THE TIMES POLL : Bush Takes O.C. Lead Over Clinton : But President’s edge is small--49% to 42%--leaving his statewide campaign in danger.

President Bush is leading Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in California’s Republican bastion of Orange County but by a margin so narrow that his statewide campaign remains in trouble, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Bush leads Clinton in Orange County, 49% to 42%--even though Republicans hold a 20-percentage-point lead in registration over Democrats in the county, 54% to 34%.

The poll of Orange County voters conducted over the weekend produced almost the reverse of a nationwide Times Poll conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention, which found Clinton leading, 49% to 41%.

As a rule, Republican statewide candidates look to Orange County for a winning margin of at least 200,000 votes to offset Democratic strongholds in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. In 1988, Bush carried Orange County, 68% to 31%, or 300,000 votes, when he defeated Democrat Michael S. Dukakis in California, 51% to 47%.

The President also is doing poorly among independent voters, a bloc that is crucial to Republicans statewide, since Democrats outnumber Republicans.

“The President is being hurt by overwhelming pessimism in the economy and what appears to be lackluster support from the moderate members of his own party,” said John Brennan, director of The Times Poll. “I think he faces a daunting task in carrying California.”

Largely due to the slumping economy, more than two out of three voters in the survey said they believe that the country is on the wrong track. And except among conservatives, Bush appeared to take much of the blame. One out of three moderate or liberal Republicans said they planned to support Clinton.

The poll contacted 1,067 voters in Orange County on Saturday and Sunday. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Bush’s struggle to hold together his Republican core in Orange County was evident last week when a prominent group of former supporters announced plans to create a campaign committee for Clinton.

The Arkansas governor is also well aware of his popularity in Orange County. In an interview aboard his campaign bus Sunday as it traveled through upstate New York, Clinton told The Times that he may be trailing Bush in Orange County, but he is not giving up on the area.

“I’m not through with them yet,” he said of Orange County’s voters. “I want to go back and take another run at them. That’s a little project of mine. I like it down there. I like Orange County.”

The Democratic nominee added that if he is down by as much as 10 points in Orange County, “it means I win by 15 in California, probably, something like that.”

The results of the poll were especially bad for Vice President Dan Quayle, who has been the Bush Administration’s champion among the conservative Republican voters who control the county’s politics.

More than half of the county’s voters have an unfavorable opinion of Quayle, including 40% of the respondents from his own party. Quayle’s rating was even lower in Orange County than his counterpart on the Democratic ticket, Sen. Al Gore.

Barely a quarter of the respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of Gore.

“I’d just as soon (Quayle) bowed out now so the Republicans could come up with a better candidate,” said Dennis Hlozek, 39, of Mission Viejo. A Republican who now plans to back Clinton, Hlozek said: “I think Dan Quayle is not qualified to be President, so certainly eight years as vice president would mean he would be running in 1996.”

Despite the high profile of social issues in Orange County campaigns, the survey also found that the struggling economy--not abortion, the environment or welfare--was the overwhelming driving force among those polled. When voters were asked to name the issues they would most like to hear discussed by the candidate, the top three responses were the economy, the deficit and unemployment.

Apparently because of unhappiness with Bush’s performance on those issues, the GOP is struggling to hold together the coalition of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats that helped it win the White House in 1988.

The survey found that most Democrats were returning to the fold. But even more striking was that one out of five voters in Bush’s own party said they plan to back the Democratic nominee.

Most of those prodigal Republicans, who represent about 11% of the county’s electorate, describe themselves as moderates and nearly half are between the ages of 26 and 44. But beyond ideology, they cited their distress over the struggling economy as the reason to break ranks.

Eight in 10 of Clinton’s Republican supporters said they believe that the nation is going in the wrong direction compared to 51% of other Republicans. More than half also said they are worse off financially than they were four years ago, nearly double the response from GOP voters supporting Bush.

One of those Republicans leaving Bush for Clinton is Frank Cates, 65, who voted for Republican Thomas Dewey against Harry S. Truman in 1948 and has backed the GOP presidential ticket ever since.

“It’s mostly because of a lack of action on the part of President Bush to handle our economic troubles,” said Cates, a retired Mission Viejo public affairs officer for Southern California Gas Co. “It seems like he hasn’t moved forward. . . . I thought the Republican convention was interesting and positive; I’m just not sure about their ability to follow through and get things done.”

Only 53% of the respondents in the survey said they had a favorable opinion of Bush, while nearly half said their opinion was unfavorable.

The results in Orange County are reflective of trends in the electorate nationwide, but when they appear among the most solidly Republican voters in California, it can only be bad news for the President.

Since Bush has been trailing Clinton in polls of California, the Republican campaign has been forced to consider whether it should go all out to win the state since the money might be better spent somewhere else.

Looking at the survey of Orange County, a Bush campaign effort might sway some voters. A third of the Republican respondents who said they support Clinton indicated that they might change their minds. But 40% of the group said there is nothing George Bush can offer them to win their support.

Overall, when voters were asked to name the one thing Bush could do or say that would most encourage them to support his reelection, 30% said nothing. The second most popular response was to offer a plan to improve the economy, (14%) followed by jobs (9%).

Bush’s campaign has tried to place blame for the bad economy on a Democrat-controlled Congress that has been an impediment to the reforms proposed by the White House.

While about two-thirds of the respondents in the survey said they blamed the Democrat-controlled Congress for today’s economic problems, three out of five also said the President bears responsibility, too.

The respondents also were almost evenly split when asked whether Bush has failed to offer effective programs for the economy or whether his programs had been torpedoed by Congress.

The President’s poor showing among independent voters in Orange County also signals trouble.

