Weather Might Decide Whether Conner’s Out : America’s Cup: Koch aligns his two boats based on wind projections as defenders begin fourth round.

Bill Koch has a new 1-2 punch ready to knock Dennis Conner out of the America’s Cup, but there’s a problem.

With all of Koch’s millions and all of Koch’s spies, he can’t control the weather. That complicated his decision on how to align his two boats--America 3, the third one, or Kanza, the new, fourth one--for the fourth round of the defender trials starting today.

One boat would inherit two bonus victories from America 3’s first-place finish in the three points rounds, the other zilch from Defiant’s third-place finish behind Conner’s Stars & Stripes. Conner gets one bonus victory.

The three boats will race each other four times. Only two will survive to the finals starting April 18--and Koch is determined that both will be his.

“I’d be very pleased,” he said Monday, with Conner sitting alongside.

But America 3 was built for light wind, Kanza for strong wind.

“Mother Nature’s gonna decide for us which is the faster boat,” Koch said.

Checking weather projections, he delayed his decision as long as possible until noon Friday before giving Kanza the top slot and leaving America 3 to survive on its own, from scratch.

Apparently, Koch has little faith in either Mother Nature or Kanza, the boat of the Kansas Indian “wind people,” coming through with breaths of fresh air.

However, weather information for the Point Loma area says that winds are strongest in March and April, with a mean afternoon breeze of 11.8 knots, then slacken to 11.2 in May. If that holds, Kanza might not need any help, and America 3 could be in trouble.

So Kanza will open against Stars & Stripes at noon today with two victories before it sails a race. After two days off, Stars & Stripes will meet America 3 Tuesday.

Conner isn’t burdened with such decisions. While major sponsor Cadillac pitches the new Stars & Stripes El Dorado these days, the skipper is still driving last year’s model of boat.

Stars & Stripes is the George Foreman of the America’s Cup. Long after all other carbon-fiber competitors in May’s IACC World Championships have become toxic waste, USA 11 finds itself matched against USA 23 and USA 28 in the ascending order of high technology.

Stars & Stripes is 8-12 against Koch’s stable and only 1-6 against America 3, which it finally beat in the last meeting, leading to confidence in Conner’s camp that it had caught up to America 3, as it caught up to Defiant earlier.

Conner’s only hope has been to keep improving his only boat. So since the third round ended March 15, Stars & Stripes has been to the fat farm.

Cut away transom, leaving a scoop-shaped stern: net saving 130 pounds.

Remove unneeded interior structure from bow: 40 or 50 pounds.

Shave excess skin from mast and lighten rigging: 100 pounds, down to legal minimum of 1,848.

The idea was to lighten the mast and ends of the boat to concentrate the weight low in the middle so it won’t pitch in choppy water--Stars & Stripes’ major perceived weakness. As late as Friday the once-beautiful midnight-blue boat was patched with Bondo and duct tape. They painted on the finishing touches Friday night.

“How much difference does it make when you have a boat that’s relatively weak going into a chop because of her original design concept?” Conner asked rhetorically. “It’s going to improve. It’s hard to know how much faster it’s gonna be.”

Or, more critical, how competitive.

“We’re shooting at a moving target,” Conner said. “We have to assume that Bill and (helmsman) Buddy (Melges) have made some improvements in their boats.”

Kanza has sailed only six days but “has been a very nice surprise for me,” Melges said.

Finally, Tom Whidden, Conner’s tactician and president of North Sails, said Stars & Stripes will have a suitable wardrobe for this round.

“We used the first three sets of trials to try to catch up by watching the good sails America 3 and some of the foreigners have had,” Whidden said. “I think we’ve caught up or at least closed the gap significantly.”

Conner has been a skipper in all four America’s Cup finals since 1980, winning three--including the catamaran in ‘88--and losing one. But he has never seemed so close to being shut out. The question was raised whether his absence would hurt the United States’ chances.

“That depends on whether Dennis’ boat is faster than one of our boats,” Koch said. “It’s best for the defense to have the two fastest boats out there butting heads. There’s nothing like competition to push your performance ahead.”

Conner agreed, saying, “If our function was to push them harder and make their crew be more battle-hardened, that would be in the best interest of the American defense. At this point, we’re still counting on being there April 15 and hope that they’re pushing us.

“What scares me is that the two fastest boats seem to be boats that have spread the load of the lifting surfaces with more than a single blade.”

Conner meant the Nippon and New Zealand boats that lead the challenger trials with tandem keels.

“I’m guessing that that’s where the America 3 boats are, and we have a single blade,” Conner said.

Koch wasn’t saying, but if the water is clear the world will know today.

Koch said, “Dennis’ boat, in light air and flat, smooth water, is very, very fast, and he can be very aggressive at the starting line. (But) Dennis has to sail a race with no mistakes.”

The same might be said for America 3.

Speaking into a TV camera Thursday night, Conner said “No bad luck, Bill, but you’re in for the race of your life.”