Regional Outlook : Recession, Corruption Fuel Latin Coup Jitters : The region has made enormous progress toward democracy. But decades of military-dominated history are hard to erase.

The first time a handful of disaffected army officers and men slipped from their barracks and slouched toward this city’s presidential palace, their failed coup attempt might have been written off as an isolated, almost loony act of no particular importance beyond the borders of Venezuelan politics.

But when it happened again just eight months later, the sight of rebel aircraft and mutinous tanks attacking the institutions in one of Latin America’s longest functioning democracies disinterred the once-buried fear of regional military dictatorships.

“If the military is a threat here, after 34 years of democracy, it is ominous everywhere else,” said Jose Rodriguez Iturbe, the chairman of the Venezuelan Congressional Defense Committee.

“You already see powerful armed forces playing a huge political role in Peru,” Rodriguez Iturbe, a Social Democrat, said in an interview.

“(Gen. Augusto) Pinochet still heads the military (in Chile), the army is increasingly a power in Colombia, a general is president in Paraguay. Even in Argentina, we are worried by the dissatisfaction among the army.”

Rodriguez Iturbe was speaking just two days after major elements of Venezuela’s air force and navy had tried on Nov. 27 to overthrow the country’s elected government.

The trauma of that coup attempt, which brought more than 200 deaths and which followed a similar effort last Feb. 4, may account for a certain sense of near-hysteria in his conclusion that “everywhere you look the military is a threat.”

But there is reason for concern, particularly since the democratic dominance of South and Central America is relatively recent and the failure of politically promised economic prosperity has led to discontent in many countries of the region.

Granted, these are not the chaotic and violent days of the 1960s and ‘70s when armed forces throughout Latin America used the threat of communism, corruption and civilian anarchy to justify grabbing power.

In fact, just nine days after the failed coup, Venezuela held regional elections without any interference from the military.

Argentina has survived several violent coup attempts and has tamed its wild economy. Brazil’s once-politicized army sits with arms folded on the sidelines as the country’s civilian government undergoes the uncertainty and pain of the impeachment of an elected president.

Even in Chile, where Pinochet, who acted as dictator for nearly 17 years, still grumbles threats, elected leaders continue to strengthen both the political system and the economy.

And today, the once military-dominated government of El Salvador and the militant guerrilla movement are to complete a peace accord that depends in large part not only on demobilizing a major part of the government armed forces but also on punishing more than 100 officers for human rights violations.

In increasing numbers, Latin American nations are passing the test applied by political scientists to judge the viability of democracy: the transfer of power from one elected government to another, often opposition--but also elected--government.

Yet reasons for concern cannot be ignored.

The threat, real or imagined, of Communist-inspired movements may be gone, but there is plenty of the kind of instability used by past generals to take over.

A recession has left many Latin Americans grumbling over the promises of prosperity that the political establishment failed to deliver. Falling standards of living--as well as the loss of prestige and honor that has accompanied their loss of power--also are a powerful cause of disillusionment within the military.

Corruption is another. In Venezuela, coup leaders played to a wide public perception of extreme political corruption and spoke bitterly of a system that punished members of the armed forces while politicians escaped.

But corruption cuts both ways. One reason for some officers to try to weaken democratic governments, if not throw them over, is the money to be made from corruption, particularly in drugs.

And certainly not least in contributing to the fear is a historically rooted military conviction that only the armed forces are the true protectors of independence, sovereignty and what the generals always call La Patria-- the Fatherland.

The military led the revolutions against colonialism and generally followed up independence by taking political power. Politicians were, and still are, seen by many officers as corrupt instruments of self-serving class or economic interests.

What helps tip the balance in democracy’s favor at the moment is the absence of any strong middle-class support for a military coup in most countries. The Brazilian coup in 1964, the Chilean coup in 1973 and the Argentine coup in 1976 all had major civilian support.

Some speculate that with so many civilian governments across the region, a critical mass for democracy has been reached. Also, democratic developments in other parts of the world reinforce the democratic trend in Latin America. And energetic recent U.S. policy in favor of civilian rule--in marked contrast with pro-military policies of conservative U.S. administrations in the past--also has been persuasive.

Here is a look at the military-democratic status in key Latin American countries.

