THE TIMES POLL : Clinton’s Strong Lead Holding in California

Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton is still running comfortably ahead of President Bush in California, with Ross Perot having little effect on the race, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

A statewide survey conducted after the final presidential debate and completed Friday night showed Clinton with a 19-point lead over Bush among registered voters. Perot was third, having picked up little ground since a similar poll in mid-September.

Clinton had 47% to Bush’s 28% and Perot’s 20%; other candidates had 1%, and 4% were undecided.

By comparison, a Sept. 10-13 survey showed Clinton leading Bush by 21 points, 49% to 28%, with Perot at 17%.

When only likely voters are counted in the latest survey, Bush gains some and Perot drops slightly. The results: Clinton 47%, Bush 32%, Perot 18%, undecided 3%.

Although some nationwide surveys by other news organizations have shown the race tightening across America, with Perot gaining support at Clinton’s expense, The Times Poll found no such situation in California.

Perot’s candidacy appears to be hurting Clinton and Bush about equally here. In a hypothetical two-way race, Clinton leads Bush by 20 points--just one more than if Perot is included. Perot’s supporters divide almost evenly between Clinton and Bush when their candidate is not included.

The Times Poll, directed by John Brennan, conducted telephone interviews of 1,110 registered voters for four days, Oct. 20-23. Among those surveyed were 833 likely voters. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction for all registered voters and four points for those considered likely to cast ballots on Nov. 3.

“Clinton can get in trouble in three ways: if Bush somehow manages to improve his own image, if Clinton’s negatives increase to the point where they approach Bush’s, or if Perot’s support rises high enough so that he becomes a legitimate alternative for ‘soft’ Clinton voters. But so far in California, none of those things has happened,” Brennan said.

In one important respect, Perot has rehabilitated himself since re-entering the contest on Oct. 1. The Texas billionaire’s image among California voters has been reversed from negative to positive: 58% now have a favorable impression of him, and only 34% look on him unfavorably. Last month, it was nearly the opposite: 25% favorable and 53% unfavorable.

So Perot’s candidacy does have some potential to take off again in California, as it did last spring. In a May statewide survey by The Times Poll, Perot actually led Clinton by 13 points and Bush by 14. But after he quit the contest in July, many Californians soured on the independent. And although they are viewing him positively again, this has not yet translated into significantly increased support for a Perot presidency.

One factor at play is that Perot already had a stronger base of voter support in California than he did in the nation as a whole, and, unlike in other parts of the country, this base has not grown much here in recent weeks.

In fact, Perot’s support is softer than the other candidates’. More than a third of his backers said they might wind up voting for somebody else. If they did, the poll indicated, their votes would divide almost equally between Bush and Clinton--meaning neither would benefit over the other. By comparison, fewer than one-sixth of Clinton’s and Bush’s supporters are “soft,” or not firmly committed.

Conversely, if Perot’s candidacy were to surge in California, pollster Brennan said, “it seems unlikely he would pull down Clinton without injuring Bush as well.”

Clinton continues to derive much of his strength from Bush’s weakness and the voters’ pocketbook pessimism.

The Republican President’s job rating is at an all-time low in California, based on various Times surveys. Only 32% approve of his performance in the Oval Office and 65% disapprove. That is even more negative than last month, when 39% approved and 58% disapproved. Nearly one-third of Republicans disapprove of Bush’s job performance and two-thirds of the independents do, along with 9 in 10 Democrats.

Eighty-one percent of California’s voters believe that “things are seriously off on the wrong track” in the state. Even 70% of Republicans say this, according to the survey. And among people who think this way, Clinton has a 28-point lead.

Nearly 6 in 10 voters believe the state remains in a “serious” recession. This is a substantially gloomier view than expressed by Americans about the country as a whole, according to a recent nationwide survey by The Times Poll. Californians who believe this favor Clinton by 36 percentage points over Perot and by 38 points over Bush.

