Despite Signs of Cheer, It’s a Wary Christmas Season : Retail: Consumer activity jumped in the first nine months of ‘92, but merchants worry about momentum.
A government survey of San Diego County retailers indicates a significant jump in consumer activity over the first nine months of 1992, but merchants Monday spoke cautiously about whether the buying momentum will carry over into the Christmas shopping season. They described the results of the shopping season’s first weekend as mixed.
According to a monthly survey of county retail and wholesale businesses by the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales for the first nine months of the year increased 7.9% over the same period in 1991. September was a particularly strong month, with sales up 15.6% from the previous September.
The survey encompasses a broad range of businesses--car dealers and furniture stores to membership warehouses and clothiers--and benefited this year from the fact that last year’s retail sales were seriously hurt by the Persian Gulf War and the absence for several months of 80,000 uniformed military personnel from county stores and showrooms.
Perhaps because of San Diego County’s high concentration of military personnel, the September and year-to-date retail sales growth outpaced the state’s and nation’s. California’s retail sales were up only 1% for September and 1% for the first nine months. U.S. retail sales were up 7% for September and 4.2% for the nine months ended September.
But mall and store managers interviewed Monday reported mixed results during the first full weekend of the Christmas shopping season. Each manager interviewed said that foot traffic was heavy but that sales dropped off Saturday and Sunday from Friday’s encouragingly high levels.
Shirley Schnitz, manager of the Target store on Sports Arena Boulevard, echoed other managers’ observations, saying that “consumers this year seem to be very cautious in what they are buying, and they seem to be shopping the sales and using circulars.”
Last weekend’s traffic was “generally within comparison with last year,” Schnitz said. “There wasn’t a real big jump (in sales), but not a big decline either.”
Craig Pettitt, general manager of 150-store Horton Plaza downtown, said more cars filled the mall’s parking lot Friday than on the same day last year, before tapering off somewhat Saturday and Sunday.
“I’m getting mixed reactions from merchants,” Pettitt said. “Foot traffic was there, but customers are certainly being more careful about their selections. So we are hoping that that Saturday and Sunday traffic turns into sales later on in the shopping season.”
Pettitt said that, based on “a great September--we were up 8%”--and a similar sales increase mall-wide in October, he is expecting Horton Plaza to turn in a somewhat better Christmas season than the inaugural weekend may indicate.
“We’re always looking for better things, so we’re just opening that sales spread out more over the season,” he said. “I still feel that the consumer is much more optimistic than last year. If that hasn’t turned into sales yet, it may before the season’s out.”
North County Fair General Manager Brian Jenkins said foot traffic at his mall was definitely up, based on two reliable barometers: “impulse gifts and food sales.” But traffic tapered off somewhat Saturday and Sunday, and various merchants reported a “mixed bag on sales. . . . About two-thirds of the 35 to 40 stores we polled did better than last year,” Jenkins said.
“We won’t really know until the last 10 days of the season leading up to Christmas how we did,” he said. “That’s when the push begins. Most people shop in those last 10 days.”
Retail Recovering? Retail sales, which in San Diego have improved strongly in 1992 over last year, registered a 16% increase in the month of September compared with the same month in 1991. For the year to date, retail sales are 7.9% ahead of last year. San Diego Metropolitan Statistical Area (in billions of dollars) 1991 Jan $1.260 Feb 1.203 March 1.440 April 1.395 May 1.437 June 1.423 July 1.450 Aug 1.450 Sept. 1.330 Oct. 1.377 Nov 1.402 Dec. 1.738 1992 Jan. $1.265 Feb. 1.298 March 1.429 April 1.498 May 1.542 June 1.539 July 1.645 Aug. 1.611 Sept. 1.537 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
