Clinton Commercial Rips Bush Tax Pledge

Democrat Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign has released three new 30-second television commercials. The campaign refused to disclose where and when his ads will run, but generally the spots have been concentrated in a dozen or so key battleground states in the Northeast, South and Midwest.

The Ad: After a film clip showing George Bush saying: “Read my lips” during the 1988 Republican Convention, a narrator intones: “Then, George Bush signed the second biggest tax increase in American history.” The “read my lips” clip is replayed, and the narrator says: “George Bush increased taxes on the middle class. Bush doubled the beer tax and increased the gas tax by 56%. Now George Bush wants to give a $108,000 tax break to millionaires. $108,000. Guess who’s going to pay?”

Analysis: The ad is basically accurate; Bush in 1990 broke his much-publicized pledge not to raise taxes. The bill he signed increased taxes $125 billion over five years, and the Congressional Budget Office confirms that it was the second-largest tax hike ever. It did increase taxes on the middle class, double the beer tax and increase the gas tax by 56%. The claim that Bush wants a $108,000 tax break for millionaires is more speculative. The Clinton team derived this number by using IRS data to calculate the impact of the President’s proposed 1% tax cut and capital gains tax reduction. Bush aides counter that the President has never said how his tax cut would be implemented.

The Ad: The second ad opens with Clinton working at his desk in the Arkansas governor’s office. As he toils, a narrator says: “For 12 years, he’s battled the odds in one of America’s poorest states and made steady progress. Arkansas is now first in the nation in job growth. Even Bush’s own secretary of labor just called job growth in Arkansas “enormous.” He moved 17,000 people from welfare to work. And he’s kept taxes low. Arkansas has the second-lowest tax burden in the country. No wonder his fellow governors, Democrats and Republicans, have named him the nation’s most effective governor.

Analysis: The percentage of new jobs in Arkansas was the highest in the country for the year ending June, 1992. However, the state’s job base is low, meaning any increase in jobs tends to be reflected with high percentage figures. During much of Clinton’s tenure as governor, the state’s job growth was below the national average. The quotation from Labor Secretary Lynn Martin calling Arkansas job growth “enormous” is taken out of context. She was trying to make the point that the figures were derived from a low base. It is true that a Clinton-sponsored program has moved 17,277 people from the welfare rolls to work. But the ad does not note how many state residents moved onto the welfare rolls. The figure measuring Arkansas’ tax rates takes a somewhat optimistic view. Arkansas’ state and local tax burden ranks between second- and eighth-lowest, depending on the measurement technique used. Measuring state taxes alone, Arkansas’ tax burden ranks in the middle nationwide.

The Ad: The Clinton campaign’s third ad aims to counter a controversial new Bush commercial. “George Bush is running attack ads,” the narrator begins in the Clinton spot. Images of four people featured in the Bush ad gradually appear. “He says all these people would have their taxes raised by Bill Clinton. Scary . . . huh? ‘Misleading,’ says the Washington Post. And the Wall Street Journal says: ‘Clinton has proposed to cut taxes for the sort of people featured in Bush’s ad.’ So why is Bush doing it? Because George Bush had the worst economic record of any President in 50 years.” As a picture of Bush comes on the screen, the ad concludes: “George Bush is trying to scare you about Bill Clinton. But nothing could be more frightening than four more years.” The last line is matched by the text on the screen.

Analysis: The Clinton ad accurately reflects the press reviews of the Bush commercial. The Bush spot is based on suspect analyses of Clinton’s economic package and the assumption that the Democrat would respond to less-than-expected revenues by raising taxes. Clinton on Friday called the Bush spot “blatantly false” and “outrageous.” He added: “If the average person thought it was true, they’d probably be inclined to vote against me.” In the Clinton ad, meanwhile, the assertion that Bush has the worst economic record in 50 years is an oversimplification--the verdict depends on what numbers are looked at. It is true that, under Bush, growth in real median family income has been less than at any time since World War II. But inflation during the Bush presidency has remained under control.

The Bush campaign released a new 30-second ad Friday attacking Clinton, its second negative spot in as many days. The campaign refused to say where the ad was running, but the previous one was aired nationally, with greater frequency in key battleground states.

The Ad: The commercial begins with a split screen showing two men standing side by side in coats and ties. Each face is covered by a gray dot. “The presidential candidate on the left stood for military action in the Persian Gulf, while the candidate on the right agreed with those who opposed it,” a narrator says. The picture shifts to one of the candidates, the dot still over his face. “He says he wouldn’t rule out term limits.” Then it shifts to the other candidate, “While he says he’s personally opposed to term limits.” The picture shifts again. “This candidate was called up for military service, while this one claims he wasn’t. One of these candidates is Bill Clinton. Unfortunately, so is the other.” The frame then freezes on Clinton’s picture, and Clinton’s voice is heard saying: “There is a simple explanation for why this happened.

Analysis: These are issues on which Clinton has waffled--although perhaps not as clearly as the ad suggests. In January, 1991, Clinton said after the Senate vote on military action in the Gulf: “I guess I would have voted with the majority if it was a close vote. But I agree with the arguments of the people in the minority on the resolution--that we should give sanctions more time and maybe even explore a full-scale embargo . . . before we go to war.” Much later, he described himself in stronger terms as a supporter of the decision to go to war. Clinton has long been a critic of term limits, but he has also called them “a decision the people ought to make.” On the military draft issue, Clinton in his comments early in the campaign failed to mention that he had received an induction notice while attending Oxford University in 1969; he generally left the impression he had never been sent one. He has since said he did not recall the notice, explaining that he did not receive it until after the date for his physical and, as a result, his draft board told him to disregard it.