Responding to the famous question Ronald Reagan asked Americans in 1980--were they better or worse off than four years before--37% of the Californians said they are worse off than when Bush was elected. Those people favored Clinton by 33 points over Perot and by 43 points over Bush. Only 32% said they were better off, and even they leaned slightly toward Clinton over the President.

More voters have a negative impression of Bush than a positive one: 41% favorable and 58% unfavorable, roughly the same as last month. Their impressions of Clinton are nearly a mirror opposite: 57% favorable and 40% unfavorable. But the Democratic nominee’s unfavorable rating has risen nine percentage points since September, as Bush has steadily attacked Clinton’s character.

As for the running mates, Vice President Dan Quayle is even less popular than Bush in California: 35% view him favorably and 62% unfavorably. The Democratic vice presidential nominee, Sen. Al Gore of Tennessee, has fewer negatives than Clinton himself. Fifty-six percent view Gore favorably, versus 23% unfavorably.

Perot’s running mate, retired Vice Adm. James B. Stockdale, remains a mystery to many voters. Half have no opinion; the remainder tilt toward an unfavorable view, 29% to 21%.

Roughly half of those interviewed said they watched all three presidential debates, and three-fourths said they saw at least two. Perot clearly enhanced his image in the debates, the poll showed. Two out of five Republicans, as well as independents, said they were more likely to vote for the Texan because of his debate performance. Only 1 in 10 independents felt this way about Bush’s performance.

Among all voters interviewed, 46% said Clinton won the confrontations, 25% gave the nod to Perot and just 11% said Bush was the victor. In fact, only a third of Bush’s own supporters said he won the debates.

One-third of all respondents said the debates were a “very important” factor in their decision on the candidates. They supported Clinton over Perot by 48% to 26%, with Bush trailing at 20%.

Only half of Bush’s supporters reported backing him mostly because they “like him and his policies.” Almost as many said they would vote for the President “because he is the best of a bad lot.” But 6 in 10 of Clinton’s supporters, and almost as many of Perot’s, said their votes were based on positive attitudes about the candidates. One-fifth of Perot’s supporters said they just felt “like sending a protest message.”

As for the issue of character, more people felt that Perot possessed “the honesty and integrity to serve as President” (62%) than believed this about Bush (54%) or Clinton (53%).

More voters believed that Bush could “be trusted to handle a major crisis” (75%) than felt this way about Clinton (55%) or Perot (45%).

More said Clinton would “do the best job of bringing the changes America needs” (43%) than believed this about Perot (27%) or Bush (23%).

And more thought Bush “would do the best job of holding down taxes” (41%) than believed that about Clinton (27%) or Perot (14%).

But on the issue of foremost concern to the voters, based on this and every other survey, Perot and Clinton were rated virtually even on the question of who “would do the best job of promoting economic prosperity”--38% for Perot and 37% for Clinton. Bush was a distant third at 19%.

Only 63% of Bush’s fellow Republicans are supporting him. Another 23% back Perot.

Clinton draws 81% of the Democrats and 39% of the independents; 30% of the independents side with Perot.

Reagan Democrats are swinging back to their own party, backing Clinton over Bush by 57% to 10%, with 25% supporting Perot.

Clinton leads Bush among men, 40% to 30%, with 25% going to Perot. And the Democratic nominee gets an even bigger share of the women’s vote: 52% to Bush’s 26% and Perot’s 16%.

BUSH NARROWING GAP: Times Mirror survey shows Clinton lead is ebbing. A14

Where Candidates Stand in California

With little more than a week left until Election Day, a Times Poll places Bill Clinton comfortabl y ahead of President Bush in the state, with Ross Perot so far having little net impact on the race:

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Oct. 23 Sept. 13 Likely voters Registered voters Registered voters Clinton 47% 47% 49% Bush 32 28 28 Perot 18 20 17 Someone else -- 1 1 Don’t know 3 4 5

HOW POLL WAS TAKEN: The Times Poll interviewed 1,110 registered voters statewide, including 833 likely voters, by telephone Oct. 20-23. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points, and among likely voters it is plus or minus 4 percentage points.