THE TIMES POLL : Clinton Holding Lead Over Bush as Perot Gains

Heading into the final turn, Bill Clinton remains in command of the presidential race, a new Times Poll has found.

In the nationwide survey, Clinton leads with 43%, to 32% for President Bush and 19% for independent Ross Perot. Since the last Times Poll in early October, Perot has roughly doubled his support, while Clinton’s lead over Bush has slipped from 14 points to 11.

Among a smaller sample considered the most likely voters, the margin is essentially unchanged: Clinton leads with 44% to 34% for Bush and 18% for Perot.

Still, there are some worrisome signs for Clinton: The survey shows that voter doubts about his honesty are rising, and their overall assessment of him diminishing. The poll also suggests the possibility of more turbulence in these final days: Although only 5% of voters still describe themselves as undecided, another 16% say they’re not certain they will vote for the candidate they currently prefer.

The poll was conducted from last Saturday through Monday night, and thus only partially reflects the tempest of controversy that erupted after Perot said Sunday that he quit the race last summer because of reports the White House plotted dirty tricks against his family.

It is not yet clear what effect this squall will have on Perot’s campaign. But the poll shows that Perot’s support is significantly less firm than Bush’s or Clinton’s; just over one-third of current Perot backers say they could still vote for someone else, compared to just one in 10 of those supporting Clinton, and about one in eight of those with Bush.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,532 registered voters, including 1,126 likely voters; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for both groups.

Perot’s rise has not only narrowed Clinton’s lead but significantly changed the nature of Clinton’s coalition.

Through much of the campaign, Clinton has mustered a diverse anti-Bush vote that included many groups that have voted Republican over the last two decades. But Perot has peeled away significant numbers of those voters who had backed Clinton over Bush when those were the only two choices.

Since early October, for example, Perot’s support has increased by 16 percentage points, and Clinton’s has dropped 10 points, among Republicans who favor abortion rights. Over that period, Perot picked up 13 points among independents--who have given Republicans crucial support in the last six presidential elections--and Clinton lost six.

Among Democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan in 1984, Perot gained 14 points--and Clinton lost five. Perot jumped 12 points with voters earning $40,000 or more--and Clinton fell by 10 points. With Republicans, Perot is up 14, and Clinton down seven. With white Southerners Perot is up 13 points, Clinton down five.

Perot’s inroads have been much less significant among core Clinton voters: The Texan is winning just one in 10 Democrats, and only one in 11 blacks.

In that manner, Perot has made Clinton more dependent on a traditional Democratic vote. In the latest survey, 60% of Clinton’s vote came from partisan Democrats, up from 53% three weeks ago.

After the tumult of the past three days, the key question may be what happens if Perot’s support recedes. The answer may lie in the complex demography of that support. Perot is attracting his vote primarily from independent groups which lean toward the right but which are dissatified with Bush. For strategists in both camps, the question is whether those voters will drift to Clinton or revert to their Republican habits if they leave Perot.

The poll also illustrates the tension between voters’ doubts about Clinton’s character and their disappointment in Bush’s performance. It shows that Bush’s campaign attacks are bruising Clinton, but not enough so far to overcome the enormous dissatisfaction with the President’s own record and the country’s direction.

In the new survey, 52% say they have a positive view of Clinton and 42% a negative impression. That is a slight deterioration of his standing since the early October poll when he was viewed favorably by a 54-40 balance.

Somewhat more ominously for Clinton, the poll tracks a continued rise in the percentage of voters who doubt his integrity. Now, voters endorse his integrity by a 50-35 margin; that represents a doubling since August in the share of voters who believe Clinton lacks the honesty to serve as President.

Clinton still leads Bush and Perot when voters are asked which candidate would do the best job promoting economic prosperity and who cares most about the concerns of average Americans. But on both measures, Clinton’s advantage has diminished.

On the key question of which candidate would best promote economic prosperity, Clinton still leads with 38% to 32% for Perot and 24% for Bush; in early October the Democrat held a 17-point advantage on that issue. Moreover, on the broader measure of which party would do the better job promoting prosperity, the Democrats lead the GOP by only a narrow 43-35 margin. Historically, Democrats have won the White House only when holding a substantial advantage on that question.

Bush, meanwhile, retains a large lead over his two rivals on the question of which man would do the best job holding down taxes: 41% of those surveyed prefer Bush, 25% Clinton and 15% Perot.

Analysts say shifts in public sentiment on such measures often foreshadow a shift in voting. But these doubts about Clinton have not yet translated into increased support for Bush. That may be largely because while opinions about Clinton are somewhat soft, assessments of the President are hard, and largely unfavorable.

In the new survey, 35% of those polled approve of Bush’s performance in office, almost unchanged since early October. Four in five of those satisfied voters say they’ll support Bush next week. But of the remaining 61% who give Bush failing grades, just 4% say they will support him for a second term.

