Playing It Cool on What’s Hot : Merchants Say Traditional Gifts Will Be the Big Sellers
Neon bicycle pants and toy action figures of Beetlejuice: Retailers expected those past holiday season products to be hot; consumers decided they were not.
Undaunted, the nation’s merchants and retail analysts are again predicting hot-selling items for this holiday season. But this year, prognosticators are giving the nod to tried-and-true gift items instead of new products.
Early sales indicate that retailers will have an easy time selling well-established gift items, but will have difficulty persuading shoppers to stray from the beaten path. Industry analysts say this is because consumers are still skittish about the economy.
That caution has been reflected in the buying patterns of the past two years. G.I. Joe walloped Beetlejuice in holiday season retail wars, and consumers considered Barbie far more fashionable than upstart competitors such as doll versions of models Christie Brinkley and Cheryl Tiegs.
On the “adult toy” front, surveys indicate that consumers are still eager for electronic gadgets such as camcorders and CD players.
However, more shoppers will also use their holiday dollars to purchase practical items such as clothing and kitchen ware, according to industry observers.
“When the economy is tight, people cut back on impulse purchases and tend to purchase staples such as clothing,” said John Golisch, chief retail consultant in Southern California for business services giant Arthur Andersen.
Although shoppers are expected to be cautious, they might spend a little more this year. The National Retail Federation predicts the best Christmas selling season in three years, with up to a 5% increase in sales forecast for the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period.
Old favorites such as Barbie and Troll dolls are among the toys expected to set the sales pace, according to a survey of major retailers conducted by the retail federation. And many retailers expect shoppers to continue to shell out for toy versions of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles film characters.
Indeed, all kinds of tie-in products associated with television or film characters are expected to generate big sales late this year.
The Broadway department stores said children’s jogging suits bearing the images of cartoon characters are strong sellers. And the Broadway reports animated sales for a variety of products--including sweaters, towels and backpacks--marketed in association with the Disney film “Beauty and the Beast.”
Shoppers will also be eyeing home videos of popular films, the retail federation said. Sears--which is launching its holiday television advertising campaign by sponsoring a broadcast of the movie “E.T.--The Extra-Terrestrial” tonight--will also try to lure shoppers by selling a home video version of that popular Steven Spielberg film.
However, if Santa is listening to the good boys and girls in the United States, he’ll be delivering more video games than video features. According to the North Pole Poll by the Gallup Organization, more children would like to receive a video game system this year than a prerecorded videotape.
This national poll by Gallup--commissioned by Nintendo of America Inc.--was based on the telephone comments this month of about 500 children ages 7 to 16. When given a choice of nine toy categories (video game system,video game, doll, action figure, remote-control vehicle, water gun, board game, prerecorded videotape, and portable video game), 63% of the children said they would “really want to get” a video game system. This was followed by 54% who cited a portable video game and 43% who wanted video software.
Remote-control vehicles ranked fourth in popularity, just ahead of prerecorded videotapes (29%). Another 28% said they want a water gun, and 21% hope for board games.
As for the toys of choice of adults, consumer electronics that provide entertainment will be the big sellers, said Matthew Howard, senior vice president of marketing at Sears.
“We expect consumers to be very interested in big-screen televisions, videocassette recorders and television-audio system combinations,” he said.
Howard said electronics with more practical applications--such as personal computers and cordless telephones--will also be popular. And household goods--especially appliances that create juice from fruit and vegetables and small bread-baking devices--will be hot kitchen gifts, executives at Sears and the Broadway stores predict.
“I think we will continue to see a focus on needs instead of wants,” Howard said. “For example, we’ll also see more interest in apparel.”
Angela de Joseph, a consultant to retailers and consumers and head of the Toluca Lake-based Fashion Sense, is also among those expecting shoppers to spend a greater proportion of their holiday gift dollars on apparel.
“People want practical gifts because they don’t want to have to buy all those necessities for themselves,” she said. “However, people want practical items that are versatile and can be used different ways.”
For that reason, De Joseph expects sales of fashion accessories such as belts, jewelry, hats and scarves to be strong because they can be worn with different outfits. Also, some belts have exchangeable buckles and some scarves have different patterns on each side, giving the buyer options, she said.
As for other popular apparel items, retailers expect women’s clothing with beads and sequins to be popular this year. As for men, shirts with French cuffs, neckwear and sweaters will attract buyers, merchants predict. And baggy or loose-fitting clothes will be the look for younger adults and teen-agers, according to retailers.
Some garments on the “hot” list are not designed to serve the utilitarian purpose suggested. For example, the silk jogging suit for women.
“People aren’t going to put sweat stains on a silk garment,” said Pat Turner, a spokeswoman for Carter Hawley Hale Stores, parent of the Broadway chain. “The producers really designed this suit for leisure at home.”
The North Pole Poll
The Gallup Organization conducted a survey in November to determine how children would rank a selected list of toy categories to receive for Christmas. The Gallup North Pole Poll--commissioned by Nintendo of America Inc.--questioned about 500 children (about half boys and half girls) ages 7 to 16 across the continental United States.
“Of the following toy categories (video game system; video game; doll; action figure; remote-control vehicle; water gun; board game; prerecorded videotape; portable video game), what would you really want to get for Christmas?” Board game: 21% Water gun: 28% Prerecorded videotape: 29% Remote-control vehicle: 31% Video game: 43% Portable video game: 54% Video game system: 63% Source: Gallup Poll
