THE TIMES POLL : Bush Rebounds, Slices Clinton Lead to 8 Points

President Bush has gotten a strong “bounce” from the Republican National Convention, but still trails Bill Clinton nationally by eight percentage points, The Times Poll found in a survey concluded Friday night.

The Democratic front-runner led by 23 points in a Times Poll taken a few days before the GOP gathering.

The new results suggest that Bush did what he desperately needed to at his party’s convention--improve his image, sully Clinton’s and get back into the race. The two candidates now are in nearly the same running position as they were before either of the party conventions were held, based on various Times surveys.

But the President is far from out of the woods. Two-thirds of the people think the nation is off on the wrong track, the poll showed. And nearly half say the country is in a “serious” recession.

The nationwide survey, conducted Thursday and Friday, showed that Bush and his strategists adeptly used their party’s convention in Houston to substantially improve his image as measured by such key indicators as job approval, overall impression and ability to bring about prosperity and keep down taxes. In fact, the President now has his first positive job rating in almost a year, according to Times surveys.

And although many of those interviewed were critical of the GOP’s steady bashing of Democrats, the attacks apparently worked because a lot of voters now seem to be taking a more skeptical look at Clinton.

Meanwhile, Bush went a long way at the convention toward solidifying his GOP base, according to the survey. It was among Republicans that the President scored most of his gains. He gained almost no ground, however, among voters who identify themselves as independents.

The Times Poll, directed by John Brennan, interviewed 1,186 registered voters by telephone. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction.

As much as anything, the poll pointed up the fickle nature of the American electorate this year.

The beleaguered President, resolutely promising “the most stunning political comeback since Harry S. Truman gave them hell in 1948,” went into the convention lagging far behind Clinton--56% to 33%, according to a Times Poll last week.

In the latest survey, Clinton led among registered voters by 49% to 41%, with 8% undecided. Two percent volunteered that they favor independent Ross Perot.

In one week, Bush made substantial gains among his fellow Republicans, notably among moderate and liberal members of the party who had been drifting toward Clinton. He also pulled back to his side many GOP women who support abortion rights, unlike the President. These women now back Bush by nearly 4 to 1; before the convention they supported him by only a very thin margin.

The President’s standing also rose appreciably among Anglos--both men and women--as well as voters who identify themselves as middle-income earners and those over the age of 45.

And his stock climbed significantly with former Perot supporters; Clinton now holds only a very small lead among these voters.

Bush picked up substantial support in the West and now is virtually tied with Clinton throughout the region after having trailed badly before the GOP convention. Elsewhere, Clinton leads big in the East and holds narrow advantages in the Midwest and the South.

“Bounces” in polls are normal for presidential candidates after their high-profile conventions, which the parties try to orchestrate as four-day television commercials for the nominees. Indeed, Clinton enjoyed a significant bounce after the Democratic Convention in mid-July, soaring to a 20-point lead in a Times Poll, boosted in part by strong support from Perot backers. The Texas industrialist had announced he would not enter the presidential race on the last day of the convention.

Before the Democratic gathering in New York, Clinton had narrowly led Bush by six points in a two-way matchup by The Times Poll. So the two candidates now are back to running in roughly the same positions they were before the two conventions, as if they never happened.

The new poll found a major turnaround for Bush’s job rating. Fifty-three percent of the voters now approve of the way he is “handling his job as President,” with 44% disapproving. In the pre-convention poll only last week, the figures were virtually reversed, with 44% approving and 52% disapproving. The last Times survey to record a positive job rating for Bush was in November.

Just as dramatically, the electorate’s overall impression of the President has flip-flopped to his advantage. Now, 55% have a favorable impression and 42% an unfavorable impression. Last week, it was 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable.

The voters’ impression of Clinton still is favorable--54% to 35% unfavorable--but his negatives have risen in the wake of the working over he got in Houston. Before the convention, the Arkansas governor was viewed favorably by 57% and unfavorably by only 26%.

Unlike Bush, Vice President Dan Quayle did not emerge from the convention with voters having a positive impression of him, but his rating did improve somewhat. It is now 41% favorable and 51% unfavorable.

