NEWS ANALYSIS : Suddenly, Where’s the Party? : Politics: Perot could divert votes from Bush in his county stronghold, causing the Democrats to carry the state.

Don LeJeune is one of the reasons Orange County is famous for its solidly Republican politics. For 30 years, he has never missed an election, and he has never voted against a Republican.

“I was probably born a conservative Republican,” said LeJeune, the 51-year-old owner of a plastics business in Tustin.

But now, LeJeune is one of the reasons that some people are asking a once-unthinkable question: Can Republicans hold on to the county in November?

That’s because LeJeune and hundreds of other county Republicans are working these days on the volunteer staff at Ross Perot headquarters.

“There’s somethin’ cookin’ here, believe me,” LeJeune said Saturday at the headquarters. “I don’t really have any quarrels with (President Bush), but I think the system is what we’re looking to change--as well as the leadership.”

The visits to the county this week by both Perot and Bush underscored the area’s national political value.

It would be difficult for Bush to win the crucial election in California without carrying Orange County by a wide margin. And while the President was in the county Friday to stoke Republican fires, he also heard some blunt talk from supporters about how difficult it will be to win the support he needs from the county.

“Right now, I think Perot puts such a dent in Orange County that Bush can’t win California,” said Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach). “November is a long way off, but he’s got a long way to go.”

Perot’s appearance in the county was largely due to its reputation as sacred Republican territory. By holding a rally behind enemy lines with about 5,000 cheering people, Perot hoped to send a message that this year will not be business as usual for the Grand Old Party.

Perot volunteers announced at the rally that more than 150,000 signatures were collected in the county to place their candidate on the ballot. That’s more than he needed statewide to qualify for the ballot, and it is nearly as many votes as county Republicans gave Bush in this month’s primary.

“When Orange County came up specifically, everybody said, ‘That’s Reagan country,’ ” Perot told the crowd Thursday in Irvine. “You have changed politics in this country, I hope permanently.”

The county’s Democratic Party usually keeps a low profile because it is so overshadowed by California’s strongest Republican apparatus. But this week, county Democrats also stepped forward at a press conference to predict that the GOP will not deliver the county for Bush.

They did not say Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will beat Bush in the county. But it could generate a Democratic victory if the Republican margin of victory in the county is so small that it does not offset the Democratic strongholds in Los Angeles and Northern California.

“While there was a time when George Bush could take the support of Orange County for granted, that time is long gone, thanks to 24 consecutive months of recession,” said Mark Petracca, a college professor and Democratic activist. “Orange County is Bush country no longer.”

Howard Adler, chairman of the county Democratic Party, said he is not sure which presidential candidate will win the county in November, but “we just know George Bush won’t.”

Adler said he and about a half-dozen other party officials at the press conference are supporting Democrat Bill Clinton. He said Clinton should win the race because the defining issue of the campaign will become, “Who really can make it happen? And we already know Bush can’t.”

The county’s top Republican leadership still expresses confidence in its ability to elect Bush in November.

Republican chairman Thomas A. Fuentes downplayed the Perot rally and earlier visits by Clinton as nothing more than media events staged by groups too small to threaten the GOP. He also criticized Perot for not revealing his positions on major political issues.

“I don’t think the Perot shallow answers and hollow, aw-shucks response to probing inquiry is going to satisfy Orange Countians when it comes to selecting their President of the United States,” he said. “We saw a masterful George Bush in command of the issues.”

As evidence of the GOP’s continuing strength in the county, Fuentes noted that all of the incumbent Republicans who faced challengers in this month’s primaries were renominated. And he said the GOP voter registration advantage over Democrats is nearly at an all-time high of 231,000.

On the other hand, those who see trouble for Republicans note that while the party’s local incumbents were nominated this month, it is also significant that nearly all of them were challenged by GOP colleagues.

The intraparty battles revealed rifts between moderates and conservatives, as well as disputes among some conservative factions.

A Times Orange County Poll last month also found Republican weakness in that Perot was leading Bush, 42% to 36%. Clinton trailed at 16%.

Most Republican leaders and lawmakers said they expect Bush will win the county, but several said it might be difficult to gain the margin he needs from his Republican base to win the state.

“It’s going to be very close in Orange County,” said Costa Mesa GOP consultant Eileen Padberg. “If it’s close in Orange County, then he’s in trouble in California.”

Ferguson and other Republican leaders said the key for Bush in the county will be to excite the conservatives he angered by breaking his promise to not raise taxes. That job lately has fallen to Vice President Dan Quayle, who has spoken throughout the country recently on a theme of family values.

Buck Johns, a Newport Beach developer and prominent conservative Republican leader, agreed that the right wing of the party is not excited about Bush. But he predicted that the President will still carry Orange County and California, largely because conservatives are eager to support other candidates on the ballot, notably Republican U.S. Senate nominee Bruce Herschensohn.

Under a logic inverted from traditional politics, Johns said, Bush could ride Herschensohn’s coattails to victory in California. “They are going to be going to the polls for Herschensohn,” he said.

For LeJeune, however, the political party he has supported for so many years is no longer the best vehicle for solving national problems. Now, it has become one of the problems itself, he said.

LeJeune said he believes that partisan politics has so paralyzed government that it is impossible for Bush to make the drastic changes needed to correct the nation’s domestic problems. And so he will continue to work for Perot.

“You look at Washington, and they all vote on party lines, not on what is best for the people,” LeJeune said. “That has got to stop.”

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