STATEWIDE ELECTIONS / PROPOSITION 156 : Transit Officials Anxiously Await Voting Results

Only four months ago, transportation officials were jubilantly celebrating a critical victory for mass rail transit in San Diego County.

Now, the same officials are anxiously awaiting the outcome of Proposition 156, a $1-billion bond measure on the November statewide ballot that will determine whether local rail projects move ahead swiftly or stall.

If the proposition is defeated because of voter indifference, hostility toward government or alarm over recession spending, local officials fear that $120 million will be lost for San Diego County transit projects that include:

* Oceanside-to-San Diego commuter rail.

* Oceanside-to-Escondido light rail.

* The San Diego Trolley’s East Line extension to Santee.

* The trolley’s extension to Old Town.

* The trolley’s Mission Valley extension.

* Mid-Coast light rail extension.

Transportation officials hope voters will embrace Proposition 156 and keep up the momentum that hit a high point last June, when, after years of back-room bickering, the Santa Fe Railway finally agreed to sell 336 miles of track needed for trolley and commuter train lines throughout the Southland.

That $500-million deal included 82 miles of right of way to establish commuter rail service from Oceanside to downtown San Diego and light rail from Oceanside to Escondido.

In a county increasingly troubled by smog, the commuter rail is expected to carry 3,500 passengers a day when it begins in 1994, and light rail is expected to take 17,000 riders a day. By year 2010, an estimated 10,000 riders a day are projected to take the commuter line.

Such rail projects and other efforts--namely greater emphasis on ride-sharing and bicycle trails--are part of a master strategy to improve air quality and reduce the number of vehicles on congested freeways.

But funding is essential to complete rail transportation.

Proposition 156 is the second of three $1-billion bond measures. Voters handily approved the first, Proposition 108 in 1990, and the final measure will appear on the 1994 statewide ballot.

If all three are approved, $3 billion would be available throughout the state, and San Diego County’s share would be $350 million. However, if voters defeat Proposition 156, the county would lose about $120 million.

“The big question will be, if this bond measure doesn’t pass, what will happen to the one in 1994? That’s a pretty big source of funds for capital projects,” said Craig Scott, manager of transportation finance for the San Diego Assn. of Governments, a regional planning agency.

Nobody is warning that failure to pass the bond measures will stop rail projects cold, but limited funding is predicted to slow completion of projects and result in less service for riders.

Pete Aadland, transportation marketing officer for the North County Transit District, said voter rejection of Proposition 156 wouldn’t prevent commuter rail from starting in 1994, but it would “limit our ability to expand the service.”

He said the rail line could only carry passengers during peak commuting hours, but there wouldn’t be enough funding for rolling stock to also provide mid-day, evening and weekend service.

Also, Aadland said a defeat for the measure would deny funds to improve parts of the right of way, such as smoothing out the route to decrease travel time.

Some funding would still exist to meet county transportation needs, namely revenue from the special half-cent local sales tax that last year generated about $110 million for transportation, including $34 million earmarked for mass transit.

However, Scott said the tax alone isn’t enough to adequately pay for transit projects, and the recession has reduced sales tax revenue over the last two years.

He believes the bond funding is vital to supplement the half-cent sales tax qualify the county for federal transportation funding. A coalition of organizations supports Proposition 156, including the California Manufacturers Assn., the state Sierra Club and the California Assn. of Persons With Handicaps.

Although there’s no visible opposition to the measure in San Diego County, Ryan Snyder, a Los Angeles urban planner and transportation specialist, has signed the ballot argument against Proposition 156.

In an interview, he argued that most major cities in California lack the concentrated population to make rail transit effective. Such rail service is fine in cities like New York and Tokyo, where people can easily walk from their homes or jobs directly to a transit station.

But in spread out-cities like Los Angeles, he maintains, potential riders are discouraged by the need to take a shuttle service to reach the station.

“We’re putting up billions of dollars, and we’re going to get very little out of it in terms of relieving congestion,” Snyder said.

He favors spending more money on a better bus system--one that would use cleaner-burning fuels--and on a bigger network of bicycle routes.