BASEBALL : Dodgers Need Braves’ ‘Worst-to-First’ Plan

It is generally acknowledged that the Atlanta Braves will be the team hurt most in the Nov. 17 expansion draft, that in a time of depleted talent the Braves have much more than can be protected on a list of only 15 players.

“I think that’s true, but there’s two ways to look at it,” General Manager John Schuerholz was saying at Dodger Stadium Tuesday night. “I mean, would you rather have too much or too little? Would you rather be in the position that you’re able to replace what you lose, or would you prefer not having that kind of depth?

“We’re going to have a tough time getting down to 15, but I look on it as a nice problem.”

Nicer yet is that the Braves are about to repeat as National League West champions, converting the last-to-first fantasy of 1991 into a 1992 reality check on their depth and talent. They will be the first team to repeat in the West since the 1977-78 Dodgers, and maybe there is a lesson in it for the 1992 Dodgers.

“I look out and see a lot of young talent,” Atlanta third baseman Terry Pendleton said of the Dodgers. “They have to decide if they’re going to go with it and let it develop at this level. They may struggle for a couple years, but this club struggled for five. Now you see the result.”

The Dodgers, as one American League scout put it Tuesday night, “have a long and dark hole” to dig out of, but so did the Braves. Manager Bobby Cox laid the foundation as general manager, drafting and trading for as many young pitchers as possible--Steve Avery, John Smoltz, Pete Smith, Kent Mercker and David Nied among them.

Schuerholz came on as general manager last year and signed free agents Sid Bream, Rafael Belliard and Pendleton to stabilize the defense and supplement the offense, but the development initiated by Cox continued.

Now the Braves have a future book of highly regarded prospects drafted in the last few years, including shortstop Chipper Jones, first baseman Ryan Klesko, catcher Javier Lopez, outfielder Mel Nieves and pitcher Nied, and Schuerholz, responding to emergencies, has dealt from strength.

Since August of last year, he has acquired Alejandro Pena, Mike Bielecki, Damon Berryhill and Jeff Reardon in trades for minor league players who no longer figured in Atlanta’s plans.

Cox reflected on the course he took and cited the need for patience and the support of ownership.

Patience, he said, to let the young players grow and learn from their mistakes while fighting the temptation to trade them for quick-fix veterans. And ownership support that will allow you to stay the course despite hammering from fans and media.

“Ted was ready to go the route we took,” he said of owner Ted Turner. “The payroll was out of hand, and he’d had enough of losing.”

After losing 92 or more games during the previous four seasons, the Braves were 94-68 last year and are 90-60 with 12 games to play.

They are first in the league in runs despite long struggles by Ron Gant and David Justice, second with a 3.29 earned-run average that is superior to last year’s 3.43, and fourth in fielding. The touted rotation of Avery, Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Charlie Leibrandt and Smith is a modest 10-12 over the last 32 games, but 51-22 with a sub-3.00 ERA since May 27.

Catcher Greg Olson, a spiritual leader and gritty receiver who had the respect and rapport of his pitchers, is out with a broken leg suffered last Friday, but the Braves have a veteran replacement in Berryhill.

Pena, who replaced injured Juan Berenguer with a near flawless effort down the stretch last year, could be out of the playoffs with an elbow problem, and setup man Mercker is a question mark because of a rib injury, but the Braves have depth in the setup role with Mike Stanton and Mark Wohlers and a proven closer in Reardon.

“You can’t win without a quality bench, and that’s what we have,” said Berryhill, who is proving, he said, that “what goes around comes around.”

In 1989, when the Chicago Cubs were on their way to winning the National League East, Berryhill tore a rotator cuff in early September and became a spectator in the playoffs. Now, Olson’s injury has thrust him into the starting role.

“I remember how it was for me in ’89 and my heart goes out to Greg and his family,” Berryhill said. “On the other hand, I have a job to do, and I feel I can do it.

“People ask me if I can handle the new pressure, but I don’t look on it that way. I’ve been splitting time with Greg all season. I know the club, I know the pitchers.”

With Olson and Pena sidelined, the acquisitions of Berryhill and Reardon seem providential, if not more. Smoltz said the ’92 Braves are better than the ’91 Braves, citing improved depth, the return of Otis Nixon, who was on drug suspension during last year’s playoffs, the return of pitcher Smith from two years of injuries (he is 6-0) and another MVP-caliber season by the team leader, Pendleton.

“I think any time a team wins more games it has to be considered a stronger team,” he said. “Our pitching is better, and we have the experience of last year (when they lost to the Minnesota Twins, 1-0, in Game 7 of the World Series).

“What Pittsburgh has done (closing in on a repeat in the East despite budget restrictions and the departure of Bobby Bonilla and John Smiley among others) is extraordinary, but I think we’ll be awfully tough to beat in a seven-game series unless we don’t score.”

The Braves defeated the Pirates in seven games in last year’s playoffs and won this year’s series, 7-5. They are driven to repeat, hungry for the World Series ring they almost won last year, Smoltz said.

“Any team can catch lightning and win once, but the chance to repeat removes the doubt and legitimizes where you are as an organization,” he said.

The Braves are legitimate. If another season of 90-plus victories doesn’t prove it, just wait for the expansion draft.