Catholic Flock Decline Called Statistics Fluke

U.S. Roman Catholicism, the nation’s largest religious body that generally has shown steady growth, last year registered the biggest loss ever recorded. But the decline was termed a statistical fluke.

It was “caused by different methods of reporting introduced over the last year by some dioceses,” said Father Kenneth Doyle, media relations director for the U.S. Catholic Conference in Washington.

Computing church flocks is a variable process among the denominations, and Doyle said indications were that instead of a Catholic loss, there may have been a gain.

The new statistics showed the church’s membership at 58,267,424, down by 300,591 from the year before. But hinting at a warp, more than that total was lost by one archdiocese, Los Angeles, which changed its counting system.

Whatever the reasons, the decline amounted to about half a percent, considering the church’s large constituency, reducing Catholics to 22.8% of the country’s population, compared to 23.2% in 1990.

The figures were issued in the 1992 edition of The Official Catholic Directory published by P.J. Kennedy & Sons of Wilmette, Ill., giving updated statistics for 1991.

They showed that the number of nuns for the first time had fallen below 100,000, dropping to 99,337, or 1,974 fewer than the year before, and the number of priests edged downward by 86 to 52,287.

Ranks of the sisterhood have been cut nearly in half over the last two decades, their numbers decreasing each year from a peak of 181,421 in 1965.

However, the ostensible loss in Catholic membership, disregarding counting wrinkles, contrasted with a pattern of typically rising numbers over the last half-century.

Only in three years since the compilation of national Catholic statistics began in 1945 have losses occurred, and they were always less than last year’s statistical drop.

The first dip came in 1969, with a tiny decline of 1,149. Then in 1978, membership was down by 284,141, and in 1984, down by 106,891. Except for those drops, and last year’s count, the records show steady growth.

Doyle said the changed reckoning system used last year in some dioceses relied “on statistical formulas rather than on parish estimates.”

Protestant denominations also use varying methods, often making church statistics imprecise and sometimes hardly comparable.

Some count infant baptisms, as do Catholics, others only after confirmations of adults. Some update active rolls; others do not, using estimates.

Most major Protestant denominations, except for Southern Baptists, have reported membership losses for about 20 years but recent slight increases in some of them, indicating a possible upturn.

The anomalous Catholic drop ran counter to that indication and also to the church’s mainly expanding trend.

Despite the seeming deviation, receptions into the church through infant and adult baptisms rose last year by 32,731 to 1,180,707.

Noting this increase, Doyle said that rather than a membership loss, “the reality would seem to be that the actual number of Catholics in the U.S. has increased over the past year, as it has for many years.”

Although there was a slight reduction in the priesthood, the number of ordinations rose to 864, up 40% from the 620 the year before, but deaths and departures shrank the count.

Seminary enrollments fell slightly, from 6,482 to 6,460. The total was less than a third of the 23,000 seminarians of 20 years ago. The steep downward trend has put a worrisome cloud over the future supply of priests.

Although the number of diocesan elementary schools decreased from 7,246 to 7,176, enrollments increased from 1,929,184 to 1,937,760, less than half what it was 20 years ago.

The proportion of lay teachers continued to climb, now 145,090, up 1,160 from the year before, while the number of teaching sisters continued to shrink, down 645 to 17,453.

Sisters used to constitute more than 90% of the parochial school’s staff, but now they are about 10%.

The Numbers The following data on the U.S. Catholic population is from the 1992 edition of The Official Catholic Directory. The declines in some categories were blamed on different methods of reporting introduced over the last year by some dioceses.

Category 1992 Total Change From ’91 Church Membership 58,267,424 -300,591 Number of Nuns 99,337 -1,974 Baptisms 1,180,707 +32,731 Ordinations 864 +244 Seminary Enrollments 6,460 -22 Elementary Schools 7,176 -70 Elementary Enrollment 1,937,760 +8,576 Teaching Nuns 17,453 -645 Lay Teachers 145,090 +1,160