THE TIMES POLL : Races for Cranston’s Seat Tighten Up in Both Parties

Rep. Mel Levine is coming on fast, Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy has dropped back and both now are in a tight race with Rep. Barbara Boxer for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll.

The fight for the Republican nomination to succeed Cranston also is a close contest, between Rep. Tom Campbell of Palo Alto and Los Angeles television commentator Bruce Herschensohn, with Palm Springs Mayor Sonny Bono trailing, the statewide poll showed.

In California’s unique four-ring circus of Senate primaries, the Democratic race for the other U.S. Senate seat is looking like a possible runaway for Dianne Feinstein, while the GOP battle involving incumbent John Seymour remains a puzzle to many voters. These contests are for the nominations to fill the seat occupied by Pete Wilson before he became governor.

Whoever wins the old Wilson seat will serve only two years, then presumably run again for a full six-year term in 1994. The prize in the other contest to replace Cranston is a full six-year term.

So far, according to interviews with registered voters, there are signs that women candidates have an advantage in the Democratic races--former San Francisco Mayor Feinstein in the contest for the two-year seat, and Rep. Boxer of Marin County in the tight battle to replace Cranston.

The poll found little evidence that Boxer has been significantly hurt by the congressional check scandal, although she wrote 143 overdrafts at the now-defunct House bank. Nor is there any sign that Feinstein has been substantially harmed by the state Fair Political Practices Commission lawsuit alleging that her unsuccessful 1990 gubernatorial campaign misreported $8.4 million in expenses, loans and contributions.

The most significant boost to any candidate probably is being provided by the heavy volley of TV commercials promoting Rep. Levine of Los Angeles in the full-term race, the poll indicated. Levine has risen substantially in the standings since a similar Times survey last December, a period in which veteran Lt. Gov. McCarthy--who has not had any television advertising--has lost noticeable support.

In that Democratic race, the Times Poll found the candidates bunched like this: Boxer 26%, McCarthy 24% and Levine 21%, with 29% undecided. By contrast, the standings last December were McCarthy 39%, Boxer 21% and Levine 5%.

In the Republican contest for that seat, the latest standings are Campbell 28%, Herschensohn 23%, Bono 13% and 35% undecided. This is an improvement for Campbell since last December, when the results were Herschensohn 21%, Campbell 17% and Bono 16%.

In the Democratic contest for the short term, Feinstein is running comfortably ahead of state Controller Gray Davis by 57% to 29%, with 14% undecided. These standings are virtually unchanged from five months ago.

And in the Republican contest, Sen. John Seymour--the former state legislator whom Wilson appointed as his replacement--is ahead of Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton by 31% to 14%, with 5% for “someone else” and a whopping 50% still undecided roughly five weeks before the election. This also represents little change from December.

The statewide survey, supervised by Times Poll Director John Brennan, was conducted April 23-26. In all, 1,395 registered voters were interviewed, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction. Among these voters were 619 registered Democrats and 526 Republicans. The margins of error for the party breakdowns were five points each.

In the Senate Democratic contest for the full term, Levine had campaigned very little for months--becoming known as the “stealth” candidate--while his consultants plotted a strategy of relying heavily on a barrage of TV commercials during the stretch drive for the nomination. The poll found evidence of initial success for this multimillion-dollar maneuver.

Roughly one-fourth of the Democrats interviewed reported having seen a Levine commercial. (None of the other Democrats, in either race, has done television advertising this year.) Among those who have viewed a Levine commercial, his favorable rating is 20 points higher than it is among all Democrats. And he is leading Boxer among this commercial-viewing group by 10 points.

Feinstein and Boxer potentially could benefit from their gender in a year when women candidates all over the country are faring well. When Democratic voters were asked how important they think it is to elect a woman to the Senate, 35% answered “very” and another 27% said “fairly”--a total of 62% who considered it to be important. Women especially felt this way and they significantly outnumber men in the Democratic electorate.

But in the actual matchups, the Times Poll found Boxer to be running only sightly better among women than with men. There was a clear gender gap in McCarthy’s case, however, with men noticeably supporting him more than women.

Feinstein was enjoying widespread support among women and men alike and there was no noticeable gender bias in this race.

But the poll also found additional evidence that Democratic voters, in theory, would favor a woman candidate for the Senate.

Those interviewed were given a choice between two hypothetical Senate candidates. Half of those surveyed were told that one contender was a woman and the other was a man. The other half were told that both were men. All other descriptions of these hypothetical candidates remained the same. When the candidate was identified as a woman, she ran 18 points better than when the contender was described as a man.

But Boxer still is threatened by potential harm from the check scandal, although it does not appear to have significantly affected her so far.

Nearly six in 10 Democrats said that, theoretically, they would be less likely to support a Senate candidate who wrote overdrafts at the House bank. On the other hand, one in five Democrats volunteered that they knew Boxer had written overdrafts and she ran as well among these people in the standings as she did among everybody else.

