War Stance Gave Aspin Edge for Cabinet : Transition: Nunn chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee and was the leader on defense issues until he opposed action in the Persian Gulf.

Two years ago this week, defense secretary nominee Les Aspin, who today faces the Senate Armed Services Committee in confirmation hearings, issued a prediction about the Persian Gulf War that proved to be right on the money.

“I believe prospects are high for a rapid victory with light to moderate casualties,” Aspin wrote.

Four days later, on Jan. 12, 1991, Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and Congress’ undisputed defense titan, voted against the Persian Gulf War resolution. For a lawmaker with Nunn’s reputation for probity and for legislative success, that vote became an enduring source of discomfort.

Aspin voted with the majority in favor of the resolution.

In less than a week, the fortunes of Nunn and Aspin had changed. Their very different actions, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said, tilted the balance of power between the two lawmakers.

Afterward, said McCain, a member of Nunn’s committee, “I saw Aspin approaching parity with Sen. Nunn. I saw him increase in stature over the past two to three years.”

Besides transforming the relationship between the two men, who had long jousted for primacy in military matters, the incidents illustrated the apparent costs and rewards of Nunn’s famous reticence and Aspin’s equally famous willingness to take a bold position, even if it exposes him to attack.

And those contrasting traits landed each man where he is today--Aspin will be seated before Nunn as President-elect Bill Clinton’s defense secretary-designate.

Committee members said Aspin will be asked to give his views on the shrinking of the military, on defense needs, on the conversion of the defense industry and on the justifiable use of military force.

And Nunn, ever the defense owl, will be asking most of the questions but keeping his opinions to himself.

Three years ago, most observers of defense politics would have predicted that Nunn would be in Aspin’s seat. “It’s funny how their roles have been reversed,” one Democratic House aide said.

Although the two lawmakers’ dueling expertise is virtually certain to bubble to the surface, Aspin’s and Nunn’s repartee is expected to be the very picture of mutual respect.

That is because Aspin, who has openly moved to the right in recent years, and Nunn, who has always been on the right, likely will be frequent allies in the coming four years. As Aspin seeks to cut defense spending and to maintain the core of U.S. combat power, longtime Congress watchers said he may find a more potent champion in Nunn than he will in Rep. Ronald V. Dellums (D-Berkeley), who is expected to succeed Aspin as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.

“I think they’ll work very closely together,” McCain said. “What I can envision is a new chairman or forces running the House Armed Services Committee that could swing it in a much more liberal direction, and that could lead to problems from Aspin. I expect Aspin increasingly to be in league with Nunn, and occasionally to have to call on people like me and others who are occasionally more conservative than the Democrats.”

Nunn declined to be interviewed for this story, but staff aides said the Senate panel will treat Aspin as they have any other candidate. Knowledgeable committee sources said background checks of Aspin have turned up nothing that would make him unsuitable for the job.

Aides said Aspin is braced to answer pointed questions about the Aspin Procurement Institute, a taxpayer-funded organization designed to funnel more defense dollars into Aspin’s home state of Wisconsin. McCain and others predicted that senators will ask about the institute but not make it a dominant issue.

Nunn’s committee has pored over reams of Aspin speeches, reports and press releases, reflecting views that appear to have evolved and changed substantially during Aspin’s 22 years in Congress. In 1992 alone, Aspin released almost 50 such records of his views, including those on proliferation of nuclear weapons, lessons of the Persian Gulf War and analysis of future defense budget requirements.