NEWS ANALYSIS : For Mexico, Free Trade Worries : Politics: With Clinton victory, Mexicans express nervousness over the future of pact with the United States and Canada.

Under the headline “Charge Ahead,” President-elect Bill Clinton looks skeptically over his shoulder at Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari in a cartoon in last week’s Proceso newsmagazine. “My great soul mate!” Salinas shouts with open arms and a copy of the North American Free Trade Agreement in hand.

In another cartoon in the daily newspaper El Universal, Mexican Commerce Secretary Jaime Jose Serra-Puche drives a “free trade” car on a winding road drawn through Clinton’s head. “Dangerous Curves,” reads the headline.

Despite Clinton’s declared support for free trade, the cartoons illustrate Mexican nervousness over the future of the agreement with the United States and Canada under a new Democratic Administration and Congress.

In part, the uncertainty stems from the traditional view that Democrats are more protectionist than are laissez-faire Republicans. But it also reflects a perception here that Salinas was too close to President Bush and, underestimating the possibility of a Clinton victory, ignored the Democrats.

Salinas has been criticized for appearing to have campaigned for Bush by attending major league baseball’s All-Star Game with him in San Diego last July and meeting again with him in San Antonio in the final weeks of the U.S. presidential race to initial the finished agreement with Bush and Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.

On election night, the Mexican government moved quickly to dispel the view that it had sided with the losers, publicizing Salinas’ congratulatory message to Clinton as soon as Bush conceded. The next day, Serra-Puche held a news conference to say that the free trade agreement would be unaffected by the change in U.S. administrations. A subsequent telephone call between Clinton and Salinas also was widely touted. While all of this was meant to calm investors’ fears, the government appeared to be engaged in heavy damage control.

In fact, neither Salinas’ aides nor U.S. experts in U.S.-Mexican relations expect Clinton to make major policy changes regarding Mexico. But privately, Mexican officials concede that shifts in emphasis could cause delays in passage and implementation of the accord and, possibly, friction between the two countries.

Democracy and human rights are likely to be stressed in the Democrats’ Latin American policy, as they were under President Jimmy Carter. But whether these will be central issues is unclear. Latin America has more democratic leaders and lower levels of repression today than during Carter’s presidency; more countries are focusing on economic restructuring and trade.

Some opponents of Mexico’s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) would like to see the U.S. government link passage of the free trade agreement to improvements in Mexico’s record. In particular, opposition parties and citizens groups are pushing for free and fair elections.

“The question we all have is how a Democratic Administration is going to relate to the question of democracy in Mexico,” said Sergio Aguayo, president of the Mexican Academy of Human Rights and a member of the Citizens Movement for Democracy. “What is in play is the speed of the transition to democracy. The external factor is going to affect that.”

Mexican officials warn that linking internal political issues to free trade would be “unacceptable” and would infringe on Mexican sovereignty.

“The government has made clear its willingness to continue advancing in political development, but at the rhythm which Mexican reality allows,” said a government official who asked not to be identified. “It is in no one’s interest to risk not only bilateral relations but Mexican stability.”

Clinton has not addressed the issue of democracy in Mexico. He said in a speech last month that he would endorse the free trade agreement if it is accompanied by additional accords and legislation to protect the environment, jobs and the U.S. economy.

The President-elect wants latitude to raise trade barriers to protect the economy if the agreement leads to unexpected surges in imports. He also wants tri-national watchdog commissions to enforce compliance with environmental and labor standards and a U.S. job-training program for workers displaced by the accord.

Historically, Mexican enforcement on labor standards and environmental issues has been lax, although officials claim to be moving forward.

“Gov. Clinton wants to address the issues of pollution and labor standards in Mexico, and we’ve said that we are willing to do that. We are already addressing them bilaterally and trilaterally,” said Andres Rozental, Mexico’s deputy foreign secretary for North American affairs.

Some experts on U.S.-Mexican affairs believe that Clinton, with his conditions, has a better chance of winning congressional approval for the free trade agreement than Bush would have had. Mexicans, meanwhile, are debating whether they will receive the same degree of attention from Clinton, who vowed during his campaign to dedicate himself to domestic issues.

Much has been made in the Mexican press of the good personal relations between Salinas and Bush, who met nine times in four years--a record for U.S. and Mexican presidents. Politics are very personalized in Mexico, and some observers are concerned about the loss of the Bush-Salinas ties. Others say that bilateral relations have matured and interests have converged enough to lessen the importance of personalities.

One area where Mexico would like to see some changes in foreign policy under the Democrats is in Washington’s insistence that it may apply U.S. laws abroad. Mexico is seeking the return of Dr. Humberto Alvarez Machain, a Mexican gynecologist kidnaped from Guadalajara in 1989 in a raid arranged and paid for by U.S. operatives.

Alvarez Machain is awaiting trial in Los Angeles in connection with the 1985 kidnaping and murder of U.S. drug agent Enrique S. Camarena. In June, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the government’s action, ruling that a criminal suspect kidnaped by the United States from a foreign country over that country’s objection may be put on trial in the United States.

“We continue to insist on (Alvarez Machain’s) return as the only way to repair a rather serious rift on that particular issue,” Rozental said. “We would hope there would be a change on the principle of the extraterritorial application of laws.”

The Mexican government, like other Latin American countries, views the Torricelli bill against trade with Cuba as another effort to apply U.S. laws beyond its borders. The bill, sponsored by Rep. Robert G. Torricelli (D-N.J.), penalizes foreign-based subsidiaries of U.S. corporations for trading with Cuba and discourages U.S. allies from doing business there by barring from U.S. ports for six months any ships that have docked in Cuban harbors.