Clinton’s running mate, Sen. Al Gore of Tennessee, has a rating of 45% favorable and 17% unfavorable, but nearly four in 10 voters don’t know enough about him to express an opinion. His negatives climbed more than his positives during the GOP convention, according to the poll.

At the convention, neither Bush nor other GOP speakers could erase the electorate’s doubts about his ability to handle the economy. But he apparently took a big step toward that goal. Although Clinton still is thought of as the candidate who “would do the better job promoting economic prosperity”--by 48% to 39%--Bush improved his standing considerably on this measurement. Before the convention, Clinton led on this question by more than 2 to 1.

More stunning, Bush now is regarded as the man who “would do the better job holding down taxes”--by 44% to 31%--despite having broken his “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge of four years ago. Before the convention, the two candidates were virtually tied on this question.

But the electorate’s persistent overall pessimism about the nation continues to dog the President. Two-thirds of the voters believe the country is “seriously off on the wrong track.” Only one-fourth think it is “going in the right direction.”

The voters are about evenly divided on the question of whether “things in the nation will improve substantially during the next few years” if Bush is reelected. But they believe, by roughly 5 to 3, that things would get better substantially under a Clinton presidency.

The poll showed that Bush did leave the convention having persuaded the electorate that Congress is as much to blame for the economy as he is--a major goal of GOP strategists. Nearly 6 in 10 voters said each is responsible for a “good amount” of the mess.

Fewer voters also now think that Clinton’s views on the issues are “just about right” for them personally. Last week, 41% believed that; now 35% do. Similarly, more voters now regard the Democrat as more liberal than they did last week.

As for Bush, only 30% last week considered his views “about right,” but 41% do now. And there are fewer people who now regard him as too conservative.

Bush and other convention speakers placed heavy emphasis on his foreign policy record and it appears to have paid off. Fifty-eight percent now say the President “has made the world a safer place to live,” up from 47% before the convention.

And the voters believe that Bush would do “the better job handling foreign affairs,” by 69% to 18%.

More people (64%) also think that Bush “has strong qualities of leadership” than believe that of Clinton (51%).

But while Bush has emphasized “values,” the jury still is out on which candidate has the values that voters hold most important. Fifty-seven percent say Bush stands for such values, but 52% also assert that Clinton does.

Roughly two-fifths of the voters say that the two candidates’ views on abortion will have no effect on their vote in November. But among those who say it could have an effect, the beneficiary appears to be Clinton, who advocates abortion rights.

But abortion ranks down the list of issues that voters say they “would particularly like to hear discussed” during the fall campaign. At the top are the economy, unemployment and health care--all subjects presumably benefiting Clinton.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,186 registered voters nationwide by telephone Thursday and Friday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the country. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the margin of error is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL

Bush Gets His Bounce, Slashes Clinton’s Lead

President Bush trails Democrat Bill Clinton by 8 percentage points, an improvement over the 23-point gap of a week earlier, a Los Angeles Times Poll found: If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

Aug. 21 Aug. 14 Clinton 49 56 Bush 41 33 Someone else 2 2 Don’t know 8 9

THE ECONOMY Who do you think would do a better job on the economy?

Aug. 21 Aug. 14 Clinton 48 56 Bush 39 26 Neither 3 3 Both 1 2 Don’t know 9 13

HOLDING DOWN TAXES Who do you think would do a better job holding down taxes?

Aug. 21 Aug. 14 Clinton 31 36 Bush 44 34 Neither 12 14 Both 1 2 Don’t know 12 14

FOREIGN AFFAIRS Who do you think would do a better job handling foreign affairs?

Aug. 21 Aug. 14 Clinton 18 22 Bush 69 61 Neither 2 2 Both 1 3 Don’t know 10 12

HEALTH CARE Who do you think would do a better job providing affordable health care for most Americans?

Aug. 21 Aug. 14 Clinton 57 62 Bush 22 16 Neither 7 7 Both 1 2 Don’t know 13 13

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,186 registered voters nationwide between Aug. 20-21. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.