A SNAPSHOT OF THE ASSEMBLY RACES

The numbers tell the story. Democrats now control the state Assembly, 47 to 33. But Republicans see political turmoil, new districts and anti-incumbency as a creating a chance to cut that lead or even gain a majority in the lower house. Democrats are counting on Bill Clinton coattails and a strong field of women candidates to blunt the GOP attack in close races. They also hope some hard-line Republican candidates will turn off voters.

HERE ARE THE KEY FACTORS:

1. Out of 80 incumbents, 28 are retiring, running for other offices or running in newly drawn Assembly districts. Many races are wide open, with no incumbent.

2. A fresh wave of candidates is seeking office, including 43 Democratic and Republican women. An unprecedented number of races are in doubt and upsets are expected.

3. New district boundaries resulting from reapportionment attracted minority candidates to the June primaries. Many of them are expected to win easily Nov. 3.

4. The 63-day budget impasse in Sacramento fueled public anger. But it isn’t clear whether returning incumbents will suffer or benefit from their votes on the budget. Gov. Pete Wilson is expected to campaign vigorously for Republican Assembly candidates.

MINORITY REPRESENTATION

Statewide redistricting was expected to boost the chances of minority candidates. As many as seven Latinos are virtually certain to be elected to the Assembly. That would add three to the Latino delegation, despite the fact that three Latino incumbents are retiring or running for other offices. Two candidates--Lon Hatamiya of AD3, a conservative Democrat, and Oxnard’s Republican Mayor Nao Takasugi in AD37--stand a good chance of becoming the first Japanese-Americans to serve in the Assembly since the mid-1970s. African-American representation is expected to remain the same, at seven seats.

WOMEN IN THE ASSEMBLY

The current Assembly has 16 women members, but eight are not seeking reelection or are running for other offices or for Assembly seats in new districts. In the November election, 27 of the 79 Democratic candidates, or 34%, are women, as are 16 of the 74 Republican candidates, or 22%. As many as 25 of these candidates could be elected, which would increase the number of women in the Assembly to nine. 80 Assembly Seats, Last Assembly Women: 20% 79 Democratic Candidates Women: 34% 74 Republican Candidates Women: 22%

Party Registration

Of the 230 candidates running for the Assembly, 77 are third-party candidates. Because of overwhelming voter registration percentages that favor the major parties, none of these candidates are expected to win.

Here are the state’s third parties and their registration totals statewide: Libertarians: 66,996 Peace and Freedom: 68,182 Greens: 95,000 American Independent Party: 217,000 Republicans: 5,355,328 Democrats: 6,870,982

The Assembly Races Fall Into These Categories:

Incumbent ‘Safe Seats’

These are Assembly members who enjoy an advantage in voter registration. In some cases they face little or no opposition. Almost all are expected to be reelected without difficulty.

DEMOCRATS: AD8 Thomas M. Hannigan 51% D -- 43%R AD9 Phillip Isenberg 65% D -- 24% R AD11 Robert J. Campbell 54% D -- 32% R AD12 John L. Burton 60% D -- 21% R AD13 Willie Brown 62% D -- 16% R AD14 Tom Bates 68% D -- 14% R AD16 Barbara Lee 68% D -- 18% R AD18 Johan Klehs 59% D -- 28% R AD19 Jackie Speier 54% D -- 32% R AD20 Delaine Eastin 51% D -- 34% R AD23 Dominic L. Cortese 62% D -- 25% R AD26 Sal Cannella 55% D -- 35% R AD27 Sam Farr 50% D -- 32% R AD30 Jim M. Costa 58% D -- 32% R AD31 Bruce Bronzan 63% D -- 27% R AD39 Richard Katz 60% D -- 29% R AD40 Barbara Friedman 54% D -- 33% R AD42 Burt Margolin 58% D -- 28% R AD45 Richard G. Polanco 61% D -- 24% R AD47 Gwen Moore 74% D -- 15% R AD48 M. Archie-Hudson 87% D -- 5% R AD51 Curtis R. Tucker Jr. 70% D -- 20% R AD52 Willard H. Murray Jr. 79% D -- 12% R AD79 Steve Peace 56% D -- 31% R

REPUBLICANS*: AD2 Stan Statham 45% D -- 43% R AD4 David Knowles 43% D -- 46% R AD29 Bill Jones 45% D -- 45% R AD32 Trice Harvey 43% D -- 47% R AD33 Andrea Seastrand 39% D -- 47% R AD38 Paula L. Boland 40% D -- 48% R AD43 Pat Nolan 42% D -- 45% R AD54 Gerald N. Felando 43% D -- 45% R AD59 Richard L. Mountjoy 39% D -- 50% R AD60 Paul Horcher 43% D -- 46% R AD63 Jim Brulte 40% D -- 50% R AD65 Paul A. Woodruff 42% D -- 47% R AD67 Doris Allen 35% D -- 53% R AD70 Gil Ferguson 29% D -- 60% R AD71 Mickey Conroy 29% D -- 60% R AD72 Ross Johnson 32% D -- 57% R AD74 Robert C. Frazee 31% D -- 53% R

Non-Incumbent ‘Safe Seats’

These are candidates who won their primary elections in districts where they enjoy a comfortable registration advantage. Winning the primaries virtually assured them of victory in November.

