Real Races Mark ’92 Elections : Politics: Redistricting, the check-writing scandal and the anti-incumbency mood are among forces that have heated up elections in San Diego County.

In a marked departure for a city often described as a quiet political cul-de-sac, San Diego is approaching a primary election that more closely resembles a chaotic mid-town Manhattan intersection at rush hour.

The convergence of myriad factors--among them, redistricting, some longtime legislators’ retirements, comeback attempts from other familiar political names, the congressional check-writing scandal, the public’s deepening anti-incumbency mood and the growing clout of Christian fundamentalists--have transformed Campaign ’92 into the most compelling, competitive election here in the past decade.

Adding to the election’s magnitude is San Diego Mayor Maureen O’Connor’s impending retirement and the resulting debate among her would-be successors over the city’s agenda for the early 21st Century, coupled with the prospect of wholesale changes on both the City Council and the County Board of Supervisors that could dramatically shuffle the region’s political lineup.

“The potential for change offered by this election is much greater than we’ve seen in a long time,” said lawyer Michael McDade, a longtime political activist and top adviser to San Diego mayoral candidate Susan Golding. “This really could be one of those watershed years that we look back at in the future as having set the course for the city.”

Perhaps the signature feature of the June 2 primary is that, because of the dynamics peculiar to this political season, it includes numerous contests than are races in more than name only--something that could rarely be said in past elections.

In the 1980s, most San Diego congressional and state legislative races were little more than electoral formalities that saw heavily favored incumbents routinely returned to office, in large measure due to their districts’ lopsided partisan imbalances and their own fund-raising and name-recognition advantages.

Of nearly 140 primaries and general elections in those races during the past decade, only four incumbents lost: Democratic Reps. Lionel Van Deerlin and Jim Bates, in 1980 and 1990, respectively, and Republican Assembly members Sunny Mojonnier and Jeff Marston in 1990.

In contrast, this year’s contests include a half dozen races for open seats, and a handful of other campaigns in which newly drawn district boundaries, political controversies and unusually strong challengers will present incumbents with formidable reelection obstacles.

“There’s much less predictability than there typically is in San Diego elections,” said campaign consultant David Lewis. “Incumbents have more reason than usual to be looking over their shoulder.”

Explanations for the uncertainty surrounding this year’s elections begin with the new district lines, adjusted to account for population shifts over the past decade. Consequently, most local congressmen and state legislators face different constituencies--in some cases, almost entirely so--than the ones that returned them to office in 1990, increasing their vulnerability.

“The chance of knocking off an incumbent is never better than the first time he runs in a new district,” political consultant Rick Taylor said. “That’s why redistricting brings out so many challengers. They know this is a chance that comes around only once every 10 years.”

Indeed, at a time when numerous national surveys have revealed the public’s growing disenchantment with politics, record numbers of candidates have entered some local races.

For example, in San Diego County’s five congressional races--one more than 1990, thanks to a new seat picked up due to growth--voters will sift through more than 50 candidates, more than half of whom hope to capture the rare political prizes created by two open U.S. House seats.

“People might feel that the county and the Congress are going to hell, but a lot of them want to come along for the ride,” said former Rep. Van Deerlin, only half-jokingly.

What had been expected to be San Diego’s premier congressional contest lost much of its luster last week when six-term Rep. Bill Lowery (R-San Diego), severely damaged by his involvement in the House check-writing scandal, abruptly withdrew from his 51st District Republican primary showdown with freshman Rep. Randall (Duke) Cunningham (R-Chula Vista).

Lowery’s withdrawal transformed Cunningham into an overwhelming favorite in the heavily Republican northern San Diego district, where three other GOP contenders, five Democrats and three minor-party candidates also are on the ballot.

San Diego’s most cluttered and potentially most competitive congressional race is in the 49th District, which, with its relatively narrow 45%-39% Republican registration edge, has the most even partisan balance of the five local districts--and, most significantly, no incumbent on the ballot.

Seventeen candidates have entered their respective primaries in the 49th District, sprinkling both the Republican and Democratic races with prominent names. The Democratic field is led by two onetime aides to former California governor and current presidential candidate Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr.: San Diego Unified Port Commissioner Lynn Schenk and lawyer Byron Georgiou, who lost to Bates in a 1990 primary.

The GOP primary in the northwestern San Diego district is more wide open, with former San Diego City Councilman Bill Mitchell, who is making his second congressional bid, facing a handful of major opponents, including financial planner Skip Cox, oral surgeon Ron Hecker, commercial flower-grower Ray Saatjian and manufacturer Alan Uke.

In San Diego’s other open congressional race in the heavily Democratic 50th District, victory in the five-candidate Democratic primary will be tantamount to election, though four Republicans and two minor-party candidates are also running. Three fixtures of local Democratic politics--former Rep. Bates, upset by Cunningham two years ago, state Sen. Wadie P. Deddeh (D-Bonita) and San Diego City Councilman Bob Filner--are the front-runners in a field rounded out by community activists Greg Akili and Lincoln Pickard.

