Quake Area Folks Complacent to a Fault : New Madrid: U.S. Geological Survey predicts a high likelihood of a major jolt in the region within the next decade.

One of the nation’s most powerful earthquake faults runs into southern Illinois, but officials fear that residents have let their guard down and won’t be ready if a major quake should strike.

Two years ago, a private climatologist, Iben Browning, projected a 50-50 chance for a major quake along the New Madrid fault sometime around Dec. 3--but nothing happened, that time.

“I think the general public has become a great deal more complacent,” said Thomas Zimmerman, planning chief for the Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency. “I wish the barometer was reading more positively in terms of public interest in earthquakes.”

The New Madrid zone stretches from Marked Tree, Ark., 120 miles northeast through New Madrid, Mo., to Cairo, Ill., about 40 miles from Murphysboro.

In 1811-12, when the region was sparsely populated, the fault produced several earthquakes estimated from 7.5 to larger than 8 in intensity.

The quakes killed several dozen people, toppled cabins, snapped trees, temporarily reversed the flow of the Mississippi River and reportedly cracked pavement and rang church bells as far away as Washington, D.C., New York and Boston.

The U.S. Geological Survey predicts a 40% to 63% chance of an earthquake measuring 6 in the region within the next decade. A quake of that magnitude is capable of causing severe damage.

A moderate quake shook the area in September, 1990, but caused no significant damage.

Murphysboro, a community of about 10,000, is expected to have major problems if a major quake strikes.

Because the city is surrounded by bridges, Mayor David McDowell fears that it could be cut off from rescue crews for several days.

Also, like many old towns in the area, it has masonry and concrete buildings that aren’t reinforced--the kind of structures most susceptible to earthquake damage.

Murphysboro cannot afford to warehouse food and medical supplies, said Bill Crawshaw, the town’s emergency services director. And he worries that residents long ago broke into their earthquake stashes and would not have supplies to last until relief arrives.

“We can care for ourselves if we’re healthy and not injured,” Cranshaw said. “But, we’ve got lots of retired people and nursing home patients. Those people are going to need rapid action or there’s going to be lots of deaths.”

Still, Murphysboro resident Claude Lenard says he isn’t concerned.

“Why worry about it? What’re you gonna do?” he said. “Go down to the local bar and have a drink.”

Browning’s prediction two years ago, based on a combination of tides and gravity forces, was ridiculed by most scientists, but people living along the fault took precautions, including closing some schools.

These days, earthquakes aren’t often the subject of conversation, said Linda Crabtree, who lives near Carbondale and works in Murphysboro.

“There are some people who still have a lot of things prepared for it in case it does happen,” she said, but “right now they haven’t said much about it.”