County Home Sales Decrease 15.7% in 1992, Report Shows : Real estate: Stabilized average selling price may discourage potential buyers who continue to wait for further drops.

Home sales in Orange County for this year’s first 10 months were down a dismal 15.7% from a year earlier, according to the latest report from TRW-Redi Property Data Services in Riverside.

That word is likely to make thousands of realty agents, home builders and home sellers wonder just what it is they should be thankful for this holiday period. The same report also said the average selling price of an Orange County home remained virtually unchanged at $245,128--which will generate mixed reviews.

For builders and sellers who have watched prices fall by 20% over the past two years, the stabilized prices are welcome, but they are likely to discourage potential buyers who continue to wait for further drops in real estate values before making a home purchase.

The decline in Orange County home sales was second-worst in the six-county Southland area covered by TRW-Redi. The company’s data covers new and resale homes and condominiums.

Los Angeles County’s 15.9% drop was at the bottom of the list, while a 5.8% decline in San Diego County was the best performance of the six.

There are signs, however, that some life remains in the Orange County market.

The first is contained in a separate TRW-Redi report Monday that 1,841 pieces of residential and commercial properties were foreclosed on in Orange County during the first eight months of the year. While higher than the tally for years past, the 1992 foreclosure rate makes Orange County the healthiest in the Southland with only 2.8 parcels of property in foreclosure out of every 1,000 parcels. The six-county average is 4 foreclosures per 1,000, with San Bernardino County leading at 6.1 per 1,000.

A second sign comes in a tally of shoppers visiting new housing developments.

A compilation of data from San Diego-based Hanley Report’s Weekly Traffic Monitor shows that traffic in Orange County projects has barely declined this year, dropping only 4% through October with 643,476 shoppers logged. By comparison, foot traffic at model complexes in San Bernardino County--the next best area in Southern California--plummeted 21%, and the count in both Los Angeles and Riverside counties, which tied for worst place, was off 26%.

Greater traffic at Orange County sales offices didn’t translate to more sales--TRW-Redi counted only 4,432 new homes closing escrow through October, down 15% from 5,110 in the first 10 months of 1991.

But it does suggest that demand is there and that sales will pick up quickly once consumer confidence in the economy is restored and people start making major purchases again, said Bonnie Benton, a Laguna Niguel analyst who interprets the data.

“I attribute Orange County’s higher traffic count to living in the land of the mouse,” Benton said in a reference to the make-believe world of Disneyland.

“There is still a feeling out there that nothing really bad can happen in Orange County. There are a lot of very hopeful people, and they are the ones who continue looking. . . . People are shopping for bargains, though, so they won’t buy until they are sure prices have hit bottom,” she said.

That finally might be happening, says TRW-Redi analyst Nima Nattagh.

In four of the six counties the average price of previously owned homes actually rose in October when compared to October, 1991, prices. “That’s the first time we have seen that happen with so many of the counties,” Nattagh said, noting that only in Los Angeles and Ventura counties did the average resale price drop last month.

However, the pace of Orange County home resales this year has not been encouraging--the 20,822 closed escrows was down 15.9% from the first 10 months of 1991--the region’s biggest drop.

But October’s average price for a previously owned residence was $243,285, up 2.7% from the year-earlier $236,888, and remains higher than in any past October except the peak housing boom years of 1990 and 1989, when the record high October resale average of $259,985 was set.

In San Bernardino County, the average resale price rose 6.2% in October; prices were up 5.6% in San Diego County and 4.6% in Riverside County, TRW-Redi reported.

“I am very cautious about using one month’s figures to call a trend,” said Nattagh, “but this was so consistent it probably means that the decline in existing home prices has pretty much bottomed out.”

For the six-county region, the average October resale price of $212,390 was up 0.5% from a year earlier.

In the new-home market, the average price in the region dropped 5.1% in October to $201,455 from the year-earlier $212,250. In Orange County, the decline was 8.5%, to $253,293 from $276,712.

New home sales in Orange County totaled 4,342 for the first 10 months, down from 5,110 a year earlier.

Sluggish Home Market in the Southland

The number of new and existing homes sold in Southern California fell 14% through October this year compared to the same 10-month period in 1991. Despite the decline, prices remained fairly stable. The average selling price in the six-county area was $212,390 in October, up less than 1% from a year earlier. The picture in Orange County was mixed: Sales were down, as was the average price of a new home. The average resale price increased. Orange County Average Price:

Oct. ’91 Oct. ’92 Change New Homes $276,712 $253,293 -8.5% Resales $236,888 $243,285 +2.7%

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Jan.-Oct. ’91 Jan.-Oct. ’92 Change New Homes Sold 5,110 4,342 -15.0% Homes Resold 24,775 20,822 -15.9%

*Los Angeles County Average Price:

Oct. ’91 Oct. ’92 Change New Homes $223,925 $209,861 -6.3% Resales $245,693 $237,447 -3.3%

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Jan.-Oct. ’91 Jan.-Oct. ’92 Change New Homes Sold 7,069 5,202 -26.4% Homes Resold 66,240 56,349 -14.9%

*San Diego County Average Price:

Oct. ’91 Oct. ’92 Change New Homes $224,974 $218,360 - 3.0% Resales $195,614 $206,620 + 5.6%

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Jan.-Oct. ’91 Jan.-Oct. ’92 Change New Homes Sold 3,970 3,861 - 1.1% Homes Resold 19,979 18,700 - 6.4%

*San Bernardino County Average Price:

Oct. ’91 Oct. ’92 Change New Homes $166,442 $158,649 - 4.7% Resales $126,418 $134,246 + 6.2%

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Jan.-Oct. ’91 Jan.-Oct. ’92 Change New Homes Sold 4,856 4,023 -17.1% Homes Resold 16,745 14,688 -12.2%

*Riverside County Average Price:

Oct. ’91 Oct. ’92 Change New Homes $178,116 $154,095 -13.5% Resales $144,264 $150,867 + 4.6%

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Jan.-Oct. ’91 Jan.-Oct. ’92 Change New Homes Sold 5,870 4,910 -16.3% Homes Resold 14,454 12,468 -13.7%

*Ventura County Average Price:

Oct. ’91 Oct. ’92 Change New Homes $277,666 $281,679 + 1.4% Resales $233,301 $227,220 - 2.6%

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Jan.-Oct. ’91 Jan.-Oct. ’92 Change New Homes Sold 1,094 789 -27.8% Homes Resold 6,335 6,132 - 3.2%

Source: TRW REDI Property Data