Iraq Waffles on Missile Pullout : Gulf: Hussein may have begun moving some arms from ‘no-fly zone,’ but Baghdad hasn’t agreed to West’s ultimatum. An air strike hangs in the balance.

The prospect of a new allied air strike against Iraq hung in the balance Thursday as Baghdad sent mixed signals over whether it plans to comply with Western demands to remove its antiaircraft missiles from the “no-fly zone” in southern Iraq by late today.

Barely 24 hours after the allies issued their ultimatum, Nizar Hamdoon, the Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations, met briefly with his counterparts from the United States, Britain, France and Russia. But he refused to say whether his government would meet their demands.

Western intelligence sources said Iraq did appear to have begun moving some missiles. But they added it still is unclear whether the Iraqis were taking them out of the no-fly zone--where the allies, in a move to protect Shiite Muslims in the region, said Iraqi military aircraft may not travel--or merely shuffling them.

Some Western analysts suggested that Baghdad may have wanted to use Thursday’s grace period to assert its independence as a face-saving gesture before removing the missiles from the zone just before 2:15 p.m. PST today, when the 48-hour deadline expires.

Part of the problem in discerning the Iraqis’ intentions was heavy cloud cover over southern Iraq, which apparently hid some missile-moving activity from Western intelligence satellites. The Iraqis also appeared to be moving the missiles slowly, to avoid providing any clear direction.

Administration officials and allied diplomats were cautious about predicting what Iraq will do. “We’re just going to have to wait it out,” one well-placed policy-maker said.

On Wednesday, the four allied powers, all permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, gave Iraq 48 hours to remove its Soviet-built SA-2 and SA-3 missiles or face possible military action in the form of U.S. and allied air strikes.

American officials say Iraq has been breaching the no-fly zone in recent weeks to test the West’s resolve, particularly during the transition between the administrations of President Bush and President-elect Bill Clinton. On Dec. 27, U.S. jets downed an Iraqi fighter over the zone.

U.S. officials continued to hold firm Thursday on the allied ultimatum, with Bush reiterating to a group of freshmen members of Congress that Washington is prepared to begin military action against Iraq if Baghdad fails to comply with the allied instructions.

Clinton again endorsed Bush’s stand on the Iraqi issue. Clinton’s spokesman, George Stephanopoulos, called Iraqi President Saddam Hussein “an outlaw” and warned that Clinton will be no easier on him than Bush has been.

Pentagon planners said that Washington, for now, intends to hold any military action to a quick, single-day’s strike, eliminating Iraqi missile positions in southern Iraq and possibly destroying several airfields used by jets near the border of the no-fly zone. The action, however, will be dictated by Hussein’s responses, officials have said.

Besides high-performance fighter jets now based in Saudi Arabia, the United States has a carrier battle group built around the Kitty Hawk stationed in the Persian Gulf. It includes about 80 combat aircraft and 11 other surface ships. It also has fighter and surveillance craft, including some radar-evading F-117 Stealth fighters and U-2 spy planes. Britain and France also have aircraft in the region, but they are not expected to participate heavily in any strike.

But American officials said that, if Iraq decides to stand its ground--or even escalates the action--it could push the two countries into their hottest military confrontation since the Persian Gulf War in early 1991. “We’re not looking to do more than we have to, but we can’t accept less than full compliance and non-interference,” one U.S. official said.

Iraq’s behavior Thursday appeared to bolster suspicions that Hussein is trying to use the time to save face politically and buy more time before finally deciding how to respond to the allied threat.

Early in the day, Deputy Prime Minister Tarik Aziz issued a statement saying Iraq has a “sovereign right” to deploy its missiles as it chooses and asserting that the no-fly zone, imposed by the allies and not the Security Council, has no validity in Iraq.

The Iraqi News Agency reported that Hussein also met privately Thursday with his Revolutionary Command Council and leaders of the ruling Arab Baath Socialist Party--a standard procedure when the government wants to build resolve at home.

Western diplomats said that Hamdoon made precisely the same point as Aziz during his meeting with the allied ambassadors late Thursday, handing them a four-page paper that again asserted Iraq’s rights of sovereignty and rejected the no-fly zone as illegal.

But they said Hamdoon refused to answer directly when asked by the allies whether Iraq intends to comply with the coalition’s demands.

Questioned by reporters later on whether Iraq would remove the missiles, Hamdoon told Reuters news agency that “I have not addressed the question of the missiles per se. . . . The Iraqi response was focused on the Iraqi right of sovereignty in moving its civilian and military materiel within the space and within the territory of the country. Iraq has decided not to give up that right.”

Inexplicably, Hamdoon also invited an American congressional delegation to visit Baghdad, suggesting that “such a delegation from both the Senate and the House, going to see the situation in the field . . . would be welcome.”

Western officials appeared to be confounded by the Iraqi response. Edward J. Perkins, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said the allies have decided to relay the reply to their capitals and await further instructions.

But Thomas Richardson, the deputy British ambassador to the world body, warned that “at the end of the day, the essential question is whether the Iraqis will remove the missiles” from the no-fly zone. “So in a sense the question depends on what happens on the ground,” he said.

Pentagon officials declined to say precisely when the air strikes would begin, if Iraq misses today’s deadline.