BASEBALL ’92 : AMERICAN LEAGUE PREVIEW : Outlook Not Miraculous for Angels, Indians

For inspiration, the Angels and Cleveland Indians have only to look back at the Minnesota Twins.

After hitting bottom in 1990, the Twins won the American League pennant and the World Series last year, defeating the last-to-first National League champion Atlanta Braves.

The Angels, last in the AL West at 81-81, and the Indians, whose 57-105 record was the worst in baseball, hope to do the same thing. But they both lack too many essentials to duplicate Minnesota’s success.

Going from last to first might have been easier for the Twins than defending their championship will be. Stealing left-hander John Smiley (20-8) from the Pittsburgh Pirates for two minor leaguers will help compensate for the loss of Series MVP Jack Morris, who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays as a free agent, but Minnesota has done nothing else to improve itself significantly.

Cynics would say that the Blue Jays will play the regular season merely to see whom they will lose to in the playoffs. Losers in two of the last three championship series, the Blue Jays spent serious money this winter to end that streak. They signed Morris and Dave Winfield, boosting an already formidable rotation and strengthening an impressive offense.

A look at each division in order of projected finish:

WEST DIVISION

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

* 1991 finish: 87-75, second.

* Outlook: After two successive second-place finishes, the White Sox have outstanding starting pitching, led by Jack McDowell, who had a league-leading 15 complete games. Alex Fernandez struggled early but sharpened his control and struck out 145 in 191 2/3 innings. Former Angel Kirk McCaskill, sometimes victimized last season by a feeble offense, should do better than his 10-19 record of 1990. Frank Thomas, Steve Sax, Ozzie Guillen and Robin Ventura form the most offensively productive infield in the league.

New faces: A March trade with the Chicago Cubs brought George Bell, who hit .285 with 25 homers and 86 runs batted in last year. Also McCaskill, Sax, Manager Gene Lamont.

Must have: Fewer blown saves from the bullpen than last season’s 24, and continued defensive improvement from center fielder Lance Johnson.

Don’t have: Any significant weaknesses.

TEXAS RANGERS

* 1991 finish: 85-77, third.

Outlook: The Rangers can hit. Start with batting champion Julio Franco (.341, 78 RBIs), then add Rafael Palmeiro (.322, 26 home runs, 88 RBIs) and Ruben Sierra (.307, 25 homers, 116 RBIs). In Ivan Rodriguez, they have the most acclaimed young catcher in the game. But doubts about pitching are valid. Can Nolan Ryan stay injury-free long enough to make an impact? Jose Guzman (13-7) is dependable; Kevin Brown and Bobby Witt are inconsistent.

New faces: Shortstop Dickie Thon.

Must have: A big year from Witt, long touted as a star; decent defensive play at third by Dean Palmer and consistency from relievers Jeff Russell and Kenny Rogers.

Don’t have: A fifth starter.

MINNESOTA TWINS

* 1991 finish: 95-67, first.

Outlook: An early 15-game winning streak carried the Twins to the top, and no one challenged the rest of the way. Neither is likely to happen again. Without Morris’ 247 innings and 18 victories, they could be in trouble. The offense is exceptional, with Kirby Puckett (.319, 15 homers, 89 RBIs) and Kent Hrbek (.289, 20 homers, 89 RBIs) at the heart, although a shoulder injury could keep Hrbek sidelined for six weeks.

New faces: Smiley, left-handers Bill Krueger and Bob Kipper.

Must have: A workhorse to replace Morris; a good year from Kevin Tapani (16-9 last season) and fourth starter Krueger and a repeat of 1991 from closer Rick Aguilera (2.35 ERA, 42 saves).

Don’t have: The spark Dan Gladden provided leading off. Depth to compensate if pitcher Scott Erickson has elbow problems again.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

* 1991 finish: 82-80, sixth.

Outlook: Convinced that he had to revamp after last season, General Manager Herk Robinson traded two-time Cy Young Award winner Bret Saberhagen to the New York Mets. These Royals can hit, but the pitching is thin. Mark Gubicza was 9-12 coming off rotator cuff surgery, and Mike Boddicker was 12-12 with a 4.08 ERA. Kevin Appier (13-10) was the only starter above .500.

New faces: First baseman Wally Joyner, infielder Gregg Jefferies, outfielders Kevin McReynolds, Keith Miller and Chris Gwynn, catcher Bob Melvin.