Peru

President Alberto Fujimori seemed to open a Pandora’s box when he dissolved Congress on April 5 and suspended the constitution in a military-backed “self-coup,” ending 12 years of uninterrupted civilian government.

Fujimori, elected in 1990, argued that corrupt and recalcitrant congressmen and judges had been blocking his efforts to fight guerrillas, drug traffickers and poverty.

But his unconstitutional use of military force backfired briefly on Nov. 13 when a few disgruntled active and retired army officers tried to overthrow him.

The bloodless rebellion fizzled, but widespread military discontent continues. Because of stingy operating budgets and low pay, waves of officers are leaving the service. At the same time, many officers seethe over what they regard as meddling by Fujimori in military promotions, assignments and retirements.

One mitigating factor against another coup soon is Fujimori’s popularity with workers and businessmen. His government’s claim to legitimacy was further reinforced Nov. 22 when voters elected a new 80-member legislature with a pro-Fujimori majority.

Chile

Nothing raises military tension in Chile more than prosecution of its officers for human rights violations committed from 1973 to 1990 under military rule. Since the return of civilian government, investigations of tortures, killings and disappearances have stirred recurrent worries about a possible military rebellion.

The most explosive case is a Supreme Court inquiry into the 1976 assassination of Chilean exile Orlando Letelier in Washington.

In November, the Supreme Court justice investigating the case filed formal charges of homicide against the two men who headed Chile’s intelligence police when Letelier was killed--retired Gen. Manuel Contreras and Brig. Gen. Pedro Espinoza.

An amnesty decree protects most officers from prosecution for human rights violations before 1978, with exceptions that include the Letelier case. But exceptions, and violations that occurred after the decree took effect, are subject to judicial action.

President Patricio Aylwin has shown diplomatic deference toward Pinochet and the army, but he has proposed new legislation to give the executive branch more control over the armed forces. Military men and most conservative politicians bridle at such attempts to limit military autonomy.

Pinochet, who remains as army commander until 1997 under a constitutional provision passed while he was in power, commented somewhat ominously in September that the army is “stoic in the face of pressures and mistreatment and sleeps like a lion.”

No one expects a showdown soon, but the continuing friction between military and civilian forces sparks fears among many Chileans that Pinochet’s sleeping lion might someday wake up roaring.

Argentina

Since Argentina’s armed forces restored civilian rule in 1983, disgruntled army officers have rebelled four times. In the latest open uprising, in December, 1990, mutinous troops briefly seized several military installations around Buenos Aires in what the civilian government called a coup attempt. Fighting killed 13 people before loyal troops put the rebellion down.

There have been no revolts since then, but discontent still smolders in the armed forces. Morale is abysmal, and pay is so low that many officers find “no other solution than abandoning their military careers,” Nestor Cruces, an Argentine expert on military affairs, wrote in a recent article.

Meanwhile, the newspaper La Nacion reported that the military leadership is upset about deterioration in the armed forces’ stock of weapons and equipment. A government emergency program of economic austerity has cut funds for military repairs and replacements to almost nothing. “The military accept the emergency but say it cannot go on longer,” La Nacion said.

While holding down military budgets, President Carlos Saul Menem has taken some positions to appease the armed forces, such as pardoning five members of military juntas that ruled Argentina from 1976 to 1983. The five had been convicted of murder and human rights abuses.

Paraguay

Rumors of a possible Paraguayan coup have cropped up in recent months with a rash of corruption charges against high military officers for taking bribes to let stolen cars cross the border.

More than a dozen officers have been charged in the case, including Gen. Humberto Garcete, who was suspended as the army’s commander, and three other generals.

Gen. Alfredo Stroessner, who ruled the country for nearly 35 years, fell in a 1989 coup led by Gen. Andres Rodriguez, his military deputy. Rodriguez won presidential elections three months later and has opened the way for a civilian president to be elected in 1993.

Paraguayan political analysts say the democratic process appears to remain on track, but trouble could come if the scheduled elections point toward more investigations and purges of the army.

Brazil

Brazil, Latin America’s biggest country, has suffered a far deeper political and economic crisis than Venezuela in the past year, but the Brazilian armed forces have stood firmly in favor of constitutional rule. And the Brazilian constitution has permitted a non-military way of removing a president: impeachment.

