THE TIMES POLL : Southland Is More Pessimistic About Economy

Southern Californians have become much gloomier about the state of the economy than Americans overall, with the region’s more well-off residents increasingly joining the ranks of pessimists, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.

A little more than half of Southern Californians--52%--say the recession is serious--a substantially bleaker view than among Americans in general, according to recent national surveys that have detected a pickup in confidence about the future. The Southern California finding is a noticeable shift downward from August, when 30% of Southern Californians described the slump as a major one.

In addition, the percentage of Southern Californians who view the regional economy as “very shaky” has risen to 35% from 25% in August, a time when attitudes in the state were much closer to those of the nation than they are today.

The bleak mood is increasingly evident in affluent suburbs, where residents had been comparatively upbeat about the economy.

“The decline has been particularly pronounced among whites, middle-income and upper-income people,” said John Brennan, director of The Times Poll. “The feelings of gloom are a lot more broad-based than they were last year.”

Throughout the sprawling, six-county region, young residents tended to be more upbeat about the future than older ones. Among those age 18 to 24, 29% maintain that the Southern California economy is getting better; but of those ages 45 to 65, only 16% shared that appraisal.

At all age levels, concern about hard times was widespread: “I see more and more people out of jobs,” said one respondent, Viki Rayburn, 36, a homemaker and mother of three in the Orange County community of Garden Grove.

Although her family seems secure--her husband is employed as a teacher--she cited signs of distress around her, such as the emergence of homeless students in an elementary school and a friend whose household has gone on food stamps because of large medical expenses. “The economy, I really feel that its teetering,” she said.

The Times Poll of 2,619 Southern California adults was conducted April 9 to 15. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, and may be somewhat higher for subgroups.

There were a couple favorable glimmers in the survey. Asked their expectations about jobs and the overall economy three months from now, people were less pessimistic than in previous polls. For instance, 27% forecast that unemployment would grow worse--a smaller group of pessimists than in December, when 39% anticipated higher unemployment.

One of those who expect things to improve is Smalley Vogel, 77, a retired teacher in Long Beach.

“We eat out in restaurants quite a bit, and I’m beginning to think that maybe business is starting to pick up a little,” he said. Vogel also said he has noticed a modest change in the local housing market.

Nonetheless, the Southern California results contrasted negatively with the overall tone of a national Los Angeles Times Poll taken late last month. In the national survey, the number of Americans who expected the economy to be stronger in the next three months was noticeably larger than the number who expected it to slide--28% to 17%.

In the new Southern California poll, 23% remained pessimistic, compared with 21% who were optimists.

“It’s clear that if there’s a recovery under way nationally, or the beginnings of a recovery, Southern California is lagging behind,” Brennan said.

The poll results seem to jibe with a common view among analysts: That the California economy sank into a recession somewhat later than the United States overall, it has suffered more than the average and will emerge later than the rest of the nation.

Residents of Southern California are also slightly more concerned about the health of their household finances than are Americans overall. More than one in three Southern Californians--37%--described their personal finances as either fairly or very shaky, with 62% saying their household budget situations were secure.

But in the national survey, 31% of Americans said their household finances were shaky, and 67% described their personal situations as secure.

The new poll suggests that a sort of leveling process is under way within Southern California’s diverse population, as the attitudes of more affluent people sink toward the levels of their less-advantaged counterparts.

Among those with annual incomes above $40,000, the share who believe that Southern California is in a serious slump has jumped by 23 percentage points since August; for those who earn less than $20,000, the comparable rise was 15 percentage points. The affluent remain somewhat more upbeat than their poorer counterparts, with 49% of the richer group describing the recession as serious, compared with 57% of the less affluent.

The leveling process was apparent in other ways. Among respondents who live within the Los Angeles city limits, 55% described the slump as severe--up 10 percentage points from August. The increase in pessimism was a more dramatic 29 percentage points for San Diego County residents, 31 percentage points for Orange County residents, and 18 percentage points in Los Angeles County, excluding the city. In each of the three counties, the percentage that views the downturn as severe is almost as large as in the city of Los Angeles.

The percentage of white respondents who feel the economy is shaky has risen by 16 percentage points since August--more than any other racial group. Overall, one-third of whites feel that Southern California’s economy is shaky, about the same as Asian-Americans and Latinos. Blacks are still the most pessimistic, with half describing conditions as shaky.

The poll also highlighted some unusual disparities within Southern California’s varied topography. People who live in deserts and canyons turned out to be some of the most negative on the economy, and valley dwellers more optimistic than average. Forty six percent of valley dwellers described the recession as serious, compared to 60% of their canyon counterparts, and an even gloomier 69% of desert dwellers. However, the reasons for the disparity were not clear.

Despite the hodgepodge pattern of differences, economists generally believe that the California economy will follow the U.S. economy in an upturn, perhaps later this year, because the two are inextricably linked.

“I think the recovery will start to kick in locally by midyear,” said Arthur J. Shaw, chief economist at the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce, adding that “I think nationwide, it already is under way.”

A Bleak View of the Recession

More than half of Southern Californians now say we’re in a serious recession, compared to just 35% of Americans nationwide.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NATION No Recession 6% 13% Mild Recession 10% 18% Moderate Recession 29% 31% Serious Recession 52% 35% Don’t Know 3% 3%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 2,619 adult Southern Californians by telephone April 9-15. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures on sex, race, age, education, household size and county size. The margin of sampling error for findings based on the total sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.