Increased attention to two scandals appear to be opening new ruts in the road for the President. Fully 47% of those surveyed say they are less likely to vote for the President because of reports “that the Bush Administration supplied aid to Saddam Hussein’s government in the . . . years prior to the Gulf War”; 48% say such accounts will have no effect.

Likewise, 38% say they are less likely to vote for Bush because of reports of his role in the Iran-Contra affair during the Ronald Reagan Administration; 57% say such allegations will not affect their vote.

Overall, voters give Bush higher marks than Clinton for integrity but the President faces significant doubts too: Voters endorse Bush’s honesty by a 61-33 count. Perot does well on that measure, with voters endorsing his honesty by 57-26.

And despite his attacks on Clinton for fudging his positions, Bush doesn’t score any better than Clinton when voters were asked to assess whether the candidates waffle on the issues. By a 64-29 count, voters say Bush waffles; Clinton’s 60-29 showing is essentially identical.

Nothing, though, is more damaging for Bush than the overwhelming dissatisfaction with the nation’s course, and the stubborn conviction that conditions will not improve in a second Bush Administration.

Just 23% of those polled say the nation is moving in the “right direction”; 70% still believe it is “off on the wrong track,” a small improvement from early October, but still representing an historic level of pessimism.

With unhappiness over the nation’s direction so widespread, historically, it has been extremely difficult for an incumbent President to win reelection: while three in four of those who consider the nation on the right track say they will vote for Bush, he wins support from less than one in five of those dissatisfied.

As damaging for Bush as the dissatisfaction with current conditions are the doubts that a second term would produce better days. Of those polled, 53% said it was unlikely conditions “in the nation would improve substantially” if Bush were reelected; just 45% thought an upturn was likely.

On the stump, Clinton often urges his audiences to vote their hopes, not their fears, and that appears to be happening. Though doubts about his personal qualities have measurably increased, 60% of voters believe conditions in the nation are likely to improve if he wins. And when asked which candidate could bring the change America needs, voters still prefer Clinton, by 43% to 27% for Bush and 25% for Perot.

But as those numbers suggest, Perot has emerged--at least until the latest controversy--as a formidable competitor to Clinton in the campaign’s final hours for the allegiance of those voters seeking change. In the survey, he’s drawing almost one-fourth of those voters dissatisfied with the nation’s direction--nearly triple his support among those who consider the country on the right track. His public image has reversed: Now 52% view him favorably and just 33% unfavorably. Two weeks ago, 66% of voters had an unfavorable opinion of Perot.

In some ways, voters see Perot as likely to bring even more basic change than Clinton. When asked whether Perot, if elected, would “bring fundamental change to the way government works” 71% said yes; just 17% thought he would govern in a “traditional manner.” For Clinton, the margin was considerably narrower: 51% thought he offered basic change, while 36% viewed him as essentially business as usual.

Perot still faces some formidable hurdles in expanding his base. Only 23% think he can win. Perot scores lowest of the three on being able to handle a crisis. Partly for those reasons, just a third of those who view him favorably now say they will vote for him.

Some other calculations to keep in mind during the last-minute jostling: Soft Clinton supporters are more favorable toward Perot than toward Bush. Soft Bush supporters like Perot much more than they like Clinton. And lightly committed Perot supporters are more favorable toward the President than his Democratic rival. Undecided voters--one in 20 overall--are most favorable toward Clinton.

With Week to Go, Clinton Up by 11

With a week to go before the presidential election, a Times Poll found the gap narrowing slightly between the three major candidates:

If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Oct. 26 Clinton: 43% Bush: 32% Perot: 19% *

Are you certain you are going to vote for that candidate, or is it possible that you might end up voting for somebody else?

Clinton Bush Perot Certain 89 87 64 Might pick someone else 10 12 34 Don’t know 1 1 2

*

The percentage of respondents who think the following about the candidate:

Clinton Bush Perot View him favorably 52% 45% 52% View him unfavorably 42% 52% 33% Know enough about him to make a choice 69% 91% 52% Don’t know enough about him 30% 8% 47% Represents your values 54% 52% 57% Doesn’t represent your values 34% 38% 26% Has necessary honesty and integrity 50% 61% 57% Doesn’t have necessary honesty and integrity 35% 33% 26% Trust him to handle crisis 50% 80% 41% Don’t trust him to handle crisis 34% 16% 34% Waffles on the issues 34% 64% 60% Doesn’t waffle on the issues 51% 29% 29% Think things will improve substantially if elected 60% 45% 51% Don’t think things will improve substantially if elected 36% 53% 42%

*

Do you think your U.S. representative in Congress deserves to be reelected? Yes: 47% No: 28% Don’t know: 24% *

Are you more or less likely to vote for an incumbent officeholder? More likely: 11% Less likely: 16% No effect: 66% Not sure/refused: 7% HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Times Poll interviewed 1,532 registered voters nationwide by telephone from Oct. 24-26. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the country. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of registered voters is plus or minus xx percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher.