Profile : Savimbi: A Rebel Discredited : It’s too early to count him out of Angola’s future. But the guerrilla leader’s refusal to accept his election defeat has demolished his integrity.

Jonas Savimbi has dismayed his loyal friends in America and South Africa. Most of his brightest lieutenants are dead. And, in what must be the most painful blow of all, legions of his compatriots in Angola now doubt his commitment to democracy.

Savimbi spent more than half his life in the African bush, fighting for democratic elections. But when those elections were held in September, he refused to accept defeat and destroyed Angola’s fragile peace.

Now, as Angola tries to put itself back together after five weeks of uncertainty and bloodshed, this guerrilla philosopher, once one of Africa’s brightest lights, has lost the respect of many in Angola, and around the world. He stands discredited. And today his word is worth almost nothing.

“He blew it,” said a senior Western diplomat and longtime Savimbi ally. “I can’t see how he will ever recover from this. It’s actually a great tragedy.”

It’s too early to count Savimbi out of Angola’s future. He remains an important--and some say dangerous--force in the country with his guerrilla troops and his many rural supporters. He will have to be accommodated.

But his dream of ruling Angola has surely died--and, along with it, his worldwide reputation as a defender of democracy.

President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’ ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA, defeated Savimbi’s rebel movement, 53.7% to 34.1%. If Parliament is ever seated, Savimbi’s National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, or UNITA, will be the official opposition.

The presidency is still up for grabs. Dos Santos outpolled Savimbi, 49.6% to 40.1%, but fell short of the majority needed for outright victory. A runoff is expected sometime next year.

Had Savimbi gracefully accepted defeat, he might have stood a good chance of defeating Dos Santos. But instead he claimed widespread election fraud, yanked his troops out of the country’s new joint army and frightened the country by resuming military maneuvers.

Political analysts say the odds are against him now. Savimbi’s campaign funds have been depleted, and his allies in the West, like many in his own country, no longer trust him.

Savimbi, holed up in his home base in Huambo, in the central highlands 300 miles from the capital, Luanda, sent word last week that he was prepared to meet Dos Santos and talk about the future.

But the damage to Savimbi and his powerful political movement already has been done. A government crackdown on UNITA in Luanda 10 days ago, sharply criticized by UNITA officials, apparently got out of hand. Savimbi’s vice president and one of his leading generals, in Luanda for peace talks with the government, were among the estimated 1,200 killed.

“My best negotiators have been gunned down,” he lamented in a telephone conversation with South Africa’s foreign minister, Roelof F. (Pik) Botha, last week. But, Savimbi said, “We are men and we must put this behind us and move forward. The country means more to me, peace means more to me” than retribution, he added.

Savimbi’s downfall began months before the election. Just about everyone in Angola, from the candidates to the voters to the diplomats, figured the race would be close. Everyone, that is, except Savimbi.

For months, Savimbi had been brimming with easy--some said delusional--confidence. This was his destiny, the goal of his 16-year bush war, he said. Angola was ready for democracy and he was the obvious choice to lead it.

“I don’t see how, if the elections are free and fair, that we can lose,” he told The Times just days before the voting.

But Savimbi’s confidence worried his biggest allies, the United States and South Africa. They were concerned that Savimbi wouldn’t be able to accept defeat.

They knew this 58-year-old guerrilla leader better than anyone. They had helped pay for his civil war against the then-Marxist government. They had embraced him as one of Africa’s most courageous “freedom fighters.”

And, yet, they weren’t sure they could trust him. He had always been a mystery.

Savimbi certainly appeared to have changed. His camouflage fatigues and side arm were gone, replaced by an eggshell blue safari suit. And, in meeting after meeting with diplomats, he patiently repeated his commitment to abide by the will of Angolans.

But many doubted Savimbi’s ability to adjust to true democracy.

UNITA was far from a democratic organization. In fact, it had become a Savimbi personality cult. And strong allegations surfaced earlier this year that Savimbi had ordered dozens of his own deputies, including wives and children, killed over the years.

“Even those who know him best don’t know him,” said a Western diplomat. “The man has always been an enigma. We could never really fathom the guy. At times, he did the most unexpected and irrational things.”