DEMOCRATS: AD46 Louis Caldera 64% D -- 22% R AD49 Diane Martinez 59% D -- 28% R AD50 Martha M. Escutia 66% D -- 22% R AD55 Juanita M. McDonald 68% D -- 21% R AD57 Hilda L. Solis 56% D -- 33% R AD58 Grace M. Napolitano 63% D -- 28% R

REPUBLICANS*: AD15 Richard K. Rainey 38% D -- 49% R AD34 Kathleen M. Honeycutt 39% D -- 48% R AD36 Wm. J. (Pete) Knight 34% D -- 54% R AD37 Nao Takasugi 40% D -- 46% R AD73 Bill Morrow 30% D -- 56% R AD75 Jan Goldsmith 31% D -- 53% R

Candidates Considered Likely To Win These candidates also have an advantage in party registration. Some are incumbents, which has traditionally been considered an advantage. However, in a season of political instability, some could be upset.

DEMOCRATS: AD6 Vivien Bronshvag 52% D -- 31% R AD7 Valerie Kent Brown 54% D -- 34% R AD21 Byron D. Sher 47% D -- 38% R AD22 John Vasconcellos 48% D -- 37% R AD28 Rusty Areias 52% D -- 32% R AD35 Jack O’Connell 43% D -- 41% R AD62 Joe Baca 58% D -- 33% R AD69 Tom Umberg 50% D -- 40% R

REPUBLICANS*: AD5 B.T. Collins 46% D -- 43% R AD44 William E. Hoge 43% D -- 45% R AD61 Fred Aguiar 45% D -- 45% R AD66 Ray Haynes 35% D -- 53% R AD68 Curtis L. Pringle 42% D -- 47% R AD77 Steven C. Baldwin 39% D -- 46% R

The Hottest Assembly Races

In a normal political year, only a handful of ASsembly races might be considered tossups. In 1992, there are more than a dozen. Which party controls the Assembly could well rest on the outcome of these races. AD1 Anna L. Sparks (GOP) vs. Dan Hauser 54% D -- 32% R AD3 Lon Hatamiya (Dem.) vs Bernie Richter (GOP) 43% D -- 43% R AD10 Katherine L. Albiani (Dem.) vs. Larry Bowler (GOP) 46% D -- 43% R AD17 Michael J. Machado (Dem.) vs Dean Andal (GOP Inc.) 55% D -- 35% R AD24 James T. Beall Jr. (Dem.) vs. Charles Quackenbush (GOP Inc.) 43% D -- 43% R AD25 Margaret Snyder (Dem.) vs. Barbara Keating-Edh (GOP) 48% D -- 42% R AD41 Terry B. Friedman (Dem. Inc.) vs Christine Reed (GOP) 49% D -- 39% R AD53 Debra L. Bowen (Dem.) vs. W. Brad Parton (GOP) 42% D -- 43% R AD56 Bob Epple (Dem. Inc.) vs. Phillip D. Hawkins 49% D -- 41% R AD64 Jane Carney (Dem.) vs. Ted Weggeland (GOP) 45% D -- 44% R AD76 Mike Gotch (Dem. Inc.) vs. Dick Daleke (GOP) 40% D -- 44% R AD78 Dede Alpert (Dem. Inc.) vs. Jeffrey I. Marston (GOP) 38% D -- 45% R AD80 Julie Bornstein (Dem.) vs. Tricia Rae Hunter (GOP Inc.) 45% D -- 43% R

Vulnerable Incumbents

Political professionals who guide party strategy tend to key on incumbents who appear to be in jeopardy. The parties and their loyal donors funnel money to these races.

DEMOCRATS: AD1 Dan Hauser (Dem. inc.) 54% D -- 32% R AD21 Byron D. Sher 47% D -- 38% R AD22 John Vasconcellos 48% D -- 37% AD41 Terry B. Friedman 49% D -- 39% R AD56 Bob Epple 49% D -- 41% R AD69 Tom Umberg 50% D -- 40% R AD76 Mike Gotch 40% D -- 44% R AD78 Dede Alpert 38% D -- 45% R

REPUBLICANS: AD17 Dean Andal 55% D -- 35% R AD24 Charles Quackenbush 43% D -- 43% R AD80 Tricia Rae Hunter 45% D -- 43% R

Possible Upsets

Voter registration numbers often dictate the outcome of legislative races, but this year great uncertainty prevails. Here are races that political analysts point to as ones where candidates with registration disadvantages may defy the odds. Possible upset winners are listed first. AD7 Janet G. Nicholas (GOP) vs. Valerie Kent Brown (Dem.) 54% D -- 34% R AD21 Jan La Fetra (GOP) vs. Byron D. Sher (Dem. inc.) 47% D -- 38% R AD22 Tim Jeffries (GOP) vs. John Vasconcellos (Dem. inc.) 48% D -- 37% R AD28 Peter Frusetta (GOP) vs. Rusty Areias (Dem. inc.) 52% D -- 32% R AD35 Allen O. Ebenstein (GOP) vs. Jack O’Connell (Dem. inc.) 43% D -- 41% R AD36 Arnie Rodio (Dem) vs. Wm. J. (Pete) Knight (GOP) 34% D -- 54% R AD62 Steve Hall (GOP) vs. Joe Baca (Dem.) 58% D -- 33% R AD66 Patsy Hockersmith (Dem.) vs. Ray Haynes (GOP) 35% D --53% R AD77 Thomas M. Connelly III (Dem.) vs. Steven C. Baldwin (GOP) 39% D -- 46% R)

The Republican Factor*

Traditional wisdom in California holds that a district is a tossup when Democratic registration is less than 52% and GOP registration is less than 37%. Because GOP voters tend to be loyal and Democrats are more likely to cross over, a district is considered to be safely Republican when it has more than 43% of the registered voters. Likewise, a safe margin for Democrats is about 56%. Incumbents with less favorable numbers have often made up for that with the so-called “incumbent advantage.” Because of the unusual political instability that prevails this fall, this wisdom may no longer hold.

Source: Registration figures from secretary of state’s office as of May.