Western Stables Appear Barren : Horse racing: Despite the credentials of A.P. Indy, not everyone is sold on California’s prospects for the Kentucky Derby.

Racing fans have become accustomed to looking westward for the top Kentucky Derby contenders because of irrefutable evidence that the best three-year-olds usually are based in California. Ferdinand came from Santa Anita to win the 1986 Derby, followed by Alysheba in 1987, Winning Colors in 1988 and Sunday Silence in 1989. Last year, the 2-3-4 finishers at Churchill Downs all were California invaders.

So after A.P. Indy won Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, it was an almost unanimous opinion that he is the top American 3 year old and the main challenger to the French-based superstar, Arazi. He stands atop the weekly national poll of journalists rating Kentucky Derby contenders. In Las Vegas future-book betting, he is a solidly backed 5-2 second choice, with Arazi at 8-5.

There seems to be plenty of logic to support the lofty reputation of A.P. Indy and the 3 years olds in California whom he has been beating. Last fall, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that Arazi won so spectacularly, the California-based Bertrando was a clear second best, trouncing all of the other American colts. So when A.P. Indy rallied sharply to beat Bertrando by nearly two lengths Saturday, even a novice handicapper could draw the conclusion he is an outstanding colt.

But I’m not convinced. I suspect that A.P. Indy and the rest of the California 3 year olds are a bunch of overrated mediocrities, and I’d bet that nobody from the West finishes in the money at Churchill Downs May 2. This is a minority opinion, but as a devout speed handicapper I can come to no other conclusion.

There is no question Bertrando was the best domestic 2 year old last season, and that A.P. Indy showed immense promise when he won the Hollywood Futurity late in the season. However, neither seems to have progressed as a 3 year old.

Bertrando won his 3 year old debut by less than a length over an ex-claimer namer named Arp, in moderate time. A.P. Indy won his first start of the year by less than a length over the unheralded Treekster -- and had to work hard to do it. But those were merely prep races for the $500,000 Santa Anita Derby, which figured to show just how good the two colts were.

Bertrando set a quick pace and led to midstretch. A.P. Indy rallied in the final furlong to catch him. His effort might have looked good on television, but the Teletimer indicated that A.P. Indy wasn’t really accelerating sharply; Bertrando was slowing down. The final three-eighths of a mile were run in a dawdling 38 4-5 seconds.

A.P. Indy’s time for the 1 1/8 miles was 1:49 1-5. That time was put into a proper perspective later in the day when older males in the San Berardino Handicap covered the distance in 1:47 1-5. And in another race on the same card, a field of $32,000 claimers went 1 1-16 miles in 1:42 2-3, the equivalent of 1:49 for 1 1/8 miles.

My speed figures indicated A.P. Indy’s performance was roughly 10 lengths inferior to those of Winning Colors and Sunday Silence when they captured the Santa Anita Derby. A.P. Indy and Bertrando had both run very mediocre races in their dress rehearsal for the Kentucky Derby. They retained their credibility as Kentucky Derby contenders only because there was nobody else in the field capable of exploiting their weakness.

A.P. Indy’s fans might argue that trainer Neil Drysdale still hasn’t revved him for his maximum effort, and that the stretch-running colt will be more effective when he gets to run the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. Maybe so. But it is hard to imagine A.P. Indy will be able to improve the necessary 10 lengths off what appeared to be an all-out effort.

If the California contingent isn’t so formidable this year, where are the country’s good 3 year olds? Is there anybody on this continent capable of mustering a challenge to Arazi? The answer to these questions conceivably could come in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, where one of the entrants already has run fast enough to suggest he can be a star of his generation. Details forthcoming.