ELECTIONS ’92 : Ford Says Bush Victory Hinges on the Economy

The presidential election would be thrown into the House if it were held today, but President Bush will win in November if the economy continues to improve, former President Gerald R. Ford said Monday.

In a speech at the National Press Club, where he presented his fifth annual journalism awards, Ford said he has found “maximum political unrest” in his travels around the country.

“There is a tremendous disillusionment with politicians generally,” he said. “All incumbents, including the White House, in my opinion, are in trouble.”

Nevertheless, Ford said: “I happen to think that if the economy continues to improve and the perception is that it is getting better, George Bush will win.”

But “if the election were held today, we would have a three-man race, and I don’t think any of the three would get the 270 electoral votes” needed to win.

That would mean that the new House would elect the President in January on the basis of one vote per state, and the new Senate would elect the vice president, with each senator having one vote.

The House would pick among the top three candidates, likely to be Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton and independent Ross Perot.

“You could have a serious deadlock,” said Ford. “This, at this moment, cannot be ruled out. I hope this does not happen because, in my judgment, it could produce a very, very dangerous situation for us domestically as well as internationally.”

Ford presented the award for presidential reporting to Burton R. Solomon of the National Journal for a column on the White House. The award for national security reporting went to Douglas Jehl of the Los Angeles Times. The $5,000 awards are sponsored by a foundation formed by the former President.