The Next Primary Prizes

Four states hold primaries Tuesday, but virtually all attention will be focused on two of them--New York and Wisconsin--where the Democratic presidential contests have emerged as crucial face-offs between front-runner Bill Clinton and his sole remaining challenger, Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown, Jr. New York

Democrats: Just two week ago, New York appeared to offer Clinton the chance to effectively wrap up the nomination and treat the rest of the primary season as a coronation. Now he is in a dogfight to regain momentum and defuse new doubts about his character. He has taken a battering from the New York tabloids, but still enjoys significant financial and organizational advantages. Brown has won some key union backing and is seeking to make inroads with minority voters. But he could be hurt by questions that linger about the fairness of his proposed flat tax. The Clinton campaign is hammering at the plan relentlessly, hoping to turn the vote into a referendum on it.

GOP: President Bush is unopposed.

Population: 17,990,455

White: 75%

Black: 16%

Other: 9%

Latino population, at 12.3%, is counted under black or white

Education:

High school graduates: 76%

4 or more years of college: 23%

Per Capita Income:

N.Y.: $22,086

U.S.: $18,691

Unemployment:

New York: 8.9%

National: 7.3%

Wisconsin

Democrats: Brown has been campaigning extensively and drawing enthusiastic crowds in a state with a history of backing anti-Establishment politicians. A week and a half ago, a poll showed Clinton with a 14-percentage point lead; Democratic insiders now rate the race as a tossup. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who ended his presidential race last month, stumped the state last week for Clinton. But one of his key Wisconsin backers now runs the Brown campaign. As in New York, Clinton is focusing his fire on Brown’s flat-tax plan.

GOP: Patrick J. Buchanan, declaring himself “tanned, rested and ready,” reappeared on the campaign trail in the state this week. But Bush is expected to easily defeat him.

Population: 4,891,769

White: 92%

Black: 5%

Other: 3%

Latino population, 2%

Education:

High school graduates: 81%

4 or more years of college: 19%

Per Capita Income:

Wis.: $17,560

U.S.: $18,691

Unemployment:

Wisconsin: 5.2%

National: 7.3%

The Other Races

Kansas: Reflecting the Democratic emphasis on New York and Wisconsin, neither Clinton nor Brown has personally campaigned in the state. In the Democratic race, 36 delegates are at stake; among the Republicans, 30 delegates.

Minnesota: Buchanan also plans to campaign here, but Bush is expected to win the primary, in which eight delegates will be awarded. The Democrats are conducting a “beauty contest” primary in which no delegates are awarded. Harkin won the party caucuses held last month.

A Plunge in Voter Turnout

After a record turnout in this year’s New Hampshire primary, some political analysts predicted voter anger would translate into increased action at the polls. But most states have seen declines in primary turnout, and the increase generally have been slight. Below is the percentage of registered voters who voted in each primary this year and four years ago. States that didn’t have primaries in 1988 are not shown.

Decreases from ’88

Votes cast in 1992 Votes cast in 1988 South Dakota 25.8% 39.5% Georgia 33.3% 40.6% Florida 35.8% 40.6% Louisiana 23.2% 38.6% Mississippi 21.3% 32.6% Tennessee 22.7% 33.9% Texas 28.7% 35.9% Illinois 39.3% 42.6% Connecticut 15.8% 21.5% Increases from ’88 New Hampshire 61.9% 48.5% Maryland 38.0% 36.3% Massachusetts 34.7% 32.9% Oklahoma 30.7% 29.0% Rhode Island 12.4% 11.8%

Source: Secretaries of state offices