ELECTIONS / 23RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT : Camps Say Big Win by Clinton May Affect Race

In the close and bitterly fought congressional race between Republican Rep. Elton Gallegly and Democrat Anita Perez Ferguson, both sides have begun to speculate that the outcome could be affected by a big victory by Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.

With polls showing Clinton far ahead of President Bush in California, Gallegly (R-Simi Valley) conceded last week that the issue of Clinton’s political coattails at the congressional level has become a matter of growing concern.

“I would be less than candid if I said it didn’t concern me,” Gallegly said.

Gallegly, nonetheless, said he still believes he will win the contest in the 23rd Congressional District.

“We take nothing for granted and we’re working very hard,” he said. “We’re confident. We have a safe lead. But we will work hard, as we always do, to protect that lead.”

Describing the race as “very close,” Perez Ferguson said she believes that Ventura County voters tend not to vote straight party tickets. But she added that she believes a strong Democratic turnout sparked by the presidential race would help her chances.

“The more people who turn out, the better our opportunity,” she said.

On the other hand, the possibility that a Clinton victory might be projected hours before the polls close in California could keep Ventura County voters away from the polls, she added.

“It could cut both ways,” she said. “A snap count influences what happens with the vote locally. It’s really hurtful to the process.”

Despite Gallegly’s concern about the coattail effects of a big Clinton victory, one top national Republican pollster said he doubts that the outcome of the presidential race will have a significant impact on many congressional races.

Kevin O’Donnell, director of survey research for the National Republican Congressional Committee in Washington, said Gallegly is one of many incumbent Republican congressmen showing better polling numbers than Bush.

“He’s ahead and by much more than the margin of error,” O’Donnell said of his polls in the Gallegly-Perez Ferguson race. He would not disclose the figures.

O’Donnell also dismissed the impact of the so-called Year of the Woman factor in the 23rd District race, as well as anti-incumbency sentiment in many areas of the nation. The primary factor in the Gallegly-Perez Ferguson race is ideology, he said.

“I don’t know of any other House race that is so clear on ideology,” O’Donnell said.

Bruce Bradley, the Ventura County assistant registrar of voters, also expressed doubts about a significant coattail factor in the 23rd District race, saying Ventura County voters have a history of splitting their ballots.

“They’re very independent,” Bradley said. “There’s not much knee-jerk Republican voting or knee-jerk Democratic voting.”

Richard Ferrier, chairman of the Ventura County Republican Central Committee, agreed, saying voters might not want to give the winning presidential candidate a blank check.

“There could be a hedging of bets,” he said.

Jim Dantona, a Simi Valley political consultant and Democratic Party activist, was cautious about Clinton’s coattails making a big difference in the Gallegly-Perez Ferguson race.

But Dantona said a privately funded Democratic Party poll completed in mid-October showed Perez Ferguson leading by a few points, and said a big Clinton victory could be important to Perez Ferguson in a close race.

“This is a dogfight,” Dantona said. “It could bump her up one or two percentage points. And this race being so close, that could be enough to win.”

Gallegly and Perez Ferguson are battling for a seat in an area that covers Carpinteria and all of Ventura County except most of Thousand Oaks.

Gallegly, a conservative, and Perez Ferguson, an education consultant who describes herself as a moderate Democrat, have underscored in their campaigns the importance of creating jobs in Ventura County, which is suffering through a severe recession like the rest of the state.

A three-term incumbent, Gallegly takes a strong position on law and order and has the support of major law enforcement officials in the county. He has also stumped for maintaining a strong defense posture despite the end of the Cold War.

Perez Ferguson has pushed for an overhaul of the nation’s health-care system through a government/private sector partnership and supports abortion rights, which Gallegly does not except in cases of rape, incest or when a woman’s life is endangered.

Both candidates support the death penalty, and both support a constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget.

But punctuating the campaign has been a strong assault by Gallegly on illegal immigration into the United States. Gallegly has emphasized the illegal immigration issue to the point where Perez Ferguson’s top aides have branded his campaign as racist.

As the contest headed into the home stretch, Perez Ferguson, 43, resoundingly attacked the 48-year-old Gallegly’s congressional record in a flyer that brought into question whether the lawmaker broke the law.

The four-page flyer, produced by the Campaign Performance Group in San Francisco, is titled “Bad Boy!” and features on its cover a leering man fanning a stack of dollar bills. In the background are film strips showing the same individual rolling in money.

Declares the flyer:

“Elton Gallegly may be laughing, but he’s been a bad little congressman. Because what he’s been doing in Congress is worse than misbehavior . . . it’s practically criminal.”

Asked to characterize the flyer, Sam Rodriguez, Perez Ferguson’s campaign manager, said he thought it was “humorous, creative, direct, factual.”

Gallegly strategists were outraged.

“We were shocked that Perez Ferguson has sunk to a new low in her campaign,” spokesman John Frith said. “All but charging Elton with being a criminal is just obscene. That’s really hitting below the belt. It’s an insult to the intelligence of Ventura County voters.”

Among its allegations, the flyer reiterates criticism from an earlier Perez Ferguson mailer that Gallegly used campaign funds to pay the rent on his campaign office in a Simi Valley building that Gallegly co-owned.

Gallegly paid himself and the building’s co-owners about $45,000 in rent during his first five years in the House. In 1988, prodded by questions from reporters, Gallegly asked the watchdog Federal Election Commission in Washington if the practice was legal. The FEC, following a lengthy investigation, took no action, but admonished the lawmaker about the way he handled his campaign bookkeeping. Gallegly moved out of the campaign office earlier this year.

For her part, Perez Ferguson ran into trouble with the FEC for not reporting her campaign contributions in a timely manner in her unsuccessful race for a House seat two years ago. FEC spokeswoman Sharon Snyder said Perez Ferguson was fined $2,000 for breaking election rules, which she paid off in installments earlier this year.

In her latest campaign expenditure report, covering July 1 to Sept. 30, Perez Ferguson disclosed that she used contributions to pay for such items as parking tickets ($90), the repair of her car’s transmission ($350.05) and her dry cleaning ($137.35).

The FEC’s Snyder said the federal statute governing campaign expenditures “allows candidates broad discretion” on how they choose to spend the money they raise.

The only caveat, said Mark Davis, counsel for the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct (commonly known as the House Ethics Committee), is that campaign funds must be used “for bona fide campaign purposes. You can’t convert campaign funds for personal use.”

Both Perez Ferguson and campaign manager Rodriguez expressed ignorance over the parking tickets expenditure. Also, Perez Ferguson said she had no information on the transmission and cleaning bills.

When asked for more information on these items, Rodriguez said he had no time to discuss them.

“I have a campaign to run,” he said.

Gallegly appears to be entering the final week of the campaign with a big financial advantage over Perez Ferguson. As of mid-October, he reported a campaign cash balance of about $206,000 contrasted with about $44,000 for Perez Ferguson.

Still, Gallegly may need every penny of this cash.

Final voter registration figures show Democrats with an edge over Republicans in this newly drawn district, 43.4% to 41.7%.

“Both candidates need strong turnouts,” said a Republican campaign consultant who requested anonymity. “This is a very tough year. There’s volatility, anger among the voters.”

Historically, he said, “Republicans vote in a blizzard while Democrats may not vote on a clear day.” But “new wave Republicans” who pride themselves on being independent-minded and swing voters “might not show up” if there is a Clinton landslide, he added.

“Their swing vote might be just not to vote,” he said.