POLITICAL FORECAST : Who Will Be the Final Four in California’s U.S. Senate Races?

Who will be the ultimate contenders in the two California races for the U.S. Senate, and why? The Times asked five political newsletter writers.

Robert Balkinm, Editor in chief, The Hotline,

Sen. John Seymour will win with 65% of the vote, because (Rep. William E.) Dannemeyer made himself irrelevant so fast. The real race was Seymour vs. obscurity, and Seymour is winning at this hour. (Rep.) Tom Campbell will be the other Republican winner, with 52%, because he’s pro-choice and upfront about funding for AIDS. Bruce Herschensohn ran around the track six years ago and came up short, and this time he’s run merely a tactical campaign.

As for the Democrats, the real story was (state Controller) Gray Davis deciding not to engage Dianne Feinstein, who’ll get 64% of the vote. (Rep.) Barbara Boxer will win the other senatorial contest. It will be decided by late-breaking voters, and her message, her gender, the way she’s played her issues, all will make her the choice of the undecided. Boxer will get 39%, (Lieut Gov.) Leo McCarthy 35%, (Rep.) Mel Levine, 26%.

Charles E. Cook Jr., Editor and publisher, Cook Political Report

Feinstein by 14%. Underdogs had to make their moves before the Rodney King verdict; the window closed before Davis got a chance to move. The other contest is extremely close, but Boxer will get 34%, Levine, 33%, McCarthy, 33%.

Seymour will get 55% of the GOP vote. Candidates try to get to the 40-yard line, and Dannemeyer is still in his own end zone. The more exposure he gets, the farther away he gets. Campbell’s closer to the 50-yard line of where the state Republican Party is today. Campbell is not as smart as Herschensohn, not as strong a campaigner, but he is spending money in outlying markets. He’ll get 45%; Herschensohn 43% and (Palm Springs Mayor) Sono Bono 12%.

Joe Scott, Editor, the California Eye

Feinstein by 17% because of the gender gap, a rationale for running and a narrow gubernatorial defeat two years ago. McCarthy will win the other seat by two points. He’s not a member of the House, there’s a comfort factor with him and people are used to seeing his name on the ballot. In the Republican races, Seymour by 14%, not principally because is so strong, but because there is no viable competition. He’s a pro-choice moderate, he’s an incumbent and he has a big money edge and no television ad competition. Campbell will win by three points: He’s pro-choice, and choice is going to make a difference in this race.

Dick Rosengarten, Publisher, California Political Week

For the short-term seats, it’s going to Feinstein and Seymour. The thing that’s so tough about all these races is that we don’t know how high the turnout is going to be. It’s going to be very, very low. Both of these races are going to be tighter than ordinarily expected. Seymour will get less than 50%.

If Bono were not in the race, Campbell would be a winner. Bono is the “deciding factor.” In a low-turnout primary, you sort of have to give the edge to Herschensohn.

For the Democrats, Boxer has the edge. Democratic Party primary voters tend to be women, and she’s making a very strong appeal to women.

Dirk D. Olin, Editor and publisher, California Republic

Seymour (70%). Whenever a bland, mainstream Republican runs, he stands a very good chance of winning. Bill Allen cut into Dannemeyer’s right-wing support. In the other race, Campbell by a hair. Herschensohn’s problem is that he blows really hard. I don’t know how a lot of people responded to his off-the-cuff response on the L.A. riots--that the problem sits with rotten people. I think that struck a lot of people as simplistic, and perhaps, callously so. On the Democratic side, it has always been Feinstein’s to lose. She will greatly benefit in what is a potential breakthrough candidate year for women. She has not stepped on her own tongue yet. Boxer will get the other nomination. She has the strongest appeal to the hard left, and, as we know, the primaries will reflect the activist wing.