Executives Hint Job Market Is Looking Up--a Little Bit : Survey: More than a fifth of Orange County firms plan to do some hiring this year. Still, 9% expect to trim staffs.
Call it a renewed sense of hope, or call it a feeling that things couldn’t possibly get worse.
Whichever, Orange County’s business community expressed some optimism about 1993 in a survey commissioned by Thomas Temporaries in Irvine. Of the 204 executives interviewed here, 21% said they plan to hire this year, while only 9% foresee staff cuts.
Last year, the same survey showed that 18% of Orange County companies responding expected employment increases, offset by 17% who feared payroll slashes.
Still, the mild boost in confidence is somewhat pale compared to similar statistics tabulated during the growth years of the mid- to late 1980s, when about 28% of companies polled wanted to beef up their staffs and only about 7% expected to cut back.
While the rosier outlook may be guarded--and due in part to the fact that many companies have already whittled down as far as they can--Orange County appears to be wearing a bigger smile than the rest of Southern California. On average, 16% of companies surveyed in the six-county region expect staff increases; 10% must downsize.
“Orange County really took it between the eyes in 1992, so our frame of reference is that everyone has already done a lot of employee cutbacks and can’t go any lower,” said Gene. C. Wilson, president of Thomas Temporaries, which has 19 offices across Southern California.
The company has commissioned the annual poll, conducted by Strategic Consulting & Research in Irvine, since 1984. This year’s results are based on interviews with 1,335 business executives.
San Diego also fared better than other counties in the survey. As in Orange County, 21% of those polled predicted some hiring this year. Seven percent--compared to 9% in Orange County--said that 1993 has layoffs in store.
“Orange and San Diego counties have suffered more from their reliance on down industries like defense and real estate,” Wilson said. “But they also have a greater concentration of major growth industries in the high-tech, health-care and biomedical fields.”
Esmael Adibi, director of the Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange, said the survey’s results “are more or less consistent with our own data.”
“The recession has bottomed out, and we are gradually getting an upswing,” Adibi said. “By mid-1993, we expect to see more positive numbers on the job front.”
Business executives also were asked in the survey if they are interested in relocating their companies out of state during 1993. In Orange County, 91% of interviewees said they are unlikely or highly unlikely to move, 3% said relocation is highly likely, and 5% said that a move is somewhat likely.
Los Angeles County did worst in that category, with 11% of respondents considering a move. Only 3% of executives in San Bernardino County said they are thinking about pulling up stakes.
“San Bernardino County has a lower cost of living than Los Angeles and Orange counties,” Wilson said. “It also has more businesses new to the area that aren’t in a hurry to move again.”
Hiring Outlook A survey of 1,335 executives across Southern California indicates that an overwhelming majority will probably maintain the status quo this year in regard to both employment and relocating their operations. Most Will Keep Staff the Same Orange and San Diego County employers are the most optimistic about the first half of 1993. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed in both counties say they expect to increase their permanent office staffs.
County Increase Decrease Same Orange 21% 9% 70% Los Angeles 16% 13% 71% San Diego 21% 7% 72% Riverside 16% 7% 77% San Bernardino 10% 12% 78%
Staying in Southern California Though the overwhelming majority of employers in the survey intend to stay put, an alarming 12% in Los Angeles County say they are likely to move out of the area, followed by 9% for Riverside County and 8% for Orange County.
Highly Somewhat Highly County Unlikely Unlikely Likely Likely Orange 80% 12% 5% 3% Los Angeles 76% 12% 4% 8% San Diego 82% 12% 3% 3% Riverside 85% 6% 6% 3% San Bernardino 79% 18% 2% 1%
What concerns employers most More than government regulations or qualifications of applicants, health-careissues are foremost in the minds of Orange County employers. Major Concern Workers’ compensation 32% Health-care costs 31% General education of applicants 10% Americans with Disabilities Act 10% Technical training of applicants 8% State regulations in general 8% Federal regulations in general 2% Other 2% Note: Totals more than 100% because of multiple reponses. Source: Thomas Temporaries, Irvine
