Padres Study Leaving Hurst Unprotected : Baseball: Pitcher might be among players available for major league expansion draft.

The Padres could have traded starter Bruce Hurst to the Oakland Athletics last July in a package for slugger Jose Canseco.

In August, they could have traded Hurst to the Toronto Blue Jays for an assortment of young talent such as pitchers Mel Stottlemyre Jr. and David Wells.

The Padres rejected both deals without serious deliberation, concluding they could not afford to part with Hurst, the veteran of their pitching staff.

But in a hotel ballroom Nov. 17 in New York, Hurst might be joining the Colorado Rockies or Florida Marlins, without the Padres receiving a single player.

The Padres, according to sources in the organization, are strongly considering leaving Hurst off their 15-man protected list that will be submitted Monday to the league offices for the expansion draft.

“I’m not going to say whether we’re going to protect him or not,” said Joe McIlvaine, Padre general manager. “This is going to be the easiest draft in the world to second-guess, anyway.

“I don’t care if we lose the bat boy, Bluepper (the Padre mascot), or Bruce Hurst, the world will second-guess it.

“Teams have to weigh the present against the future. You just don’t know whether a team will take a veteran player with health questions and a big salary.”

Even though Hurst is one the most consistent pitchers in the major leagues, the Padres might be gambling that the Rockies and Marlins will pass on a 34-year-old pitcher who recently underwent rotator cuff surgery.

Hurst, the only active pitcher who has won at least 10 games in each of the last 10 seasons, underwent rotator cuff surgery in October to repair two small tears in his left shoulder. The Padres believe he’ll be fine by opening day, but considering he earns $2.75 million in 1993, the risk might be too great for an expansion franchise.

“It would be a financial gamble to anyone,” McIlvaine said, “especially after surgery.”

It was only recently that the Padres learned Hurst could be exposed to the draft. The commissioner’s office ruled that although Hurst has no-trade provisions to 12 teams in his contract, no expansion teams were included, leaving him available.

“We originally thought that anyone with any no-trade clauses would have to protected,” McIlvaine said, “but that was modified.”

The only player the Padres must place on the protected list is All-Star right fielder Tony Gwynn. Since Gwynn is a 10-and-5 player--10 years of major league service and at least five years with the same club--he can reject all trades or assignments.

This leaves the Padres with an array of intriguing decisions, considering that everyone else in the organization with at least three years of professional experience is exposed to the draft.

The only exceptions are players who signed at the age of 19 or older and have played fewer than three years in the minors or players who signed at 18 or younger and have fewer than four years in the minors. Several of the Padres’ top prospects, such as outfielder Ray McDavid, infielder Billy Hall and pitcher Joey Hamilton, fall into this group and can not be exposed to the draft.

Still, the Padres realize the damages can be quite devastating if they lose a prospect who emerges turns into an star with another organization. Do the names Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Baerga, Shane Mack and Dave Hollins ring a bell?

McIlvaine required everyone at Padre organizational meetings to submit their own 15-player list last month, trying to draw as many viewpoints as possible in helping determine what three players they will lose.

The conclusive list will be a mystery to all those outside the organization. The final list will be revealed only to the Rockies and Marlins, who have pledged silence. The fine for breaking the vow and revealing a team’s expansion list is $500,000, according to one league official.

“I hope the names never come out,” McIlvaine said, “That’s not fair to players and everyone else who’ll jump to conclusions. This isn’t all about protecting the best players in the organization, but about strategy.

“You’ve got to know who might be interested in your players, and what kind of players that might draw their interest.

“Really, the first 12 on our list isn’t that hard. It’s the last three that drew a lot of debate.”

The Padres’ list, according to sources close to the situation, is expected to closely resemble this:

Infielders: First baseman Fred McGriff, third baseman Gary Sheffield, shortstop Luis Lopez.

Outfielders: Right fielder Tony Gwynn, center fielder Darrin Jackson, center fielder Darrell Sherman.

Catcher: Dan Walters.

Pitchers: Starters Andy Benes, Greg Harris, Frank Seminara, Tim Worrell, Wally Whitehurst and Scott Sanders; and relievers Tim Scott and Jeremy Hernandez.

The most alluring players the Padres will leave available in the draft are expected to be Hurst; left fielder Jerald Clark; infielders Guillermo Velasquez, Kurt Stillwell and Tim Teufel; pitchers Jose Melendez, Rich Rodriguez, Lance Painter and Terry Bross; and catcher Tom Lampkin.