Rep. Ron Packard (R-Carlsbad) appears secure in his bid for a sixth two-year term in the new 48th District, and, until a month ago, his colleague, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Coronado), seemed equally certain to win a seventh term against only token opposition in the 52nd District.

Though Hunter is still a strong favorite, the political equation in his race was altered last month when he, too, was drawn into the House checking scandal by his admission that he had written 407 overdrafts totaling nearly $129,000 over a three-year period.

Because of the relative weakness of Hunter’s opponents, any ballots that they receive will be widely seen as a protest vote indicative of how strongly the so-called Rubbergate scandal resonates with voters who view it as symbolic of the arrogance of a Congress badly out of touch with average Americans suffering through a lingering recession.

“This was going to be a tough enough year to be running as an incumbent,” said campaign strategist McDade. “Something like that just makes the baggage a little heavier.”

Equally compelling dynamics can be found among the 10 state legislative races being contested here.

Four open Assembly seats and one open state Senate post are at stake, with several of them being crucial tests of the “Christian right’s” attempts to expand upon its 1990 successes--notably, anti-abortion activist Connie Youngkin’s 75th District race and arch-conservative Steve Baldwin’s 77th District bid.

In the 76th and 78th Assembly districts, respectively, freshmen Democrats Mike Gotch (D-San Diego) and Dede Alpert (D-Del Mar) face strong challenges to retain seats in areas with GOP registration edges. Christian fundamentalists, who made an impressive debut two years ago by winning two-thirds of the nearly 90 low-profile races that they contested in San Diego--and who this year hope to move several steps higher on the political ladder--also have targeted both campaigns.

Noticeably absent from the list of Assembly candidates is San Diego Democrat Pete Chacon (D-San Diego), who is retiring after an 11-term career--at least partly to avoid what would have been a tough primary battle against fellow Democratic Assemblyman Steve Peace (D-Chula Vista) in the reconfigured 79th District.

Meanwhile, in the 39th state Senate District, the June primary will set the stage for a November showdown between two San Diego political veterans: state Sen. Lucy Killea (I-San Diego), who last year abandoned her Democratic Party affiliation to become an independent, and former Republican state Sen. Jim Ellis, who is seeking a comeback after a three-year respite from state government.

And, in the 37th state Senate contest, Assemblywoman Carol Bentley (R-Santee) and Assemblyman David Kelley (R-Idyllwild) loom as the major obstacles in the path of each other’s hopes for political advancement.

Retirements and officeholders’ bids for new offices also could dramatically change the political complexion at San Diego City Hall and the San Diego County Board of Supervisors.

Beyond O’Connor’s departure, the turnover at City Hall also could include three of the eight council seats, assuming their current occupants--Ron Roberts, Judy McCarty and Filner--are successful in their campaigns for higher office. If victorious in his congressional race, Filner would vacate the 8th District seat to which he was reelected last year, while McCarty’s success in her county supervisorial campaign would open up her 7th District post. Similarly, if Roberts captures the mayoral contest, there would be a special election to fill his 2nd District slot.

At the county, at least two of the board’s five seats will change hands due to Supervisor George Bailey’s retirement and Golding’s decision to run for mayor rather than seek reelection to a third term.

Historically, changes in the mayoral suite on the 11th floor of San Diego City Hall have produced campaigns that serve as forums for debate over the city’s future direction and the candidates’ differing styles of leadership.

For example, in the 1983 mayoral campaign prompted by Pete Wilson’s ascension to the U.S. Senate after an 11-year tenure--the longest in the city’s history--Roger Hedgecock swept into office behind the rallying cry of “Prevent the Los Angelization of San Diego,” a phrase that since has become a staple of the city’s political dialogue.

To date, this year’s six-candidate mayoral campaign has not produced a debate that has risen to that level, with the candidates’ differing visions being blurred by sniping over particular issues and questions about their personal backgrounds. That is unlikely to change, some campaign consultants argue, until the field is narrowed to two in the June primary.

“So far, it’s been a very defensively run campaign, with the candidates talking about the same issues and staking out relatively the same turf,” said Golding adviser McDade. “They’re each coming across as reasonably competent people giving reasonably competent answers. But no one seems eager to strike out in any new directions. When it’s down to one-on-one, that might focus the debate.”

Although it will be overshadowed by the mayoral contest, the most competitive city attorney’s race since the 1970s also will appear on the June ballot in the city of San Diego as incumbent John Witt seeks reelection against former City Councilman Bruce Henderson, who hopes to rebound from last year’s reelection loss.

Because Witt and Henderson are the only candidates in the race, the June primary will be decisive, with the victor securing the 50%-plus margin needed for outright election.

“When the city attorney’s race is interesting, you know it’s an unusual year in San Diego,” Lewis concluded.