Change Has Already Come to the County : * Sour Economy Puts Republicans Here in Restive Mood

Orange County for years has been the quintessential Sun Belt Republican stronghold, delivering huge margins of victory for GOP candidates and providing a safe and certain sanctuary for party orthodoxy in a diverse land. However, last week’s Republican National Convention in Houston found the county’s leading politicos in an uncharacteristically restive mood--a sign of the times that was not restricted to our perennially secure stronghold of Republicanism.

But somehow stirring in the ranks in 1992 stands out a bit more than it would elsewhere. The county, so often caricatured as a haven of right-wing extremists, suddenly seems more a microcosm. It stands to reason that change on Main Street would also be reflected in the county’s dominant political party.

Change, and a sour economy, have also made for interesting times. It would have been unthinkable even four years ago that various polls on the eve of a Republican convention would show an GOP President trailing a Democratic challenger in this, of all American counties.

Who knows where it will all come out in November? But even the appearance of shifting sands suggests how much the county has changed. Moreover, the defense industry that provided jobs and the local housing boom that fueled the local economy have cooled, putting the county in touch with some of the hardships experienced by older regions.

And so, local delegates at the outset of the convocation last week were openly expressing the need for their ticket to find fresh ways of energizing activists and reaching out to turned-off voters. They were, of course, behind the President and talking about the need of getting on with the campaign too.

But there are different currents flowing in the ranks, and some Republicans in the county are openly abandoning the President. They were charting their own course even as local party leaders were away in Houston, a sign that maybe the county party’s leadership is not as inclusive or in touch as it needs to be. When Barbara Bush expressed distaste for the inclusion of an anti-abortion plank, and when Gov. Pete Wilson suggested that the abortion- rights wing of the party could live to fight another day, these sentiments were not entirely out of sync with what some locals were thinking.

Moreover, the delegation this week reflected some of the new demographics. In fact, national perceptions of Orange County have not kept pace with the real changes. A county so easily reduced to stereotypes has in fact come to reflect more closely the larger world.

Many are wondering whether the county will stay with the President this time. But even assuming it does, there are questions whether the margin would be enough to keep California in the president’s column. All of this points to the larger significance of this newly unpredictable local political landscape.

Some of the new dynamics may not be to everyone’s liking in a county accustomed to certainty. And it will take time for national stereotypes to unravel to reflect more closely the changes that have actually taken place.

But one thing is sure. Orange County Republicans, once predictably in lock step, now show some of the restiveness and diversity of the party as a whole. This may lead to some of the rancor and divisiveness we have already seen in the aftermath of the Dornan-Ryan primary campaign for Congress.

But if the county has changed, it has also matured. That at least can only be a positive thing for the long term.