TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Local Vote Could Put Prop. 165 Over Top : Politics: The 3-1 Republican support for Wilson’s welfare and budget reform measure could be decisive statewide, where polls have it close. County Democrats oppose it 2 to 1.

Support in Orange County for Gov. Pete Wilson’s hotly contested plan to reduce welfare costs and alter the state’s budget process is split along party lines, with Republicans favoring the proposal in Proposition 165 by nearly 3 to 1, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

The strong Republican support has given the measure a slight majority among all Orange County voters (51% to 39%) even though local Democrats oppose the plan by nearly 2 to 1.

The results in Orange County could also play a key role in determining the fate of the controversial plan statewide, since a Los Angeles Times Poll published Tuesday found California voters almost evenly split for and against the idea.

The two sides involved in Proposition 165--which could be a political watershed for Wilson’s first gubernatorial term--have generated $6.9 million in contributions with much of the money coming from Republican backers and Democratic opponents.

The measure would put new restrictions on the state’s largest welfare program--Aid to Families with Dependent Children--by cutting all payments 10%, with another 15% reduction after six months for families that include an able-bodied adult. In addition, the proposal includes a controversial plan to grant the governor broader authority over the state budget if the Legislature is unable to meet its July 1 annual deadline.

The Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, contacted 600 Orange County registered voters by telephone last weekend.

The poll surveyed voter opinions for five propositions on the California ballot next week with most results showing a clear distinction between the concerns of Democrats and Republicans.

In Proposition 166, for example, the need for better health care is balanced against the concerns of adding to the burdens on small businesses. The plan would require all businesses to provide health care to employees--including some part-time workers. Businesses with fewer than 25 workers would get a tax credit to offset some of the cost.

Orange County Democrats strongly supported the idea, 59% to 33%. But the feeling among Republicans was solidly against the idea, with 52% against and just 37% in favor.

Among all Orange County voters, the measure fell short of a majority, with 48% in favor and 43% opposed. Statewide, the measure was favored by 49% with 35% opposed.

The Orange County poll also found younger voters supporting the health care initiative with most of those over age 55 opposed.

There was just one ballot proposition that received 2-to-1 support among Orange County and California voters as well as a majority of Republicans and Democrats. That was the plan in Proposition 164 to limit the terms that a member of Congress can serve.

Orange County voters backed the idea 64% to 27%, almost equal to the statewide support levels. It was considerably more popular among Orange County Republicans (73% in favor) than it was among Democrats (54%).

The Congressional Term Limits Initiative, which follows a measure passed in 1990 to limit terms for California legislators, would prevent a candidate from running for the House if he or she has served six years or more of the previous 11 years. Candidates would be restricted from running for the U.S. Senate if they have served 12 years or more in the previous 17.

More than a dozen states across the country have similar measures on the ballot. But opponents fear that, if passed, the idea could leave California’s delegation in Washington at a disadvantage to state’s without federal term limits.

Orange County’s reputation as a conservative, business-minded land of affluence could be affected by opinions on Proposition 167’s proposal to reorganize state taxes. The plan would increase rates for the wealthy and reduce the burdens on lower- and middle-income residents with sales tax cuts and renters’ credits.

The proposal failed to draw majority support among Orange County voters. Fewer than half of the county’s voters (47%) liked the idea and 39% opposed it. Still, it was doing better in Orange County than it was statewide, where voters were almost evenly split on the idea--42% for and 44% against.

And again in Orange County, there was a partisan split on the proposal with 59% of Democrats favoring it, while just one in three Republicans supported the measure.

Orange County voters were also more supportive than the state overall on the Physician-Assisted Death Initiative, Proposition 161.

The Times Poll found California voters sharply divided on the measure, 49% to 45%. But in Orange County, there was clear support with 57% in favor and 37% opposed. A majority of Orange County voters in both parties backed the idea, although Democrats showed the strongest support with nearly 2 to 1 in favor.

The measure would allow mentally competent adults whose conditions are diagnosed as terminal to ask their physicians for aid in dying.

Initiative Support

PROP. 161 (Physician-Assisted Death)

Allowing mentally competent adults with terminal diseases to ask their doctors for assistance in dying has majority support in Orange County. There are no substantial differences by age groups.

Orange County Statewide Yes 57% 49% No 37 45 Don’t know 6 6

PROP. 164 (Term Limits)

Limiting the number of terms that California’s U.S. House and Senate delegations may serve has better than 2-to-1 backing in Orange County. Democrats are far less enamored of the proposal than are Republicans.

Orange County Statewide Yes 64% 61% No 27 28 Don’t know 9 11

O.C. Party Preference Democrats Republicans Yes 54% 73% No 35 18 Don’t know 11 9

PROP. 165 (Welfare, Budget Reform) Gov. Wilson’s plan to reduce welfare costs and change the budget process draws a scant majority in support in Orange County, widely separating voters along partisan lines.

Orange County Statewide Yes 51% 42% No 39 43 Don’t know 10 15

O.C. Party Preference Democrats Republicans Yes 31% 65% No 61 23 Don’t know 8 12

PROP. 166 (Health Care) Requiring all employers to provide health insurance for workers and their families falls short of majority support in Orange County. Statewide, more voters are undecided.

Orange County Statewide Yes 48% 49% No 43 35 Don’t know 9 16

O.C. Party Preference Democrats Republicans Yes 59% 37% No 33 52 Don’t know 8 11

PROP. 167 (State Taxes)

The proposal to increase taxes on top earners and corporations, repeal the 1991 sales tax increase and reinstate renters’ tax credits also falls short of a majority, with one in seven voters still undecided. Democrats are more likely to favor the proposition than are Republicans.

Orange County Statewide Yes 47% 42% No 39 44 Don’t know 14 14

O.C. Party Preference Democrats Republicans Yes 59% 34% No 26 52 Don’t know 15 14

Sources: Times Orange County Poll, Los Angeles Times Poll

HOW THIS POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain that the results are within 4% of what they would be if every adult registered voter was interviewed. For the subgroup of most likely voters, the margin of error is 5%.