Must have: A stronger bullpen. A good season from Joyner, lured from the Angels for $4.2 million for one year. He batted .301 last season with a contract on the line, and with a one-year agreement, he is playing for another big contract.

Don’t have: Reliable starting pitching or much talent on the bench.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

* 1991 finish: 84-78, fourth.

Outlook: Grim, with few prospects of reversing the mess that inflated the team’s ERA from 3.18 in 1990 to 4.57 last season. Bob Welch’s knee bothered him through most of spring training, Dave Stewart’s ERA was 5.18 last season and the bullpen is undistinguished beyond aging Dennis Eckersley.

New faces: Second baseman Randy Ready.

Must have: A full season from shortstop Walt Weiss, who has sat out 207 games because of injuries the last three years. A sound Carney Lansford. Another good season from Jose Canseco, who had 44 homers and 122 RBIs. A reversal of the slide that dropped Mark McGwire to .201.

Don’t have: Youth, pitching depth.

SEATTLE MARINERS

* 1991 finish: 83-79, fifth.

* Outlook: Will uncertainty over ownership undermine the Mariners’ concentration? If not, they could contend. Kevin Mitchell gives the offense an added dimension. As did Ken Griffey Jr. (.327, 22 homers, 100 RBIs) and Edgar Martinez (.307), Mitchell should be slamming pitches around the Kingdome.

New faces: Manager Bill Plummer, left-hander Dave Fleming, Mitchell.

Must have: A healthy Brian Holman, who underwent rotator-cuff surgery and isn’t expected back until midseason. An uninjured Mike Schooler, their closer.

Don’t have: Pitching depth.

ANGELS

* 1991 finish: 81-81, seventh.

Outlook: They start with superb pitchers: Mark Langston, Chuck Finley, Jim Abbott and closer Bryan Harvey, the league’s save leader last season. But they might need shutout pitching daily, with a lineup devoid of power without Joyner and Winfield.

New faces: Second baseman Bobby Rose, shortstop Gary DiSarcina, outfielders Von Hayes and Chad Curtis, designated hitter-outfielder Hubie Brooks, fifth starter Don Robinson, reliever Chuck Crim.

Must have: Strong comebacks from Hayes (broken arm) and Brooks (neck surgery). Fewer strikeouts and more RBIs from first baseman Lee Stevens. A second left-hander in the bullpen. Solid performances from the fourth and fifth starters. Daring and successful baserunning. Strong defense.

Don’t have: Enough speed. Pitching depth after the top three and Harvey.

EAST DIVISION

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

* 1991 finish: 91-71, first.

Outlook: With a superb bullpen, good starters and outfielders with power and speed, the Blue Jays should repeat. Dave Stieb’s return from back surgery could give them a boost in late April. Devon White blossomed last season, and Joe Carter ranked among the league leaders in doubles, RBIs, total bases, slugging percentage and extra-base hits. Second baseman Roberto Alomar hit .295 with 53 stolen bases, second only to Rickey Henderson. The team ERA of 3.50 was the league’s best, as were the bullpen’s 60 saves.

New faces: Morris, Winfield, rookie shortstop Eddie Zosky and rookie outfielder Derek Bell.

Must have: Another strong season from Tom Henke (32 saves) and Duane Ward (23). An injury-free Kelly Gruber at third. More of the same from Jimmy Key, who has won 12 or more games for seven consecutive seasons. More of the same from Todd Stottlemyre, who was 15-8 and still might improve. Mike Timlin’s elbow hold up.

Don’t have: A guarantee Winfield can repeat the 28-homer season he had with the Angels. If he doesn’t, they will suffer at DH.

BOSTON RED SOX

* 1991 finish: 84-78, tie for second.

Outlook: There’s plenty of offense and not much pitching beyond Roger Clemens and free-agent signee Frank Viola. Clemens won his third Cy Young Award while leading the league with a 2.62 ERA, 271 1/3 innings, four shutouts and 241 strikeouts. Wade Boggs finished second in the batting race at .332, and Mike Greenwell batted .300 with 83 RBIs.

New faces: Manager Butch Hobson, Viola.

Must have: A major contribution from left-hander Joe Hesketh, who was 12-4 in mixed duties. The Viola who was 10-5 for the Mets during the first half of last season, not the Viola who struggled with injuries and was 3-10 during the second. An infusion of life in the outfield from Phil Plantier, who batted .331 in 53 games.

Don’t have: Much in the bullpen besides Jeff Reardon, who had his third 40-save season. First baseman Carlos Quintana, who suffered a broken arm and leg in an off-season car accident.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

* 1991 finish: 67-95, sixth.