Once a club loses one player in the expansion draft, it is allowed to protect three additional players. The same will apply after a club loses the second of three players.

Depending on whom the Padres lose in each of the first two rounds, their call-back strategy may look like this:

First call-backs: Clark, Rodriguez and Velasquez.

Second call-backs: Melendez, shortstop Ray Holbert and Painter.

Of course, the Padres could make adjustments. There’s strong sentiment in the organization to protect reliever Rich Rodriguez. If they lose him, they will be without a left-hander in the bullpen.

The Padres also might be inclined to protect first baseman Guillermo Velasquez. Not only could Velasquez be invaluable off the bench, but it would allow the Padres the luxury of shopping Fred McGriff during the winter meetings.

One of the most interesting debates was whether to protect Clark, their starting left fielder. Clark, 29, remains an enigma. Is he the outfielder who batted .192 with four homers and 15 RBIs until the waning days of June? Or is he the outfielder who batted .283 the rest of the season with eight homers and 43 RBIs?

The Padres believe that his age and the fact he’s eligible for salary arbitration will allow them to risk losing him in the draft. Besides, Sherman might be ready to supplant Clark.

Sherman batted .286 for triple-A Las Vegas last season with 22 homers and 26 stolen bases. The Padres are grooming him to become their leadoff hitter, and if Clark is gone in the expansion draft, or Jackson is traded, Sherman could be in the opening day lineup.

“I think he’ll be in the majors next year,” said Padre Manager Jim Riggleman, who managed Sherman at Las Vegas this past season. “The thing he can do is go get the ball as well as anybody. He’s definitely in the class of Darrin Jackson defensively, but whether or not he can hit in the majors remains to be seen.”

The plans for Sherman, as well as the blueprint for the Padres’ 1993 team, will be much more clear once the Padres know the identity of the three players they’ll lose. They also will walk away from the draft $12 million richer, the fees Colorado and Florida will be paying for the privilege of joining the major leagues.

“It’s not going to be a fun day for anyone but the Rockies and Marlins,” McIlvaine said. “You lose three players, but you walk home with $12 million.

“If you give a general manager a choice of $12 million or keeping three players, he’ll take the players. If you give any owner the choice, he’ll take the money.”

What will happen to that $12 million the Padres will receive?

Will they use it to lure free agents? Will they sign Sheffield to a long-term contract?

Sorry, ownership says the money will be used to help repay a $20-million loan when they purchased the team in 1989.

Possible Padre Expansion List

No. Player Pos 1. Tony Gwynn RF 2. Gary Sheffield 3B 3. Fred McGriff 1B 4. Andy Benes P 5. Greg Harris P 6. Darrin Jackson CF 7. Dan Walters C 8. Frank Seminara P 9. Tim Worrell P 10. Darrell Sherman OF 11. Wally Whitehurst P 12. Luis Lopez SS 13. Scott Sanders P 14. Tim Scott P 15. Jeremy Hernandez P

Player & Comment 1. Tony Gwynn: If he wasn’t a 10-and-5 man, he might be the next out the door. 2. Gary Sheffield: He stays for another year until the Padres decide whether they can afford him. 3. Fred McGriff: Their most valuable commodity. 4. Andy Benes: Remains the Padres’ future. 5. Greg Harris: Will be on the block, but even with $2 million salary too valuable to lose to expansion. 6. Darrin Jackson: Won the heart of the Padre ownership with his inspired play. 7. Dan Walters: Might be their only major league catcher returning. 8. Frank Seminara: Scouts still can’t believe his success with limited ability. 9. Tim Worrell: Could be in the Padre rotation before season ends. 10. Darrell Sherman: Don’t be surprised if he’s the Padres’ opening day left fielder or center fielder. 11. Wally Whitehurst: After trading Tony Fernandez for him, Padres would look like idiots if they lost him in draft. 12. Luis Lopez: With Fernandez gone, he’s the best shortstop in organization. 13. Scott Sanders: Very impressive in instructional league, and could be in rotation by All-Star break. 14. Tim Scott: Could be the 1993 bullpen stopper. 15. Jeremy Hernandez: Has the best arm in the organization with a 94 m.p.h. fastball.