Republicans can win Orange County without carrying independents if they do well enough with the core GOP majority. But the loss of independents in this upscale, suburban county can still be seen as a warning for Republicans trying to carry the rest of the state.

In the Times Poll, Bush is losing Orange County independent voters to Clinton by 16 points, 48% to 32%. He is also losing independents nationwide, but by a smaller margin of seven points.

Another trouble group for Bush is the voters who turned disgust with politics as usual into support for the prospective campaign of Texas billionaire Ross Perot. About 37% of the respondents said they had once been in Perot’s camp. When he dropped from the race last month, Clinton was the biggest beneficiary of Perot’s Orange County support, as he was nationwide.

Clinton has inherited 47% of the Perot supporters in Orange County, compared to 43% for Bush. Bush has regained about two-thirds of the Republicans in Orange County who had fled to Perot, but 26% of those also went to Clinton.

Republican Julia Stutz, 49, of Buena Park, is one who returned to her party after a stint with Perot.

“I just liked what Perot had to say,” Stutz said. “I liked his proposals for taxation and the economy. I would vote for Donald Duck against Clinton. . . . The man has the morals of an alley cat.”

Abortion has been one of the most hotly debated issues in many of Orange County’s campaigns, but only 7% of the poll respondents named it as an issue they wanted to hear about from the presidential candidates.

The poll also found the county to be squarely in the abortion rights camp with 66% of the respondents saying they favor the Supreme Court’s landmark Roe vs. Wade decision. Only 21% said they were opposed.

The issue was clearly one of the factors driving moderate GOP voters to Clinton. Half of the Republicans backing Clinton said that Bush’s position on abortion alienated them.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,067 Orange County registered voters, by telephone, Aug. 22 and 23. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the county. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

A Narrow Advantage

President Bush has surged in front of Democrat Bill Clinton in Orange County. But his current lead is far smaller than the margin of victory for GOP candidates in each of the last four elections: If the 1992 general election for President were being held today for whom would you vote?

Orange County Bush: 49% Clinton: 42% Perot: 1% Someone else, don’t know: 8%

U.S. Clinton: 49% Bush: 41% Perot: 2% Someone else, don’t know: 8% The margins by which Republicans have carried the county in the last four presidential elections: Gerald Ford (1976): 27 Points Ronald Reagan (1980): 45 Points Ronald Reagan (1984): 50 Points George Bush (1988): 37 Points George Bush (As of 8/22-23) (1992): 7 Points Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Clinton Carrying Independents, Some Republicans

While President Bush has shot ahead of Gov. Bill Clinton among registered voters in Orange County, Clinton shows surprising strength among local independents and a small cadre of breakaway Republicans. Among all voters, Bush holds a slight edge in ability to handle the economy, but voters generally say they are worse off and don’t expect the situation to improve soon. Clinton scores well on providing better health care, while the President has the edge on foreign policy and keeping taxes down. If the 1992 general election for President were being held today for whom would you vote?

Bush/Quayle Clinton/Gore Other/don’t know Democrats 18% 76% 6% Republicans 73 20 7 Independents 32 48 20 Perot supporters 43 47 10 Men 49 43 8 Women 51 41 8 18-29 years 48 45 7 30-44 48 45 7 45-64 51 40 9 65 and older 50 39 11 High school dropouts 45 51 4 High school graduates 53 39 8 College graduates 49 42 9

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track? Orange County: Right direction: 24% Wrong track: 68% Don’t know: 8%

U.S.: Right direction: 24% Wrong track: 68% Don’t know: 8%

Three months from now, do you expect Orange County’s economy will be better than now, worse than now or about the same? Orange County: Better: 17% Worse: 21% Same: 59% Don’t know: 3%

Which of these statements comes closer to your view:

A) Bush has failed to offer effective programs for solving his country’s domestic problems.

B) Bush has offered effective domestic programs, but Congress has failed to enact them. Orange County: Bush failed: 42% Congress failed: 48% Neither, both: 7% Don’t know: 3%

U.S.: Bush failed: 44% Congress failed: 45% Neither, both: 5% Don’t know: 6%

Is your financial situation better or worse than it was four years ago? (Those saying “worse” were asked: Are you currently in the worst financial situation you have ever experienced or have you seen worse times?) Orange County: Better off: 28% Worst ever: 16% Not worst ever: 21% Same: 34% Don’t know: 1%

What issue or problem would you particularly like to hear the presidential candidates discuss this year? (most mentioned items) Orange County: Economy: 42% Budget deficit: 17% Unemployment: 16% Education: 13% Health care: 11% Taxes: 10%

U.S.: Economy: 36% Budget deficit: 12% Unemployment: 24% Education: 10% Health care: 18% Taxes: 11% Note: Total adds to more than 100% due to multiple responses. Other categories named by fewer than 10%. Who do you think would do the better job promoting economic prosperity? Orange County: Clinton: 40% Bush: 45% Neither, both: 7% Don’t know: 8%

U.S.: Clinton: 48% Bush: 39% Neither, both: 4% Don’t know: 9%

Who do you think would do the better job handling foreign affairs? Orange County: Clinton: 15% Bush: 77% Neither, both: 2% Don’t know: 6%

U.S.: Clinton: 18% Bush: 69% Neither, both: 3% Don’t know: 10%

Who do you think would do the better job holding down taxes? Orange County: Clinton: 22% Bush: 58% Neither, both: 12% Don’t know: 8%

U.S.: Clinton: 31% Bush: 44% Neither, both: 13% Don’t know: 12%

Who do you think would do the better job providing affordable health care for most Americans? Orange County: Clinton: 54% Bush: 27% Neither, both: 9% Don’t know: 10%

U.S.: Clinton: 57% Bush: 22% Neither, both: 8% Don’t know: 13% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Times staff writer David Lauter contributed to this story.