THE TIMES POLL : Clinton Holds 21-Point Lead Over Bush in State

Democrat Bill Clinton holds a whopping 21-point lead over President Bush in California amid growing voter concerns that the state is “off on the wrong track” and the nation is plagued by serious economic troubles, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

This pocketbook pessimism is even more prevalent in California than in the country as a whole, according to various Times surveys. And most voters in the state have little confidence that things will greatly improve if Bush is reelected.

As for Clinton, the Arkansas governor’s popularity has risen markedly in California since late spring, interviews showed. But Bush still is viewed negatively and, if anything, is even less liked than he was when The Times conducted a similar statewide survey in May.

In the latest Times Poll, Clinton led Bush by 57% to 36%, with 5% undecided and 2% volunteering they would vote for somebody else.

When independent businessman Ross Perot was added to the mix--as he will be on the November ballot in California--it had no net effect on the outcome. Clinton still led by 21 points. The result was Clinton 49%, Bush 28%, Perot 17%, and 5% undecided, with 1% for somebody else.

Last May, The Times’ statewide survey showed Clinton narrowly ahead of Bush by only two percentage points in a two-way matchup. But Perot led Clinton by 13 points and Bush by 14 in a three-way contest. Since then, however, Perot’s popularity has slipped dramatically, and he now is regarded about as negatively as the President. Perot withdrew from the race in July, saying he had determined that he could not win, but he ensured that he remained on the ballot.

The Times Poll, directed by John Brennan, interviewed 1,330 registered California voters by phone in the four days ending Sunday night. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction.

In assessing the candidate matchups, The Times Poll examined how likely the registered voters were to actually cast ballots in November. But the results came out essentially the same, regardless of whether a high or low turnout was projected.

The survey turned up good news for Clinton and ugly numbers for Bush, whose campaign strategists had been assuming that the President was trailing by only 10 points or so in the nation’s most populous state, which offers fully one-fifth of the electoral votes needed to elect a President.

Republican presidential candidates have carried California for nine of the last 10 elections, including 1988, when Bush edged out Democrat Michael S. Dukakis by three percentage points. But in seven of those elections, a Californian was on the GOP ticket--either Ronald Reagan or Richard M. Nixon. In 1992, voters in this state clearly have no similar loyalty toward Bush, even if he was Reagan’s vice president. Three-fourths of the Democrats who backed Reagan in 1984 said they will vote for Clinton.

In fact, roughly one-sixth of the self-described Republicans and one-fourth of the conservatives say they will vote for the Democratic nominee. Conversely, just one in 14 Democrats plan to cross party lines to back Bush.

In the battle for traditional swing voters, roughly 6 in 10 independents and even slightly more philosophical moderates support Clinton, the survey found.

Bush appears to be running worse in California than he is in the country as a whole, according to various polling organizations. For example, a Gallup poll taken for Newsweek last week showed Clinton holding a 15-point lead, as did a new Washington Post/ABC News poll released today.

In California, Clinton’s larger 21-point lead, as shown by The Times Poll, obviously is being driven by the state’s stubborn recession. The latest unemployment rate here is more than two percentage points higher than the national average. And just last week, in another major blow to the state’s economy, Hughes Aircraft Co. announced it would move all of its missile-building operations to Arizona, a loss of 4,500 more Southern California defense industry jobs.

Such real-life figures were reflected in the latest poll results.

Asked whether things in California are “generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track,” 85% of the registered voters answered “wrong track.” Only 10% said “right direction.” By contrast, a nationwide survey by The Times in late August--at the windup of the Republican National Convention--found 68% of the electorate believing things were off on the wrong track.

Less than a year ago in California, 59% of those interviewed by The Times Poll said things in the state were on the wrong track.

Similarly, last April only 48% of Californians thought the nation was in a “serious” recession, according to a Times survey. But people are much more pessimistic now, with 61% regarding the economic situation as serious. Nationally, only 46% of those interviewed in late August viewed the recession so gloomily.

Many Californians blame the Republican President for the sour economy, the survey indicated. And they have little confidence things would get better during a second Bush term. Fifty-seven percent said it is unlikely that “things in the nation will improve substantially during the next few years” if Bush is reelected.

On the other hand, 64% said that if Clinton is the next President things are likely to substantially improve.

And answering a version of the famous question that Reagan put to voters in 1980 when he ousted Democrat Jimmy Carter from the Oval Office, 40% of those surveyed said they are financially worse off today than they were four years ago. Only 26% said they are better off. The rest estimated they are about the same.

Clinton, rather than Bush, was regarded as the candidate who “would do the better job of promoting economic prosperity,” by 51% to 34%. By an even larger margin, 65% to 15%, Clinton was thought to be the best prospect for “providing affordable health care for most Americans.” He also was regarded as the best bet for the environment, by 57% to 22%.

Bush, far and away, was considered the best person for handling foreign policy, by 60% to 26%. And despite having broken his “Read my lips, no new taxes” pledge, the President was given the benefit of the doubt on potentially “doing the better job of holding down taxes,” by 43% to 33%.

But only 2% of those interviewed said they want to hear the candidates discuss foreign policy. And just 8% were interested in hearing about taxes. What they particularly desired to have discussed was the overriding issue that benefits Clinton: the economy. Sixty-two percent volunteered that they want to hear the candidates’ ideas on the economy and unemployment.

Some of the other notable voter concerns in California were education (17%), the federal deficit (13%) and health care (12%).

Only 4% wanted to hear about abortion and just 2% about moral values. Bush has been outspoken on both. He supports a constitutional amendment to ban abortion and advocates “family values.”

Bush, Vice President Dan Quayle and their surrogates all have been taking swipes at Clinton as an alleged draft dodger during the Vietnam War. Three-fourths of the California voters said that Clinton’s past draft status will have no effect on their vote. About one in five, however, asserted it will make them less likely to support him.

Clinton was viewed positively by a majority of those interviewed; 58% had a favorable impression and just 31% an unfavorable impression. Last May, only 43% of Californians were favorably impressed with him.

By contrast, California voters had a negative impression of Bush: 39% favorable, 58% unfavorable. People who dislike him cited his handling of the economy and talked about a lack of leadership and trust.

Bush similarly continues to be nagged by a poor job rating. Only 39% approve of the way he handles the presidency while 58% disapprove, according to the latest statewide survey.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,695 California adults, including 1,330 registered voters, by telephone, from Sept. 10-13. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in either English or Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total samples of adults and registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results may also be influenced by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Clinton Leading by 21 Points in California

Bill Clinton has established a big among Californian’s, registered voters, who are increasingly pessimistic about the state’s situation, according to a Times Poll:

If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Clinton and George Bush, for whom would you vote? Clinton: 57% Bush: 36% Perot*: 1% Someone else: 1% Don’t know: 5% *Response volunteered

If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Clinton, George Bush and Ross Perot, for whom would you vote? Clinton: 49% Bush: 28% Perot*: 17% Someone else: 1% Don’t know: 5%

If Bush is reelected President, how likely is it that things in the nation will improve substantially during the next few years? Likely: 41% Unlikely: 57% Don’t know: 2%

If Clinton is elected President, how likely is it that things in the nation will improve substantially during the next few years? Likely: 64% Unlikely: 33% Don’t know: 3% Source: Los Angeles Times poll of 1,330 registered voters in California taken Sept. 10-13. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.