COMMENTARY ON THE GOP : To Win Big in County, Bush Needs a Home Run in Astrodome : The President must persuade voters that he is in touch with their problems and in control of events, as well as offer a convincing message of hope in his Houston address.

When George Bush addresses the Republican convention at the Houston Astrodome this week, he will need an extraordinary performance to win back Orange County voters. In recent weeks, the national media have been in shock over polls showing Democrat Bill Clinton leading Bush in Orange County. Bush has actually been in trouble with local voters all year, as poor ratings for the President’s performance on the economy have taken their toll.

Outsiders are stunned about Bush’s second-place showing in a county with a national reputation as a Republican stronghold. In the last three presidential elections, Republicans carried Orange County by at least 300,000 votes.

But the place that was “Reagan Country” in the 1980s is no haven for Bush in the 1990s.

The President is being blamed for job losses and a shaky economy, as the county enters the third year of a recession with no end in sight. The boost that Ronald Reagan gave Vice President Bush in 1988 is now history and he needs to regain the support of several key constituencies to gain a major victory in Orange County.

A landslide in Orange County is crucial to Republican efforts to carry California. To offset Democratic strongholds in San Francisco and Los Angeles, Republicans generally need about a 300,000-vote margin in presidential elections--or about two-thirds of the vote--here. And if Orange County fails to deliver the state with the most electoral votes, it is doubtful that Bush can attain enough elsewhere to win the nation.

Republicans cannot rely on party members alone to provide a two-thirds victory in the county. About 55% of local voters are Republicans and 34% are Democrats, with independents making up most of the balance. So Bush needs the support of all the Republican voters--and about a quarter of the Democrats and independents as well--to achieve a 300,000-vote margin here.

How did Bush’s victory train come to face derailment in Orange County? When he entered office in January, 1989, our polls found 70% of local voters rating him favorably.

Two years later, in the midst of the Persian Gulf War, Bush’s popularity soared to 83%. Although the recession had already begun, most believed the local economy would recover by the year’s end. Even as late as last September, our polls found 63% inclined to reelect Bush.

But his ratings have been in a free fall since then. In March, with the economy still in the doldrums, only 47% were inclined to vote for Bush. His popularity dropped below 50% and a majority rated him “poor” on handling the economy. Seven in 10 did not expect economic recovery this year. And just before the June primary, our poll found only 36% intending to vote for Bush, with 42% opting for Perot and 16% for Clinton.

At the heart of the President’s fall from grace in Orange County is a 26% drop in the local Consumer Confidence Index measured between the beginning of his term and last April.

Events since April--such as the Los Angeles riots, layoffs and the state’s budget deficit--have likely eroded confidence even further.

A big win for Bush has become increasingly difficult under the current economic conditions. To retain the presidency, he needs to score points in the Astrodome with three key groups:

- Moderate Republicans. These pragmatic, white-collar professionals, small-business owners and corporate officers have been battered by the recession. They have seen rising unemployment, business failures and plummeting real estate prices plague Orange County’s economy. And they blame the President’s economic team. They are also upset about Bush’s support for outlawing abortions and Quayle’s fixation on “family values.” To win over this group, the President needs to articulate a solid economic plan and move to the center on social issues.

- Perot followers. These independent-minded voters have linked Bush with the bloated Washington bureaucracy. They are upset about the President’s apparent lack of a can-do spirit in improving the economy. To win them over, Bush needs to fuse Perot populism with the “Reagan Revolution” of individualism and less government that helped him woo county voters last time around. Perot supporters are the most volatile of the voting groups--the wild card that may determine this election.

- Swing Democrats. These ticket-splitters are worried about further job losses, upset about their lack of income growth and concerned that the local recession could drag on indefinitely. In addition, they see their public schools deteriorating under the “Education President,” and they have growing concerns about the environment. This group voted for Republican presidents in the past three elections because the party promised to keep taxes down and stimulate the economy. Now, Bush must persuade them he can top the Democrats at promoting middle-class prosperity and quality of life.

All three groups have a common beef with the President: They feel he’s out of touch with their problems and is no longer in control of events.

They have temporary amnesia about the positive moments of the Bush presidency--the independence of Eastern Europe, the end of communism in the Soviet Union and the liberation of Kuwait. They fear for their own finances and the nation’s economic future and they are searching for leadership and change. Their votes will belong to the candidate with the most convincing message of hope.

It’s too early to count Bush out of the race. This is his fourth consecutive appearance in a presidential campaign and that experience will help him.

But to regain the hearts of Orange County voters and have a chance of winning the state, he will need to hit one out of the park in Houston.