Scenes From a Mall: Few Buying the Democrats : Politics: From Long Island to Orange County, suburban voters are unhappy with the status quo but also with the messages of change.

It is a hectic shopping day here at the Roosevelt Field mall.

By the thousands, families from New York City suburbs pour in--young couples pushing baby strollers, elderly women leaning on their daughter’s arm, teen-agers strolling the shops eyeing the merchandise and each other.

In a few months, as the 1992 presidential campaign reaches its final stage, this mall--the oldest on Long Island--and similar shopping areas around the nation will form some of the hottest battlegrounds in the contest between President Bush and whoever emerges from the Democratic field.

Strong support from suburban areas formed the key to Ronald Reagan’s two victories and to Bush’s win in 1988. And this year, for the first time, a majority of votes may come from suburbs.

“The suburbs are the whole ball of wax as far as the Democrats are concerned,” said Republican pollster Glen Bolger. “They’ve got to do well enough in the suburbs” to retake the presidency.

Much may happen to sway these voters before November’s Election Day. But a series of interviews conducted at the Roosevelt Field shopping center before today’s New York presidential primary--as well as the results of polls conducted nationally--indicate that the Democrats’ goal of suburban inroads remains a distant glimmer.

Consider Larry Ashley, a 46-year-old school administrator. “Bush has lost control of the economy” and displayed poor leadership domestically, Ashley said. But nonetheless, he said he expects Bush will win his vote in November because “the Democratic candidates are a joke.”

As with Ashley, most potential voters at Roosevelt Field mall say the Democratic primary campaign has left them cold and dismayed. Analysts expect relatively few suburban voters will bother to take part in today’s vote. Many of those who do vote seem likely to support a man who has suspended his candidacy, former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas.

And once the general election campaign begins, the Democratic candidate confronts a formidable set of problems, particularly if he is the current front-runner, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.

The potential opening for the Democrats comes from a combination of factors. Worries about the economy, the perception that Bush lacks leadership on domestic issues, rising stresses in suburban life--from declining home values to expanding traffic jams--have combined to lower the President’s level of suburban support. Further drops could come if younger voters shift away from the Republicans because of the politics of abortion.

GOP pollster Bolger said that increasingly, suburbanites face “choices and trade-offs that didn’t exist years ago--taxes versus education and transportation, for example.” Because of those trade-offs, suburban residents report far less satisfaction with their situation than was common a decade ago, he said. Politically, he said, “that’s why you see such dramatic swing in suburban votes. They tend to blame whoever is in.”

Here, for example, in the heart of what was once the most solidly Republican area in the state, local voters swept an unprecedented number of Democrats into office in the last election. And with the recession having scared many suburban residents nationally, Bush has fallen victim to the same unhappiness.

Last month, for example, Bush’s support fell below 50% in the traditional Republican stronghold of Orange County, noted Mark Baldassare, professor of Urban and Regional Planning at UC Irvine, who polled Orange County residents for The Times.

But on the other side of the ledger, many suburbanites retain the concerns about national Democratic leaders that propelled them toward the Republicans in the first place.

“Basically, I like the way that Republicans handle spending,” said Dave Higgins, a 31-year-old firefighter, who was pushing his 18-month-old baby in a stroller while his wife shopped at Roosevelt Field. “I like the Republican Party.”

A few yards away, 31-year-old Bob Smith sat eating a piece of pizza with his wife, Clorisse. “I remember the Democrats who were President,” he said. “I didn’t really believe in their ways. Carter, I remember, and Mondale when he ran (and lost). He was terrible.”

With Clinton, both the polls and interviews show that he has a worse image in suburban areas than in any other slice of America.

“Clinton? I wouldn’t trust that guy further than I could throw him,” said Bill Hegman as he and his wife, both in their mid-30s, roamed the mall searching for a dress for her to wear to a friend’s wedding. “He does that schmoozing second only to a used car salesman,” Hegman said.

In a poll by The Times late last month, people across the country split evenly on whether Clinton had the honesty and integrity to serve as President. In the suburbs, however, only 35% answered that question yes, while 44% answered no.

Clinton strategists and outside analysts from both parties offer a series of reasons for his difficulties. According to some, Clinton could still reverse his negative image in time to wage a competitive campaign against Bush in the fall. Others, however, suggest a Clinton candidacy could already be irreversibly crippled.

Although voters’ doubts about Clinton focus on his character, neither Democratic nor Republican analysts believe that his relatively poor ratings in the suburbs mean that voters there are more sensitive to character issues than city or rural residents.

Instead, most analysts agree, suburbanites have been alienated by the positions Clinton has taken in the campaign so far, and that alienation makes them more receptive to negative information about him.

“It’s not so much what’s been said about him, but, instead, that his message lacks a clear appeal to suburban, middle-class, white-collar people,” Baldassare said.

Clinton and his strategists say they recognize that as a danger for their campaign. Early in the contest, Clinton presented himself to voters as a champion of reform, one who criticized government programs while arguing they could be reshaped to respond more efficiently. That sort of message could appeal to suburban voters, many of whom have grown profoundly disenchanted with government, said Fred Siegel, a historian at New York’s Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art.

But as the Democratic race has narrowed into a contest between Clinton, Tsongas, who runs well in suburban areas, and former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., Clinton has de-emphasized his reform message and has concentrated almost entirely on the party’s traditional themes, which are of little interest to suburbanites.

In a recent interview with The Times, Clinton said recapturing that reform theme would be critical in a race against Bush in the general election.

“Clinton has been boxed to some extent and has appeared to be opposed to the views of more independent voters,” his pollster, Stan Greenberg, conceded. But, he added, that could change if Clinton receives the nomination and competes against Bush.

“In order to do well in the general election, we have to shift focus,” Greenberg said. “That’s been our main problem for the longer term. For two months we’ve been continually counterposed to the ‘independent’ candidate in the Democratic Party. That has colored people’s perception of us.”