OAS-Haiti Deal to Lift Embargo Reported Near

The military-imposed regime will recognize Jean-Bertrand Aristide as Haiti’s “political” president if international sanctions against the country are lifted, the armed forces receive financial help and it is agreed that Aristide will not come back here in person, according to government and diplomatic sources.

Nothing has been formally agreed to, and Aristide supporters say any such understanding is unacceptable and would “lead to a social explosion.” But the sources say that such an arrangement is nearing completion anyway between the current regime of Prime Minister Marc Bazin and representatives of the international community.

American officials are known to believe that the United States and the Organization of American States could live with the arrangement, although it falls far short of the policy adopted in the wake of a military coup that forced Aristide--a radical, populist Roman Catholic priest--out of the presidency and into exile last Sept. 30.

At that time, the OAS, urged on by the United States, condemned the coup and imposed a punishing economic embargo intended to stay in place until democracy is restored and Aristide is returned physically to office.

A year later, however, Haiti has survived the sanctions. Furthermore, U.S. officials have become disillusioned with Aristide and embarrassed by the continuing futility of the Bush Administration’s efforts to impose its policy here.

Under the new approach, the United States and the OAS would have to modify, if not lift, the embargo and recognize the current regime of Prime Minister Bazin. Aristide would have to accept an amnesty for the military officers who participated in his removal.

In turn, Aristide, Haiti’s first democratically elected president, would be accepted as president in name. But he would have no functional authority and could not return here until after his term expires in 3 1/2 years.

Another concession offered by Bazin, who was badly beaten by Aristide in the 1990 election, is cooperation with an 18-member OAS observer team that has begun to function here--down from the 500 originally envisioned--to monitor human rights and evaluate needs for humanitarian assistance.

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Beyond these, Bazin government officials say that, because of pressure from radical anti-Aristide elements in the military, no more concessions can be made.

In fact, said one Bazin government official, if his plan is not accepted in the next eight weeks, including an end to the sanctions, Bazin will be forced out of office and replaced by a military-backed regime of the extreme right.

The official, speaking of the military as “those guys looking over (Bazin’s) shoulder,” said: “We have reached the bottom; there is no more leverage left.”

Everyone must realize, he said, “that there are people in the military who would die” before permitting Aristide to return “and would let the country die. . . . I know damn well (Bazin) can’t go any further.”

American officials, including policy-makers in Washington, while doubting that there is no more room for negotiating, essentially accept the view that Aristide cannot come back here, at least without foreign military intervention.

In addition, these officials indicate they have lost nearly all faith in Aristide himself, with one saying that a “president does not a democracy make.”

Aristide has made impossible demands, they say, such as insisting that army Commander in Chief Raoul Cedras be tried for treason. And they say that negative aspects of his record while in office make him wholly unacceptable now, particularly to the Haitian armed forces.

These officials claim to feel so strongly that Aristide is the main obstacle to a solution to the Haitian crisis that they say Washington may be willing to use damaging information it has acquired about him as leverage to persuade him to accept the Bazin proposal.

U.S. officials point to Aristide’s continuing inflammatory and often anti-American statements, which are particularly galling since the ousted president now lives in Washington.

They also claim that Aristide’s attitude, perhaps even more than that of the military, scuttled an agreement earlier this year that would have recognized Aristide as president, with his personal return to the country to be negotiated later.

“We can’t make Haiti a perfect society,” said one official, “and we are not going to destroy the country on behalf of one person.”

None of these arguments sway Aristide’s backers here.

Father Antoine Adrien, a Roman Catholic priest named to negotiate for the exiled president, said in an interview that “Aristide will not accept” the idea of giving up his demand to return. “There is no way the people will accept that.”

Aristide’s counterproposal calls for a prime minister from the opposition, but not Bazin. Adrien said Aristide would not even negotiate with Bazin unless the prime minister resigns. And the goal must be Aristide’s return as functional president. Otherwise, there “will be a social explosion,” Adrien said, “a major, major explosion.”

Aristide was unavailable for comment Sunday evening.

Right now, U.S. officials doubt the forecast of an “explosion,” asserting that while Aristide remains popular, most of the people are so worried about living from day to day that they want stability and an end to the sanctions more than anything else.

In their concern to get the crisis settled in a face-saving way for the OAS and the Bush Administration, U.S. officials have begun redefining the purpose of the OAS sanctions resolution.

According to the revisionist approach, the resolution was not an uncompromising demand that Aristide be returned as the sign of a restored democracy but a way “to get us to this point of negotiations.”

Bazin claims that his proposal, plus his and the military’s acceptance of the OAS observer mission, are more than enough to justify lifting the sanctions.