When the voters spoke, the worst fears came true.

American and South African diplomats raced to Huambo and urged Savimbi to be a statesman--accept UNITA’s election defeat, become the democratic opposition in a new Angolan parliament and contest the runoff for president.

But, for several weeks, Savimbi refused to believe that Angolans had voted against him. It had to be fraud, he said.

Finally, he grudgingly agreed to talks with the government. But two Savimbi-Dos Santos meetings fell through and, at the same time, Savimbi’s rebel movement began taking over towns in the provinces. On Oct. 31, the government cracked down on Savimbi’s supporters in Luanda, setting off a blood bath.

Now, Savimbi says he is ready to talk peace with Dos Santos, secure the release of prisoners from both sides and negotiate the second presidential election. UNITA wants more U.N. observers next time, and it also is demanding an interim government of national unity. But Dos Santos’ party, having won the election, is unlikely to agree to relinquish power to an interim government.

The talks themselves will help ease tension in war-torn Angola. But many in the country have good reason to doubt Savimbi’s sincerity.

“You can’t believe a word he says--not a syllable,” said Fred Bridgland, a British journalist based in South Africa.

Bridgland’s 1986 book on Savimbi, a definitive biography of the man and his movement, painted the guerrilla leader as a charming, intelligent and courageous man fighting a noble cause. Bridgland now believes Savimbi has become a ruthless, paranoid demagogue. And the author says Savimbi has brutally murdered many of his closest associates and their families, including the highly respected UNITA negotiator Tito Chingungi.

“He’s clinically mad,” Bridgland said in an interview. “He’s become a Macbethian figure. What I didn’t realize until 1988 was that he had come to believe his own messianic propaganda.”

In fact, Savimbi had been one of Africa’s most exceptional revolutionary figures. Fluent in English, Portuguese, French and tribal tongues, he studied political science in Switzerland and guerrilla war under Mao Tse-tung in China.

Savimbi spent the next three decades leading revolutions, first against the Portuguese colonialists in Angola and, after independence in 1975, against the Marxist black government that seized power with the help of Cuba and the Soviet Union.

In his battle against the Marxist government and the 50,000 Cuban troops supporting it, Savimbi became the darling of American conservatives and others hoping to halt Soviet expansionism in Africa. He received tens of millions of dollars in covert aid from the CIA as well as troops and weapons from South Africa.

But, no matter who his backers, Savimbi remained in firm control of UNITA and its highly disciplined army, which had wide support in rural Angola. He also won the support of many Western powers for his stated commitment to multi-party democracy and free-market capitalism.

With the end of the Cold War, the United States, South Africa, Cuba and the former Soviet Union guided Angola toward a peace accord. In May, 1991, Savimbi and Dos Santos agreed to a cease-fire and the country’s first multi-party elections.

UNITA’s political campaign was dogged by bad luck, miscalculations and ugly revelations.

Dos Santos expropriated UNITA’s platform, shedding Marxist ideology and embracing democracy and capitalism. Dos Santos’ weakness was an economy severely damaged by years of state control and corruption. But he appealed to voters with his slogan, “O Futuro Tranquilo”--A Tranquil Future.

Angolans were weary of the long war, and they wanted a fresh start. But they had to weigh their desire to oust an ineffective government against Savimbi’s reputation for ruthlessness.

More than 90% of Angola’s 5 million registered voters cast ballots on Sept. 29-30.

In urging Savimbi to accept defeat, diplomats pointed out the difficulties Dos Santos would have in leading the country out of its economic misery. They argued that UNITA would be in a good position, in four years, to unseat the government.

But Savimbi, ever the enigma, balked.

And when his troops began military movements, the time for statesmanship had passed.

“He had major problems coming to terms with the defeat--major problems,” said a Western diplomat. “And he’s scared a lot of people in Angola.”

Biography Name: Jonas Malheiro Savimbi Title: Leader of UNITA, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, Age: 59 Personal: Married. Father of four. Studied medicine, politics and law at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, and guerrilla warfare in China. Quote: “If I win (the election), I stay. If I lose, I stay. No one will ever expel me from this country. I love this country.”