Troops Must Not Become Bogged Down : With U.S. pullout planned, Somalia’s destiny may lie with reconciliation talks in spring

Somalia’s rival warlords moved closer Friday to a political solution that could disarm their loyalists, end the fighting and alleviate the famine. The internecine enemies--including the obstructionist Mohammed Farah Aidid--agreed to a national reconciliation conference, which will be in March or April.

In the best case, those U.N.-sponsored peace talks could lead to the first formal government since the ouster of Somalia’s dictator, the corrupt killer Mohammed Siad Barre.

If the optimism prevails, the new government will share the spoils of power, and keep the peace. If that happens, U.N. peacekeeping troops will inherit an easier mission; they will simply maintain the security established by U.S. troops. But if clan loyalties prevail, the fighting will resume, forcing U.N. troops to do battle.

Whatever occurs, most of the U.S. troops are scheduled to return home in March. Although that deadline may be a bit generous, depending on the timing of the reconciliation conference, the March target pressures the United Nations to prepare to take over the mission. Americans must not become mired in Somalia.

There is no question that American military might was needed in Somalia. The U.S. military intervention, which began a month ago, on Dec. 9, secured the port, the airport and the roads used by relief convoys responding to an epidemic of starvation.

Although the humanitarian mission did not include a blanket disarmament, Marines did capture the weapons compound of Aidid, after his men refused to heed warnings to stop firing on U.S. soldiers and helicopters. Marines also eliminated a major gun market in an operation that netted 250 assault rifles, several machine guns, two armored personnel carriers, a small tank and plenty of ammunition. And in a successful “food for guns” exchange, U.S. troops collected more than 200 firearms.

The loss of his arms cache may have changed the mind of Aidid, who was the last holdout in the informal talks held last week in Ethiopia.

Aidid was also pressured by Ethiopia’s President Meles Zenawi, who sternly lectured the warring factions. Those comments were significant because the Organization of African Unity encourages heads of states to stay out of the affairs of their neighbors.

As many as 350,000 Somalis have died from starvation, disease or warfare since Siad Barre’s ouster ignited a bloody power struggle that exacerbated the effects of a severe drought. Now, because of U.S. clout, more Somalis are eating, fewer are dying--and enemies are talking. But the United States cannot guarantee a lasting peace. Only the Somalis can guarantee reconciliation and recovery.