TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Majority Says Defense Cut Is Worth the Pain : Federal budget: Half want to spend ‘peace dividend’ on domestic programs, half prefer reducing the deficit.

Even though an overwhelming majority of Orange County residents think that cuts in defense spending will worsen the recession in Southern California, nearly a third say that the $50 billion in cutbacks proposed by the Bush Administration are not severe enough, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

An additional 45% say that the planned cuts, painful though they may be, are “about right” while only 15% think the proposed reductions too severe.

County residents are evenly split between those who want to use the savings from defense cuts for domestic programs, and those who think the “peace dividend” should be used to reduce the federal budget deficit.

But a solid majority of residents, Republicans and Democrats by like margins, say they favor a federally funded program to retrain defense workers who lose their jobs because of military spending cutbacks.

In a county where lower domestic spending has been a popular political campaign theme, a surprising 57% of Republicans favor such a retraining program, while 38% are opposed. Among Democrats, 66% favored government-paid retraining, while 27% are opposed. Overall, 60% favor retraining and 34% say they are opposed.

“Keeping the aerospace workers on unemployment will just increase the deficit in the long run,” said Mark Isaacs, 27, of Costa Mesa, one of the Orange County residents who was interviewed for the poll.

Isaacs has voted Republican in the last three presidential races and describes himself as a fiscal conservative. But he believes that a federal program to retrain laid-off defense workers for civilian pursuits will turn them back into taxpayers sooner, and will thus be cheaper in the long run.

But Don Staman, a 38-year-old plumber from Irvine, disagreed.

“All it will end up being is another big federal program that will just increase the taxes on everyone who is working,” Staman said. He doesn’t believe the “peace dividend” will materialize, and if it does, he says, the money should be used to reduce the deficit, be returned to taxpayers or be invested in the space program.

The telephone survey of 600 adult residents of Orange County was conducted for The Times April 2 through 5 by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The poll has a 4% margin of error.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) said the broad support for deep defense cuts is not surprising, since “Americans have never supported defense simply as make-work, or because they liked war.”

“The threat to our national security is less, so we should be spending less. But we should make sure we remain technologically superior to any foe,” he said.

Rohrabacher said he does not oppose government retraining for laid-off aerospace workers, but argues that the nation should focus on helping the existing aerospace industry convert to peaceful purposes so that aerospace workers can keep their jobs.

The congressman said he had beaten back an attempt two months ago to kill a $57-million, two-year appropriation for a reusable rocket under development at McDonnell Douglas, a program he said “will put the U.S. in the position to capture the commercial (rocket) launcher market.”

“We should make sure that (aerospace workers’) skills are put to good use now, not just simply retraining them and making store clerks out of them,” Rohrabacher said.

Similarly, Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) prefers financial incentives so skilled defense workers are encouraged to start their own high-tech companies rather than rely on federally funded programs that often teach only basic skills.

“These people don’t need training. They are already some of the most sophisticated workers in the labor force. Many can become entrepreneurs,” Cox said. “The best retraining program is eliminating the capital gains tax passed in 1986.”

The aerospace bust is expected to afflict the Southern California economy for the next five to 10 years. Though estimates vary, Los Angeles County is expected to lose between 184,000 and 420,000 jobs, in addition to the 71,000 aerospace jobs already lost statewide in the last three years.

Defense employment in Orange County dropped by 15% in the most recent three years for which complete statistics exist, and thousands more jobs are expected to be cut this year. Meanwhile, cuts in National Guard and other military personnel are also expected to take a disproportionate toll on California.

The Administration plan is to reduce military spending by 3.5% a year, or $50.4 billion, over the next five years. Some lawmakers have proposed cutting an additional $50 billion to $150 billion over the same period. With the Administration’s cuts factored in, the 1993 budget would devote $281 billion to defense.

Not surprisingly, 40% of Orange County residents think these defense cuts will worsen the Southern California recession “a lot.” Another 34% say the cuts will hurt “somewhat,” 13% say they will hurt “a little,” and only 9% say cuts will worsen the recession “not at all.”

However, even among those who think the cuts will hurt the economy a lot, only a quarter think military spending is being cut too much, while a quarter say the cuts don’t go far enough. Another 40% say the proposed cuts are “about right.”

Republicans are more likely to back the Administration, with 56% saying the proposed cuts are “about right” and a quarter saying they are “not enough.” Among Democrats, only 34% say the cuts are “about right,” while 41% say they are too small. But in both parties, fewer than one in five say the cuts are too deep.

“It’s going to hurt the defense industry . . . but in the long run it’s going to be beneficial,” said Isaacs, who approves of Bush’s proposed level of cuts. “The most important thing is to get to a zero deficit, a balanced budget, because they are hocking the future of the country.”

Some who were reluctant to endorse deeper cuts--even after the demise of the Soviet Union as a superpower and then as a nation--cited concerns over Third World instability and nuclear proliferation.

