Lingering Gray Skies Cast Pall on Merchants : Weather: Many worry that another foggy summer will hurt tourism again. But meteorologists predict warmer days.

Gloomy skies that have persisted over Ventura County for the past week are making tourist-dependent merchants skittish that they are in for a repeat of last year’s long, dismally gray summer.

Heavy drizzle that fell in parts of the west county Monday, coupled with a National Weather Service forecaster’s prediction that rain may fall here by this weekend, seemed to only add to those fears.

“If it’s foggy or rainy or even just heavy gray skies, it affects us,” said Katherine Thompson, night manager at Tugs Restaurant in Channel Islands Harbor. “Last year it seemed like we didn’t have a summer and it definitely affected our business.”

But meteorologists say record high ocean temperatures recorded off the coast of Southern California this spring indicate that county residents will enjoy a warm tropical summer after a pattern of low morning clouds and hazy sunshine breaks by mid-June.

Pacific Ocean temperatures in the San Diego area hovered around 72 degrees in April, said meteorologist Rea Strange of Pacific Weather Analysis in Montecito. That’s about 10 degrees warmer than usual, a significant rise for such a large water mass, he said.

“For April, that’s absolutely incredible,” Strange said. “It gives every indication of it being more like tropical weather this summer,” not only in San Diego, but throughout Southern California, Strange said.

National Weather Service meteorologist Ted MacKechnie said the continuing effects of El Nino, a warm current in the Pacific Ocean credited with bringing heavy rains this winter, will result in an unusually warm summer throughout Ventura County.

“Everything looks weird already. Instead of the regular circular patterns we see, everything is just meandering around the globe,” he said.

The gloomy weather that has settled over the county for a week is due to a thick layer of low clouds and fog drifting over the ocean and onto land, MacKechnie said. Heavy drizzle seen in Ventura and Santa Paula on Tuesday is not a storm, but moisture from the heavy marine layer, he said.

A low-pressure system off the California coast near San Francisco may move inland by Friday, bringing a slight chance of rain for Ventura County by Saturday, MacKechnie said.

“It’s just hanging out there right now. If it moves in, most of the rain will reach Northern and Central California,” he said.

Despite the week’s gloom-and-doom weather, not all business owners are worried.

“This is pretty normal weather for us here in Ventura for May and June,” said Stan Fujii, proprietor of the Ventura Surf Shop, which sells surfboards and beach apparel. Fujii remembers that the summer of 1983--also an El Nino year--was very nice.

“We have high hopes for this summer,” he said.