, perhaps later this year. That militant opposition could evolve into a full-blown insurgency when a new, black-controlled government takes over.

“Any new government will be seen by the right as a foreign government, with no legitimacy over the whites,” said Wim J. Booyse, a political consultant and expert on the right wing. “And one can never predict the actions and reactions of the fringe fanatics.”

At the same time, internecine township violence continues. More than 250 blacks were killed in a variety of attacks and clashes in the three-week run-up to the referendum.

De Klerk believes the black fighting will wane once the combatants see their leaders shaking hands on a new constitution. But black leaders aren’t so sure. They contend that the violence is orchestrated by black as well as white forces opposed to negotiations and that it will escalate as an agreement approaches.

Although the fighting has frightened off many foreign investors, the overwhelming support among whites for reform is likely to lure at least some of them back. And that would provide medicine for South Africa’s ailing economy and ease black unemployment, which stands at about 25%.

“The result should create confidence internationally and, hopefully, also internally,” De Klerk said Wednesday. Many foreign governments are considering new assistance to South Africa as a way of showing support for De Klerk’s reforms.

But the negotiations themselves, on which world optimism is based, still face an uncertain future.

The government and the ANC, the two main negotiators, have been edging closer to each other in recent months on many of the fine points of the transition. But they still disagree on the fundamental question of what shape that constitution should take.

Should it, as the ANC insists, revolve around the principle of majority rule? Or should it, as the government maintains, be a power-sharing arrangement in which whites and other minorities retain significant political power?

During the referendum campaign, the president promised whites that he would negotiate a constitution that would have built-in protections for whites and would ensure a free-market economy.

And although he said the vote was “a clear mandate for accommodation” during negotiations, De Klerk has tied his government to positions that are at odds with Mandela’s, leaving the president less room for compromise.

The ANC, for example, still favors state control of key industries, such as mining and banking, and there is widespread support within the movement for that policy. And although the ANC agrees that whites and other minorities must be protected, it opposes entrenching that protection in a new constitution.

What’s Ahead for South Africa

The Outcome: President Frederik W. de Klerk’s overwhelming victory in the referendum gives his reforms tremendous momentum:

Final results: 68.7% ‘Yes’ for the reforms to continue

The Turnout: 85% of 3.3 million eligible white voters

Next step: But it by no means solves the country’s political problems. Here’s a look at what’s likely to happen next:

New Constitution: De Klerk’s National Party and the African National Congress are among 19 groups that have been negotiating a new constitution since December. There could be agreement soon on the general principles, but the actual document is likely to take many months.

Blacks in Government: If the constitutional talks go well, there could be an interim government this year that would include blacks for the first time. But De Klerk has stressed that he would still be in control.

Potential Obstacles: Right-wing white groups and militant black organizations are not participating in the constitutional talks and almost certainly will object to any agreements.

What’s Changed Since De Klerk Took Office in ’89

* Black opposition groups have been legalized.

* More than 1,000 political prisoners, including Nelson Mandela, have been freed.

* Blacks, previously restricted to land ownership in 13% of the country, may buy land anywhere.

* Neighborhoods, hospitals, public transportation, parks and other public facilities are no longer segregated.

What Hasn’t Changed

* The black majority may not vote.

* De facto segregation remains in many institutions.

* Education largely remains segregated, and most blacks attend inferior schools.

Source: Times wire reports