“There’s several tactical nukes missing in what used to be the Soviet Union. . . .” Stamen said. “As long as that stuff is still aimed at us, I have a problem with defense cuts. . . . I don’t think it’s a secure planet yet.”

On the other side is T. J. Vahl, 76, of Fullerton, who once worked as a supplier to an aerospace firm and thinks many defense items are overpriced.

Military spending should be cut by at least 10% to 15%, Vahl said. “Our defense force is more than able to take care of any situation that would arise,” he said. “I don’t have any feeling of insecurity whatsoever.”

Mary Pat DeGroodt, a nurse from Huntington Beach, also thinks the military budget should be slashed by about 10%--three times the President’s proposal--with proceeds used to reduce the deficit.

But she feels retraining laid-off defense workers isn’t the government’s responsibility. A registered Democrat who supports Ross Perot for President, the 57-year-old was already a grandmother when she went back to earn her high school diploma and then a nursing degree--and thinks that unemployed aerospace workers can do the same. The sacrifice, she said, will pay off in the long run.

“I think the economy has to be hurt more before we’re going to level off,” she said. “I’m sure America is going to stand strong one day again, but we have to go through this.”

And though the defense cuts will cause suffering, DeGroodt says, a regimen of less spending will be therapeutic.

“It wouldn’t hurt us all to cut back and maybe make pea soup for supper once in a while,” she said.

Presented a choice, Orange County residents are evenly divided over whether to use the peace dividend for domestic spending or deficit reduction, while 15% want the savings applied to both.

Congressman Cox said those polled are mistakenly assuming there will be funds readily available to pay for new domestic programs. Broad cuts are needed in government programs, not just defense, he said, before money is freed up.

“What is required is that we approach the federal budget as if we were approaching the budget of a failing company,” Cox said. “We need to focus on those things government does well.”

In 1991, Congress appropriated $200 million for job retraining and economic development programs to help ease the transition to a post-Cold War economy. However, that money is only now beginning to be distributed to communities, according to Ken Matzkin of the Defense Department’s Office of Economic Adjustment.

California communities have not yet applied for any of the $150 million in job training funds that are available, Matzkin said. That money is in addition to the $457 million the Department of Labor already receives for job retraining programs.

“We haven’t yet found that programs that are in place are inadequate,” Matzkin said. “Therefore, to beef them up now seems premature.”

However, in 1991, only 1% of about 14,000 laid-off aerospace workers in Los Angeles County were sent to job retraining programs. A recent report by Los Angeles County’s Aerospace Task Force estimates that 38% of the workers laid off will need up to 18 months of retraining in order to qualify for jobs comparable to their old ones.

The budget that emerges from Congress this spring is expected to contain roughly $1 billion in new funds to help such workers and cushion the transition to a peacetime economy. The Bush Administration has not yet announced a position on the proposed legislation.

The Recession: How O.C. Is Coping

The Orange County Edition of the Times today presents special coverage of the impact of the lingering recession:

* IN BUSINESS: According to a Times Orange County Poll, the downturn has taken a toll on wage earners in the county, with an erosion of confidence in most areas of job satisfaction. D1

* IN VIEW: How five families from different economic levels are weathering the current economic climate. E1

HOW THIS POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County adult residents was conducted April 2 through 5. The sample was statistically weighted to reflect the actual population distribution of Orange County residents. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus four percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain that the results are within four percentage points of what they would be if every adult resident were interviewed. All respondents were guaranteed anonymity; however, some of those polled agreed to be re-interviewed for this story and others appearing in the Business section.

What to Do With Defense Savings? Some people say that the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union asa world power should permit major military spending cutbacks. Do you think the moneysaved should be used for domestic programs, or to reduce the federal budget deficit?

Total Republicans Democrats Domestic programs 41% 35% 49% Deficit reduction 39 47 31 Both 15 11 18 Other 1 3 1 Don’t know 4 4 1

The Bush Administration’s plan is to reduce military spending by 3.5% or $50 billion during the next five years. Some in Congress favor larger cuts. Do you think the defense cuts proposed by the Bush Administration are too much, about right or not enough?

Total Republicans Democrats Too much 15% 13% 18% About right 45 56 34 Not enough 32 25 41 Don’t know 8 6 7

Do you think military spending cuts will worsen the recession in Southern Californiaa lot, somewhat, a little or not at all?

Total Republicans Democrats A lot 40% 39% 41% Somewhat 34 37 35 A little 13 14 11 Not at all 9 7 10 Don’t know 4 3 3

Do you favor or oppose the federal government paying to retrain defense workers wholose their jobs because of military spending cuts?

Total Republicans Democrats Favor 60% 57% 66% Oppose 34 38 27 Don’t know 6 5 7

Source: Times Orange County Poll