NEWS ANALYSIS : No Political Winners in Budget Battle : Elections: Voters see stalemate as another example of incumbents failing their constituents, experts say.

In California’s boiling sea of political turmoil, the Great Budget Crisis of 1992 is just one more bucket of trouble for state government officeholders--all of ‘em, a variety of political experts agreed Monday.

The budget backlash may not be strong enough, or personalized enough, to swamp incumbents running for reelection this November, they said. But voter frustration over the budget debacle could be one more issue tipping the balance in close races.

Neither Republican Gov. Pete Wilson nor Democratic legislative leaders are likely to emerge from the prolonged budget stalemate--whenever it is broken--with the ability to claim victory, analysts said.

“There are no heroes in politics these days,” said Mervin Field, founder of the Field Poll and one of California’s most venerable political observers.

Further, Field said it would be difficult for Wilson to persuade voters he won a budget victory for them solely by avoiding the imposition of any new taxes. People tend to look more at the size of their take-home pay, he said, than the actual tax bill.

“There is so much economic pain now,” Field said. “The idea of just not adding to your pain--no doctor gets credit for that when somebody already is in pain.”

Democratic Assemblyman Phillip Isenberg of Sacramento, who is running for reelection this fall, said: “One reason we can’t move anything along is because there are no winners. There are only institutional losers.”

However, several experts agreed that because of their visibility as chief executives, governors tend to get credit when things go well and get blamed when events turn sour. Thus, the governor could serve as a lightning rod for discontent.

Indeed, a new Field Poll to be published today is expected to indicate that Wilson’s disapproval rating among voters jumped by 10% since May. But the voting public sampled gave the Legislature an even bigger vote of no-confidence, reflecting frustration that cuts across party lines.

Political analysts said public blame is directed at the amorphous “them,” for failing to do their job on time again. In Sacramento, it happens that more of “them” are Democrats than Republicans and the majority power has potentially more to lose in the fall election.

Wilson is in midterm and does not face the voters in person this fall. However, he is the chief sponsor of a welfare reform initiative on the November ballot that includes a provision to give the governor greater authority to cut spending during a budget stalemate. The experts doubted, though, that the budget battle would have much impact on the outcome of the initiative, Proposition 165.

While the 1992 budget battle is graver than previous ones--this time, the state is paying its bills with IOUs--lawmakers have noted remarkably little outcry from the public.

Isenberg predicted that the adverse fallout of the final budget would strike in this order: “Agitated economic special interest groups first; hypocritical, sanctimonious, hysterical local elected officials next, and a totally confused and angry public.”

Chairman Delaine Eastin (D-Union City) of the Assembly Education Committee said grim financial conditions have forced exceedingly difficult choices on state lawmakers. “It’s like choosing among your children. Which do you keep?”

The no-win aspect of the budget stalemate caused Republican Sen. Frank Hill of Whittier to break with Wilson on the budget impasse and join Isenberg in attempting to fashion a compromise plan that would not cut school aid as heavily as Wilson had proposed.

“I didn’t see anybody winning,” Hill said Monday. “I saw all of us collectively, the Legislature, losing, just dragging the institution down.

“He (Wilson) believes he’s winning the battle out there. I just don’t see it.”

The conventional Republican view is more bullish about Wilson’s prospect of emerging with fewer political wounds from the budget fight.

Senate Minority Leader Ken Maddy (R-Fresno) said: “As an individual, he can turn it around,” Maddy said. “It’s tough for us. What do we do to turn the thing around, the perception of the institution? So I think, long term, the Legislature is further damaged.”

Maddy argued that the budget battle is a passing issue, but also fits into “a general perception that we never seem to overcome.”

John Brennan, director of the Los Angeles Times Poll, supported Maddy’s claim by noting that a Times poll in May indicated that the state budget deficit ranked only sixth as “the most important problem facing California today,” being mentioned by just 4% of respondents. Unemployment and the economy were tied for first with 15% each and education was next at 10%.

Some Republican observers noted that Wilson had scored points by getting Democrats to give up on raising taxes or rolling over major portions of the deficit into the next fiscal year.

Should Wilson get final victory on these two points, the state presumably would be well into the black in 1993 as Wilson is gearing up his 1994 reelection campaign.

But if the solution is set back for another year, Wilson is a loser, said Steve Merksamer, a Sacramento lawyer who fought for structural budget reform as former Republican Gov. George Deukmejian’s chief of staff in the 1980s.

“I think the governor is entirely correct on substance,” Merksamer said in an interview. “The economy simply can take no more tax increases. That would be the last nail in the coffin.”

Merksamer believes, however, that Wilson and his staff have not done a good job of explaining the budget crisis to the public.

“He has a very compelling argument to make,” Merksamer said. “I don’t believe that message has been as well communicated as it needs to be to strengthen the governor’s position politically.”

Officially, the governor’s office argues that the the budget crisis could help the GOP win a majority in the state Assembly this year. Democrats dominate the Assembly 47 to 33.

“The one group that is helped from all this is the group of men and women who are running against incumbents,” said Dan Schnur, the governor’s communications director. “There happen to be more Republican challengers because there are more Democratic incumbents.”

Even before the severity of the budget crisis became apparent, Republicans were confident of picking up seats because of a decennial legislative districting plan adopted by the state Supreme Court that generally was favorable to Republicans. Unofficially, GOP officials believe the more realistic goal is to win 37 or 38 seats in the Assembly.

But Democrats also could find signs of hope in the political tea leaves. Brennan, of The Times Poll, said California voters increasingly put more trust in Democrats than Republicans to deal with the state’s problems.