Weary Democrats Looking to Cut Losses in Budget War

Worn down after two months of confrontation with Gov. Pete Wilson, many Assembly Democrats are beginning to doubt their will to fight beyond Monday, the scheduled end of the legislative session.

For the first time since the standoff began July 1 with a dispute over future education spending, the Assembly Democrats are starting to sense that their two decades of control in the Legislature’s lower house may be in jeopardy if they continue to hold out for schools.

So they weigh their options.

They could stand and fight, even at the risk of losing in the November elections. They could capitulate to Wilson and criticize him for refusing to negotiate. Or they could free about 20 members--those in safe districts or who are lame ducks--to strike a deal with the Republicans without the direct participation of the Democratic leadership.

These possibilities and others--including the far-fetched notion of impeaching the governor--were considered at an emotional, soul-searching dinner Democrats held Tuesday night for their retiring members.

Reports from the private affair and events since then in the Capitol suggest that Assembly Speaker Willie Brown is paving the way for a controlled breakaway, in which the exact number of Democrats needed to pass a budget are given the green light to cast what have come to be known as “dirty votes.” Brown and other Democratic leaders would continue to oppose the deal, at least when it came to voting for specific cuts in health, education and welfare programs.

All of this strategizing is in preparation for the shift in focus expected to occur today after the Senate’s scheduled vote on a compromise budget crafted by President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Van Nuys) and Republican leader Ken Maddy of Fresno.

Roberti has tentatively agreed to a plan that would cut deeper into health and welfare services than Assembly Democrats have accepted. And he reportedly is close to accepting an education funding proposal that accomplishes Wilson’s goal of acting now to rein in future spending on schools.

Brown met with Roberti on Thursday in a final effort to shape the Senate plan to his liking. Other Assembly Democrats also crossed the Capitol for consultations with their Senate colleagues. But it was not clear what effect they were having on the emerging Senate plan, which remained under wraps late Thursday.

Whether the Senate passes or rejects that plan, the spotlight will move to the Assembly, where Democratic floor leader Thomas Hannigan of Fairfield says his members are in no mood to surrender but are finding their alternatives narrowing. The stalemate, he says, “hurts our caucus, hurts us individually, and at some point we’re dead meat.”

Brown said in an interview that he probably would suggest that his members support any budget the Senate passes. But he said he still would oppose the governor’s education bill, without which the Senate budget would not be balanced.

But the message many Democrats said they got from the recent discussions was that Brown might back off.

The prospect of holding out until November troubles Democrats because they fear it could lead to their defeat at the polls. Brown reportedly told them Tuesday that as many as 25 Democrats could lose if the stalemate lasts that long.

But Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica), who is running for the state Senate, said his colleagues who face tough reelection battles could emerge as heroes if they held out until the election and persuaded voters they were doing so to protect public education. Hayden concedes, however, that the chances of such a dramatic gesture are nil, because members fear the stalemate will work against them.

“But you have to be willing to lose in order to win,” said Hayden, who challenged an incumbent senator to win the Democratic nomination in June for a seat in the upper house. “Defeat over what you believe in is not the worst of outcomes. The Democratic caucus ought not become a carbon copy of the Republicans, cutting schools and cutting services.”

Brown also reportedly told his members that if they are not prepared to hold out, and they are not prepared to give in, the only other alternative would be to impeach Wilson. But that was considered so desperate a thought that it is not being taken seriously.

The point of the exercise, said several members who were there, was to drive home the notion that surrender is the only real option left to the Assembly Democrats. The only question is how to do it.

“It was a conversation to convey the context of how narrow the options are, to get members to say, ‘Gee, that’s where we have to head,’ ” said Assemblyman Steve Peace of Chula Vista.

Lame-duck Assemblyman Richard E. Floyd of Carson suggests that it could be an effective political strategy for Democrats to capitulate and then accuse Wilson of settling for nothing less than destruction of schools and the health and welfare safety net.

“If I were running for reelection and had a tough Republican opponent,” Floyd said, “I’d want to surrender now and get out and run against that candidate as Wilson’s candidate, the guy who hates schools, hates welfare mothers, you know. We’ve got some people here who ought to relish that.”

The more likely scenario, however, seems to be for the Democrats to put the best face on whatever deal emerges from the Senate and then provide the votes needed to get it passed. Their last hope seems to be to force Wilson to get virtually every Republican to vote for the budget. That way, Democratic challengers can use the Republicans’ voting records, particularly on the schools issue, against them in the fall.

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