With the economy in deep recession and inflation racing at more than 20% a month, a congressional investigation led to the impeachment of President Fernando Collor de Mello on charges of profiting from a multimillion-dollar network of influence-peddling and graft.

Repeatedly, the armed forces made it clear that they would not intervene unless widespread street disturbances led to chaos. A final judgment by the national Senate, which would permanently depose the suspended president, is scheduled for Dec. 22.

The Brazilian armed forces learned their lesson from two decades in power after a 1964 coup. When the generals relinquished power in 1985, the country was an economic and political wreck. Even during the worst moments of Collor’s crisis this year, few Brazilians expressed any nostalgia for military rule, including the military.

El Salvador

Salvadoran President Alfredo Cristiani has embarked on the enormously delicate mission of purging the powerful armed forces of their worst human rights abusers and most corrupt officers.

The purge, as required by the peace accords that ended a 12-year civil war, is seen as a key test of whether El Salvador can change a long, brutal military domination of politics in which the U.S.-backed armed forces have almost always gone unpunished for crimes ranging from torture to mass murder.

Under the accords, a three-member civilian commission drew up a still-secret list recommending the dismissal or transfer of more than 100 officers, reportedly including the defense minister, Gen. Rene Emilio Ponce, and his deputy, Gen. Juan Orlando Zepeda. There is speculation that many purged officers will get golden parachutes--postings as embassy attaches, for example--so they are allowed to save face. And some have built up substantial business ventures that they can turn to for continued lives of comfort.

Potentially more troubling to the military is the work of a second group--the so-called Truth Commission. This body was also set up as part of the peace accords, but unlike its counterpart overseeing the purge, the Truth Commission is to report on specific abuses and who committed them, creating a basis for possible prosecution. It is examining thousands of alleged human rights violations and is expected to come down hard on the military when it issues its report next month.

As the scope of the purge commission’s recommendations became known, top military leaders became increasingly vocal about their displeasure. Zepeda and a handful of military officers are hinting that they may resist the purge. Zepeda met early last month with a group of wealthy right-wing businessmen to explore ways to “strengthen the spirit of struggle for a true democracy.”

But both Cristiani and military leaders vehemently deny a coup is in the works. Coups, said Ponce, “are a thing of the past.”

Times staff writer Tracy Wilkinson in San Salvador contributed to this article.

The Military Shadow Latin America has been plagued with military control and coups. Some events in nations profiled on this page: 1962-- In Argentina, military coup deposes elected President Arturo Frondizi. 1964-- Brazilian military leaders take over, imposing censorship and supressing opposition. 1966-- In Argentina, coup overthrows another elected president, Arturo Illia. 1968-- Peruvian military coup brings Gen. Juan Velasco Alvarado to power. 1970-- In Chile, Marxist Salvador Allende is elected president--the first in a non-communist country freely elected on a Marxist-Leninist program. 1973-- In Argentina, President Juan D. Peron returns to office. Chile’s Allende dies during an army coup; former army chief of staff Augusto Pinochet takes power. 1974-- Argentina’s Peron dies; his wife becomes chief of state. 1975-- In Peru, another coup replaces Velasco. 1976-- Argentine military junta deposes Maria Estela Peron. 1979-- El Salvador junta deposes the president. 1980-- Fernando Belaunde Terry, Peru’s last previous civilian preisdent, is reelected. Jose Napoleon Duarte, a civilian, named as head of Salvadoran junta. 1983-- In Argentina, democratic rule returns with election of Raul Alfonsin as president. 1985-- First civilian president since 1964 elected in Brazil.

1988-- Chile’s Pinochet is rejected in a plebiscite. The next year, Patricio Aylwin is elected president. 1989-- Paraguay’s Gen. Alfredo Stroessner is ousted after 35 years in power by Gen. Andres Rodriguez, who is later elected president. 1990-- In Argentina, an attempted army coup fails as most commanders stand by the government. In Peru, Alberto Fujimori is elected president. 1992-- Peru’s Fujimori dissolves Congress and suspends constitution. 1992-- In El Salvador, government signs peace treaty with guerrillas to end 12-year civil war. In Venezuela, loyal soldiers put down attempted coup against President Carlos Andres Perez. Source: 1993 World Almanac and 1993; Information Please Almanac.