Welcome Back to Soured Orange County, Mr. President

Hello, Mr. President:

Welcome back to Orange County this weekend. It’s a good thing Disneyland is still here or you’d probably have a hard time recognizing the place, right?

It must be a little like coming back to the old neighborhood and seeing that somebody tore down your old house, leveled the block and put up a carwash in its place.

You’d probably rather remember the Orange County of 1984, when you and Mr. Reagan were a hot ticket. Remember how much friendlier people were then? You and Mr. Reagan won 75% of the vote and carried the county by 414,000 votes on the way to a big win in California.

You came back in 1988 at the top of the ticket, of course. Everybody knew Orange County was more Reagan country than Bush country, but even though the Democrats talked optimistically before the election, you still got almost 68% of the vote against Michael Dukakis.

What was a little more ominous, however, was your raw vote total. About the same number of Orange County voters cast presidential ballots in 1988 as in 1984, but Bush-Quayle got 60,000 fewer votes than Reagan-Bush. Add that to the 55,000 more votes the Democrats got here in 1988 than in 1984, and it translated to your vote margin in the county shrinking from 414,000 to right around 300,000.

It also meant you carried California by a much smaller margin, down from about 58% in 1984 to 51%.

I’m afraid, sir, the trend is continuing in that direction and at a slightly accelerated pace. When I say “slightly accelerated,” I mean it in the way that a 2,000-pound boulder slightly accelerates as it rolls unimpeded down the side of a mountain.

In fact, just a week ago, a poll in this newspaper showed you in a dead heat in Orange County with Mr. Clinton, whom you have taken great pains to describe as wholly unsuited to be President.

I’m sorry. That probably made your breakfast come up, didn’t it?

If you’re running neck and neck in Orange County against a man you’ve described so unfavorably, you might consider speaking more charitably about him. At the very least, that would make you look better by comparison.

All of us in Orange County, Democrats and Republicans and Perotistas alike, are wondering what you’re going to say here to rally your supporters. Although local GOP leaders have disparaged notable defecting Republicans like Kathryn Thompson and Roger Johnson, they are compounding your felony by doing so.

We now see in hindsight that what Thompson and Johnson said a year ago about you turned out to foreshadow quite accurately one of your biggest problems nationally--namely, that you didn’t acknowledge the gravity of the country’s economic problems. What I hear Thompson and Johnson and others saying even now is that they wouldn’t have left the fold this year if you had acknowledged their concerns and been more forceful in tackling the troubled economy.

Your big problem around here is that the neighborhood is changing. You and the party did well when there were lots of people with lots of things to protect, like wealth and property and steady incomes. But the recession is clobbering California. More and more people are losing those things--or fear they will lose them. As those things fly out the window, loyalty soon follows.

Even so, you might have been able to control the damage. People seemed to consider you a decent and tolerant person. Add to that your steeliness during and after the Gulf War, and you had built up an impressive amount of personal cachet with people.

Then, along came your party’s convention and platform--the tone of which the incumbent President always sets--and now people aren’t so sure whether they can relate to you or not.

Let me give you an up-to-the-minute example that I think typifies your problem.

While I was writing this column, a woman called and wanted to know how to reach Kathryn Thompson. The caller said she’s been a loyal Republican but is unhappy with the direction of the party and wanted to let Thompson know she supported her efforts. Believe me, she isn’t the first person who wanted to know how to reach Ms. Thompson.

The caller said she was particularly troubled by the tone of the GOP convention, considering it generally too harsh and out of step with her views. Among other things, she specified her support for a pro-choice position on abortion.

In conclusion, she said, she wants to vote Republican, “but I just can’t do it.”

I know it’s just one voter, and maybe I’m making too much of the coincidence of the call, Mr. President, but I think she’s reflective of a large number of your former supporters here in Orange County.

How are you going to get them back in the fold?

Some national media have written about missed opportunities--referring to chances you’ve had to win people back but which you didn’t take advantage of.

That’s what seems to be at stake for you this weekend in Orange County.

To borrow from a Madonna song title, this used to be your playground.

You used to be able to count on having a good time out here, didn’t you?

As you know, sir, time marches on. Things change.

Dana Parsons’ column appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by writing to him at The Times Orange County Edition, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, Calif. 92626, or calling (714) 966-7821.