NEWS ANALYSIS : Killings Again Threaten to Affect Israeli Election

A 15-year-old Israeli schoolgirl was attacked and stabbed to death by a Palestinian on Sunday in Bat Yam, a town near Tel Aviv, and rioters stalked Arab workers in retaliation. In Gaza, a shootout between Israeli troops and Palestinian gunmen left one soldier and three Arabs dead. Artillery duels and ambushes unsettled Israel’s northern border region last week.

The horror and uncertainty provoked by the violence distracted Israelis from the start of intense campaigning for next month’s national elections. One observer called the intrusion of pain the debut of the Party of Fear in the race.

The Arab-Israeli conflict has provided the background dirge to elections here since the founding of the state 44 years ago. Whatever other issues may be at hand, whatever the campaign slogans, Israeli elections have often turned on the question of who can best protect Israelis from hostile neighbors.

How will this latest spasm of violence--and the almost inevitable recurrence between now and the June 23 vote--affect the heated contest for power between Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, leader of the Likud Party, and his chief rival, Yitzhak Rabin of the Labor Party?

It is indicative of the muddled climate of electoral season that observers are cautious about drawing conclusions. Both Likud and Labor delayed the start of their radio and television advertising campaigns in deference to the grief over the Bat Yam stabbing.

“Violence can throw everything into question. Fear is never far below the surface among Israelis and can make itself a campaign issue very quickly,” government spokesman Yossi Olmert said.

Stirrings of insecurity are traditionally thought to favor the Likud Party, which, in the words of one campaign worker, prefers to work in a “climate of tension” as it moves toward election day. On election eve, 1988, Palestinians firebombed a bus in Jericho, killing a woman passenger and her two children. The incident provided Likud with added support in a close election, analysts said at that time.

Rumors periodically sweep Israel of a “June surprise” in which Israel would carry out some sort of military spectacular to boost Likud’s popularity. In 1981, then-Prime Minister Menachem Begin ordered the bombing of a nuclear plant in Iraq on the eve of a tough election, which he went on to win.

This time out, Labor is trying to protect itself by presenting a tougher image by emphasizing the no-holds-barred policies of Rabin, a former defense minister who carried out sharp crackdowns on Palestinian protesters and rioters when he held that post. Far-right parties are trying to paint Likud as “soft” on Arabs.

The strategies are being put to an early test.

In Bat Yam, a Palestinian knocked down the schoolgirl at a bus stop and stabbed her repeatedly. He was captured by police and bystanders. As the news spread, enraged residents shouted “Death to the Arabs!” and smashed store windows while roving mobs besieged Arab construction workers in the town.

“We don’t want Arabs in Israel. We will kill everybody!” a man shouted to a radio interviewer.

Both Likud and Labor Party representatives called for sealing off the Gaza Strip.

In Gaza, a pre-dawn shootout began when soldiers approached a house believed to harbor a group of fugitive Islamic nationalists. During a chase, a Palestinian gunman shot and killed an Israeli soldier. The counterfire killed three Palestinians. One was caught fleeing.

One of the Palestinian victims was a suspect in the 1990 stabbings of three Israelis in Tel Aviv and in the execution-style killings of up to 24 Palestinians suspected of informing for the Israelis.

Last week, low-intensity conflict in Lebanon heated up. Israeli jets bombed hide-outs of militiamen belonging to Hezbollah, an anti-Israeli Shiite Muslim organization. The raids followed attacks by Hezbollah on units of the South Lebanese Army, Israel’s allied militia in southern Lebanon.

Politicians from smaller parties expect that political fallout from the Bat Yam incident will make points for their own vision of security and resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Rehamam Zeevi, who heads the far-right Moledet Party, called for a ban on Palestinians working inside Israel. Thousands of Palestinian laborers flood Israel daily to work at mainly menial jobs.