Voter Equation Is a Complex Calculation

Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton is perceived as being more optimistic, communicative and charismatic, but President George Bush is viewed as having a greater sense of sexual morality and patriotism, according to a new study of voter behavior.

A survey of 112 voters of all ages, representing both political parties, suggests that how people vote is based on an equation that includes a candidate’s leadership qualities, values, party membership and electability, said James Bean, a psychologist at Lock Haven University in Pennsylvania, one of the study’s authors.

“It’s not a simple equation,” he said. “Voters are rational, but they are also emotional. Voters are not as stupid as people say they are.”

Bean cautioned that the survey sample was too small to draw significant conclusions. But it did indicate how voters might be swayed this year. For example, previous studies on voter behavior did not show that a candidate’s electability--the chances that he or she will win--is that important. This survey showed electability may be a key factor.

“People want to back a winner. So they may take their cues from public information on who is the most electable,” Bean said. “If this finding (is correct), that means the media will play a serious role in this campaign.”

The study also found that people look closely at how a candidate’s attitudes and values about key issues--such as abortion rights--match their own. Typically, voters have also followed their party’s lead.

“But the role of the party is much less important in 1992,” Bean said. “People are crossing party lines.”

Republicans in the survey rated Bush poorly in some areas of leadership, such as the respondents’ view that Bush is a poor leader of his staff.

Still, voters can be swayed by emotions: “If the candidate makes the voter feel good . . . optimistic . . . that’s important. Emotion seems to play a bigger role than we thought it did,” Bean said.

The physical attractiveness of the candidate--once thought to be very important in who voters supported--did not seem significant in this study. The respondents tended to select a candidate based on other criteria and then would decide that their candidate was nice looking.

“It’s not that what is beautiful is good. It’s that if you’re a good candidate, you’re beautiful,” Bean said. “Ross Perot voters viewed him as very handsome.”