Outlook: A spectacular spring has given the Orioles hope of christening their new stadium with a winning season, and they might pull it off. The pitching has promise: youngsters Ben McDonald, Bob Milacki and Mike Mussina will join veteran Rick Sutcliffe in the rotation. And a rejuvenated Cal Ripken Jr. batted .323 with 34 homers and 114 RBIs in winning his second MVP award.

New faces: Mussina, who had 187 strikeouts in 122 triple-A innings last season. Storm Davis, a former Oriole who was 3-9 with Kansas City, and Sutcliffe. Another former Oriole, Rick Dempsey, 42, signed as a backup catcher.

Must have: Another big season from Gregg Olson. A recovered Glenn Davis, who sat out most of last season because of a neck injury.

Don’t have: Depth among starting pitchers. Or speed: The Orioles stole only 50 bases last season, fewer than Rickey Henderson, Roberto Alomar or Tim Raines.

DETROIT TIGERS

* 1991 finish: 84-78, tied for second.

Outlook: Sparky Anderson kept the Tigers in the race until late August, despite a pitching staff with an ERA of 4.51. His team has power galore--the Tigers led the major leagues with 207 homers--but struck out 1,185 times. Cecil Fielder squawked when he didn’t win the MVP, and he had good reason: his 44 homers gave him 95 in two seasons.

New faces: Left fielder Gladden. Rookie John Doherty, who will be the setup man for Mike Henneman. Outfielder Mark Carreon. Pitcher Les Lancaster was signed Friday.

Must have: Another 20-victory season from Bill Gullickson. Unlikely, but what were the odds he would be 20-9 last season? More strong outings from Frank Tanana, 38, whose curveball helped him win 13 games.

Don’t have: Bullpen depth. Young starters.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

* 1991 finish: 83-79, fourth.

Outlook: The pitching improved last season, but they considered trading Chris Bosio (14-10 with a 3.25 ERA), which would have been a step backward. Bill Wegman and Jaime Navarro each won 15 games, representing a good nucleus. The hitting is more than adequate, with a team average last season of .271, second in the league. Paul Molitor led the way at .325, with catcher B.J. Surhoff at .289, shortstop Bill Spiers at .283, right fielder Darryl Hamilton at .311 and left fielder Greg Vaughn driving in 98 runs.

New faces: Manager Phil Garner, pitcher Ricky Bones.

Must have: A strong comeback from Teddy Higuera, expected to return from rotator-cuff surgery in June. No signs of age from Robin Yount, 36, who is nearing 3,000 hits; or Molitor, who is 35. Better than a .213 season from first baseman Franklin Stubbs.

Don’t have: Workhorse setup man Chuck Crim, traded to the Angels. Third baseman Gary Sheffield, traded to San Diego in March. Stability in the infield after losing second baseman Willie Randolph to free agency.

NEW YORK YANKEES

* 1991 finish: 71-91, fifth.

Outlook: Pascual Perez’s drug suspension was a blow to the starting rotation, and uncertainty lingers over Steve Howe. Scott Sanderson (16-10) is the only returning starter who reached double figures in victories. With Sax gone, Pat Kelly gets to play second base, his best position. There is an adequate bullpen.

New faces: Shortstop Mike Gallego, outfielder Danny Tartabull, third baseman Charlie Hayes, Manager Buck Showalter.

Must have: A good season from Hayes. The six players they tried at third last season committed 37 errors. Another proven starter. A 100-RBI season from Tartabull, who might hit a lot of long fly balls in Yankee Stadium. A good season from Don Mattingly (nine homers, 68 RBIs), who has been hampered by back injuries.

Don’t have: George Steinbrenner. Or do they?

CLEVELAND INDIANS

* 1991 finish: 57-105, seventh.

Outlook: The Indians will be the youngest team in the league and the lowest paid. The pitching could be ugly, because after trading Greg Swindell and Tom Candiotti to reduce the payroll, they are left with Charles Nagy (10-15) as the ace. There’s an interesting reclamation project in Jack Armstrong, the former Cincinnati Red who was the 1990 NL All-Star starter but went 7-13 last season.

New faces: Pitchers Scott Scudder, Armstrong, Dennis Cook and Derek Lilliquist. Outfielder Kenny Lofton.

Must have: Patience. They probably will suffer with youngsters but could see dividends later.

Don’t have: Much time left in dreary Cleveland Stadium, scheduled to be replaced in 1994.