Instant Polls Pick Winner While Debate Still Echoes : Media: Voters surveyed by news organizations generally agree Clinton, Perot benefited from 3-way exchange, while Bush lost ground.

With the speed of instant polls, people meter machines, voter focus groups and plenty of punditry, the media consensus is in on the first debate of this presidential race.

“Let’s call a spade a spade: Ross Perot won this debate,” said ABC’s Cokie Roberts shortly after it was over. Many of her counterparts at CBS, NBC and the nation’s newspapers agreed.

George Bush lost. “Bush did not emerge . . . with the big win his advisers know he needs,” the Washington Post declared on Page 1.

And Clinton widened his lead--moving a step closer perhaps to becoming President of the United States.

“Clinton won because he did not lose,” declared influential conservative columnist William Safire in the New York Times.

Surveys conducted almost instantly by CBS, Gallup-CNN-USA Today and ABC News showed voters were impressed by Perot’s performance. Newsweek found 43% thought Perot won the debate, with 31% for Clinton and 19% for Bush. CBS had it 33% Perot, 30% Clinton and 16% Bush.

Yet in the presidential horse race, the percentage of voters supporting Clinton held steady, while Bush dropped. Perot gained some. “The Oval Office is now a prize clearly within Bill Clinton’s grasp,” USA Today declared in its poll story.

The CBS poll showed Clinton’s lead over Bush grew from 5 percentage points to 12. The ABC poll showed Clinton’s lead over Bush grew from 14 points to 15.

Clinton also seemed to win the subtle war for the sound bite--the derby over which moment from the debate gets replayed over and over in the news.

On the late news Sunday and the morning news shows Monday, Clinton generally managed two sound bites. One condemned Bush for tactics that Clinton claimed smacked of Sen. Joseph R. McCarthy, whom Bush’s father, Prescott Bush, had voted to censure in the 1950s. The other showed Clinton turning to face Bush to say, “For 12 years you’ve had it your way. You’ve had your chance and it didn’t work. It’s time to change.”

Perot was seen with his quick comeback about his lack of experience in government: “I have no experience running up a $4-trillion debt.”

Bush was seen mostly on the defensive--often attacking Clinton in a way that was seen to set up Clinton’s retort on McCarthy. The best he managed in the moments replayed on the news was this: “Change for change sake isn’t enough.”

Historically, such polls and quick verdicts after debates tend to shift over time. Margins tend to widen. Narrow victories become landslides, as the conventional wisdom spreads.

But this year the post-debate verdicts could be different for three reasons:

* A third candidate makes them more complicated. Clinton benefited greatly even coming in second, for example.

* The next debate--this one among vice presidential candidates--occurs today, giving the consensus less time to solidify.

* With more instant polls and other technology, the verdicts seem swifter and surer than before.

ABC, for instance, quickly telephoned previous poll respondents and produced its poll within half an hour of the debate’s end. The results were available so quickly that some of the instant analysts knew the numbers before going on the air. CBS’ poll numbers were ready within 90 minutes.

All this seems to minimize the impact of the campaign operatives who are trying to manipulate public perceptions and of the media analysts who render judgments. By the time they have opened their mouths, the first polls are already completed.