More than half of the Democrats were aware of Feinstein’s troubles with the state Fair Political Practices Commission based on her 1990 campaign contribution reports. And one in eight of those interviewed said they were less likely to vote for her because of these problems. Still, this does not yet seem to be affecting her big lead over Davis.

The Feinstein-Davis race is the most settled of the four contests, with seven in 10 Democrats saying they would not change their minds before Election Day. Feinstein is particularly strong among liberals and upscale voters.

By contrast, the GOP race between Seymour and Dannemeyer is an enigma to a lot of voters. Half of the Republicans interviewed said they may change their minds before the election. Seymour’s supporters are only slightly more committed to their candidate than are Dannemeyer’s. And neither candidate is widely known.

The other Republican race also remains very fluid, with only a third of Campbell’s and Bono’s supporters committed to their candidates. Herschensohn’s backers are somewhat more solid, with roughly half saying they would not change their votes.

There are clear differences between the moderate Campbell and conservative Herschensohn on many issues, including abortion. Campbell advocates abortion rights and Herschensohn is anti-abortion. But they are tied among women voters.

Among Republican voters, as well as Democrats, abortion ranks low on the list of issues that they say Senate candidates should be talking about.

THE TIMES POLL: California’s Two U.S. Senate Races

The campaign to replace Sen. Alan Cranston has emerged as a tight, three-way race on the Democratic side and two-way race on the Republican, the Times Poll shows. The race for the seat held by Sen. John Seymour shows Seymour leading among Republicans and Dianne Feinstein with a substantial Democratic lead. The poll suggests that women candidates have an advantage in the Democratic primaries.

U.S. Senate Primary: 6-Year Seat

Among Registered Democrats 4/26/92 12/10/91 Boxer 26% 21% Levine 21% 5% McCarthy 24% 39% Someone else -- 2% Don’t know 29% 33%

Among Registered Republicans 4/26/92 12/10/91 Campbell 28% 17% Herschensohn 23% 21% Bono 13% 16% Someone else 1% 2% Don’t know 35% 44%

U.S. Senate Primary: 2-Year Seat

Among Registered Democrats Feinstein 57% 58% Davis 29% 29% Someone else -- 2% Don’t know 14% 11%

Among Registered Republicans Seymour 31% 27% Dannemeyer 14% 13% Someone else 5% 4% Don’t know 50% 56%

What is your impression of Boxer?

All Registered Voters Favorable 20% 13% Unfavorable 14% 7% Don’t know 66% 80% What is your impression of Bono? Favorable 26% 28% Unfavorable 40% 34% Don’t know 34% 38% What is your impression of Campbell? Favorable 20% 12% Unfavorable 8% 4% Don’t know 72% 84% What is your impression of Dannemeyer? Favorable 11% 10% Unfavorable 13% 10% Don’t know 76% 80% What is your impression of Davis? Favorable 40% 40% Unfavorable 16% 12% Don’t know 44% 48% What is your impression of Feinstein? Favorable 55% 55% Unfavorable 34% 32% Don’t know 11% 13% What is your impression of Herschensohn? Favorable 20% 16% Unfavorable 11% 10% Don’t know 69% 74% What is your impression of Levine? Favorable 29% 8% Unfavorable 14% 5% Don’t know 57% 87% What is your impression of McCarthy? Favorable 40% 39% Unfavorable 28% 29% Don’t know 32% 32% What is your impression of Seymour? Favorable 23% 11% Unfavorable 16% 12% Don’t know 61% 77%

Do you approve of the way Wilson is handling his job as governor?

All Registered Voters 4/26/92 12/10/91 Approve 44% 38% Disapprove 48% 55%

How important is it to vote for a woman for U.S. Senate?

All Registered Voters 4/26/92 6/2/90* Very important 28% 16% Very unimportant 20% 29%

Are you more or less likely to vote for a Senate candidate who is against abortion?

Registered Registered Registered Voters Democrats Republicans More likely 16% 12% 21% No effect 29% 29% 30% Less likely 54% 58% 48% Deciding factor 19% 26% 12%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a Senate candidate who wrote bad checks at the House bank?

Registered Registered Registered Voters Democrats Republicans More likely 2% 2% 2% No effect 28% 37% 17% Less likely 67% 58% 79% Deciding factor 26% 22% 29%

* In 1990, the question asked was: “How important is it to vote for a woman for governor?”

SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll, taken April 23-26. Poll conducted among 1,395 registered voters statewide, including 619 registered Democrats and 526 registered Republicans. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for registered voters and 5 percentage points for Democrats and Republicans.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,395 California registered voters by telephone, April 23-26, of whom 619 are registered Democrats and 526 are registered Republicans. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for the samples of registered Democrats and Republicans the error margin is plus or minus 5 points. For certain other subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.